Access Investments-European Union- ROMANIA

Jan Koum, a poor Ukrainian who moved to the US, just sold his company, WhatsApp, to Facebook for ... $19 billion. You wonder why the country is so retarded when they produce such brilliant people. Or is it the fact that he is Jewish ?

Clearly the EU is not ready to impose sanctions in Ukraine. Sanctions need to follow a strategy. Otherwise sanctions are symbolic, just a fatalist admission of self-defeat. The strategy is currently simply not there.

The Council conclusions on Ukraine increasingly read like the ones for Syria. This is simply disgraceful.

The strategy requires foremost an entry and exit strategy based on a clear identification of overall objectives structured in a time sequence. The entry strategy needs to assure that sanctions are effective from the beginning. Sanctions should therefore target people that will be hurt by them in fact and who have real influence over events. Officials with no assets abroad and/or with no real power could be sanctioned for symbolic reasons, but that is just for show. In the current juncture sanctions need to be directed against known corrupt officials and already well known regime backing oligarchs. The exit strategy is related to the question of what to do if initial sanctions fail. Would there be an escalation of sanctions, for example trade measures. Fact is only trade sanctions seem to work. Compare Belarus and Iran for example.

Currently Belarus is nominally under EU sanctions, yet the EU still trades with Lukashenko controlled state owned or influenced enterprises, in effect backing him indirectly.

The sequencing of sanctions has to take into account entry and exit considerations, which means sanctions not necessarily need to name names. Sanctions can be imposed on a category of persons or on account of particular events:

1) regime financiers;

2) regime propagandists;

3) senior repressive officials;

4) preemptively on election officials that go against free elections.

As regards oligarchs it is time to impose sanctions in the following way:

a) immediate sanctions on all known regime backers;

b) sanctions will be reviewed every week to ascertain whether they should be lifted.

In the case of opposition leaders sanctions should be imposed against those:

a) that fail to engage in good faith negotiations;

b) that fail to condemn takeover attempts against the Parliament, President, Prime Minister, Council of Ministers, Armed Forces, Supreme and Constitutional Courts seats.

There needs to be a consensus as regards where protests will be allowed. This should include the recognition of the Maidan as a sort of sanctuary.

In the case of Yanukovich sanctions should come into force only if there is:

a) another attempt at a crackdown on the Maidan;

b) declares a state of emergency or equivalent formal measures;

c) moves against free elections.

The EU needs to stop mediating and try to arbitrate the conflict. Successful arbitration in favor of both sides would give it the influence it has never had over the affairs of the country. Sanctions need to be tailored to enable the arbitration, not hamper it.

The idea of sanctioning all “violent protesters” is false equivalency to the point of amorality and ridicule.

The current idea of trying to sanction and investigate via a Council of Europe panel members of the security forces that have “violated or abused the law” is counterproductive. It makes the security forces identify with Yanukovich´s regime when they are following instructions. The West should make clear that no one that is following instructions will be prosecuted, even if they commit abuses. The Berkut are also victims in this tragedy, they are doing their job; even if there are abuses, this is secondary because in conflict such as this this is inevitable on both sides. Anyone not subject to presidential or ministerial appointment should be spared. The West should encourage defection instead. Maybe there should be an offer of asylum or financial aid to senior officers that defect.

The responsibility has to be laid clearly, squarely and exclusively at the regime and those that financially and propagandistically back it (and yes this should include reporters working for the regime).

The Dutch foreign minister is wrong. Democracy is both easy to coopt and repress.

Anything coming from French and German politicians has to be scrutinized for hypocrisy, doublespeak and misinformation. How can the chair of an European Parliament committee say such a lie as blaming the EU institutions for not taking action when it has been the French and Germans that have been encouraging Putinism for more than a decade.