In Portugal, pessimism about the country's chances for prospering in the euro
zone is growing as the economy remains depressed, even though Portugal has done
everything asked of it under its €78 billion ($101 billion) bailout from the
European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Budget cuts have hit
domestic demand hard, while exports aren't growing much amid slumps in other
euro-zone economies, including Spain, Portugal's largest customer. Indeed, the
Portuguese economy is expected to contract for the third consecutive year in
2013. This past Thursday, at one of the many recent public debates on the
euro. Mr. Ferreira do Amaral faced off against prominent Socialist politician
and euro supporter João Galamba. "I believe we should openly discuss all the
alternatives there are for us to exit this crisis," Mr. Galamba said, though
adding: "Leaving the euro isn't a solution, unless we want to isolate ourselves
completely from the rest of the European Union, which would be a catastrophe."
The debate sparked a lively discussion in the audience, with many arguing for a
return to the former national currency, the escudo. "People say if we leave the
euro our salaries and savings will fall, and we will find ourselves isolated
again; but how is that different from now?" said Nuno Pires, a 30-year-old
business consultant who attended. "I now think we have a better chance of
recovery if we leave," he added. Mr. Ferreira do Amaral, a 64-year-old
economics professor at the Technical University of Lisbon and a former
finance-ministry official, says the only hope is to return to a national
currency that would devalue sharply, making Portuguese products cheaper abroad
and spurring exports. Under Portugal's 2011 bailout, deep public spending cuts,
tax increases and labor-market overhauls were supposed to attract investment and
spur economic growth by this year. But the benefits aren't in sight. And
slumping economic output is keeping Portugal's deficit wide, as austerity forces
the government to cut spending and employment further. "We are now at a stage
where it is becoming clear the austerity policy isn't working despite all our
efforts," says Mr. Ferreira do Amaral says "The next step is for us to realize
the euro simply isn't sustainable for Portugal." The idea of leaving the euro
makes many uneasy. In a televised debate, ex-Finance Minister João Salgueiro
warned that even talk of leaving may harm Portugal. "All the investments that
come in will be at a higher cost," he said.Mr. Ferreira do Amaral is getting
some high-profile backers. This month, Supreme Court of Justice President Luís
António Noronha Nascimento called for Portugal and other Southern European
countries to quit the euro, warning the gap between Europe's richer and poorer
states will keep widening otherwise.Whether the debate gains traction depends on
the economy, analysts say. Portugal's government insists the long-awaited
recovery will arrive in 2014, but many economists doubt that. If the recession
continues, politicians will need to enact even more budget cuts to meet EU
deficit targets. "It may become too hard for politicians to sell austerity
measure after austerity measure," says Antonio Costa Pinto, political scientist
at the University of Lisbon. "This could create the perfect environment for a
shift of ideas."...A version of this article appeared May 28, 2013, on page A16
in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Idea of Euro
Exit Finds Currency in Portugal.
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