The leading oil producer in Latin America, Venezuela, was meanwhile negotiating another big loan with China, as it takes a battering from the price drop and its own planned economy. While Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was in Beijing on , the daily El Nacional reported that China had already lent Venezuela more than $50 billion since 2007, though about half of that had been written off. Every Venezuelan it noted, owed China over $761. In oil-rich Mexico, experts were observing that the state may well have to envisage smaller budgets for several years, not just this year, as Mexico's own export blend may end up costing around just $30 a barrel. Milenio newspaper cited the Senate President Miguel Barbosa as suggesting that the cabinet should start drafting "austerity" plans — a word rarely heard in Mexico. The South China Morning Post reported on the economic stakes of the visit of Latin American leaders in China, although the Hong Kong daily also noted that the first windfall of lower oil prices could be felt in the air: lower costs for the world's airlines.  Analysts around the world widely agree that the most notable new factor in the current trend in energy production is the flood of mostly American-extracted shale gas into the market.  The Guardian notes that U.S. oil production has increased 48% over the past five years, which was originally offset by drops elsewhere. But as demand has also abated, prices have dropped, and may continue downward. Stephen Schork, a U.S.-based market analyst, told the London daily that investor “psychology” is driving oil trading. “We could get a rebound to $70 but we could see $30 before we see $70.”  The political ramifications weigh in the most immediate way on Russia, which may have to reconsider its aggressive policy towards  Ukraine, as it suffers the effects of both "western" sanctions and the sustained drop in oil prices.

Ukraine has launched an "anti-terrorist" operation against pro-Russian separatists occupying government buildings in many of its eastern cities

Police arrested 70 pro-Russian demonstrators in Kharkiv on Tuesday, as protesters in two other cities held similar standoffs. Ukrainian authorities gave few details of the "operation that cleared the building in Kharkiv but said two police had been wounded by a grenade.

Ukrainian special forces in combat gear, helmets and balaclavas and carrying machine guns stood guard outside the building early on Tuesday. A partly destroyed sign near the main door read: "Avakov – to jail", a reference to the Ukrainian interior minister, Arsen Avakov.

Avakov made mention of the operation to clear the buildings on his Facebook page: "An anti-terrorist operation has been launched. The city center is blocked along with metro stations. Do not worry. Once we finish, we will open them again."

The Interfax-Ukraine news agency quoted the interior ministry saying those detained were suspected of "illegal activity related to separatism, the organization of mass disorder, damage to human health" and breaking other laws.

Ukraine's acting president, Oleksander Turchinov, made a televised address to the nation in which he accused Moscow of orchestrating the protests in an attempt to repeat "the Crimea scenario".

Russia has denied Ukrainian charges of involvement but warned Kiev against any use of force against Russian-speakers. On Tuesday, Russia's foreign ministry called on Kiev to stop massing military forces it said were tasked with suppressing anti-government protests in the south-east of the country.

"We call for an immediate halt to military preparations which could lead to an outbreak of civil war," the ministry said in a statement.

The pro-Russian protesters still barricaded inside official buildings in Luhansk and Donetsk demanded that referendums be held on whether to join Russia, similar to the one that preceded Moscow's annexation of Crimea.

The Ukrainian uprising has naturally tended to monopolize the attention of the European media. For mature Western democracies, the spectacle of tens of thousands of citizens armed only with candles and posters asserting their rights against a corrupt and ruthless regime is the ultimate psychodrama. Nothing better replenishes the charisma of democracy than observing the violent convulsions of its birth. The difficulty of the current crisis lies precisely in the folding together of these very disparate narratives: civil strife, geopolitical tension and imperial expansion. The arrangements put in place since the collapse of the Soviet Union have added a further layer of complexity. Meanwhile, the EU has invested deeply in the process of democratization in the Ukraine. The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement signed in 1998 exists to sustain political and economic transformation within the partner state. Ratification of a new "Association Agreement" negotiated in 2007-2011 and incorporating a "deep and comprehensive free trade area" was made conditional upon the implementation of key domestic reform targets.

By contrast, NATO, as the alliance formed to protect Western interests in the Cold War, is focused firmly on the global balance of power, just as the Crimean coalition was in the 1850s. NATO and the EU are not coextensive and not identical in their interests. When the Americans, the Poles and the Baltic states proposed the extension of NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008, France and Germany objected, just as Prussia refused to join the anti-Russian Western coalition of 1854-5. Lastly, there is the complex political demography of Ukraine, itself the legacy of centuries of Russian penetration and settlement. The deep ethnic divisions in the country, the jigsaw of autonomous regional "republics" and the special constitutional and military status of the Crimean peninsula make no sense without this history.

Shooting and explosions have been heard as Russian troops backed by armoured vehicles stormed a Ukrainian airbase in Crimea.

Reports say at least one person was injured during the assault on Belbek base, near Sevastopol. The base is now said to be under Russian control.

Earlier, several hundred unarmed protesters seized a Ukrainian naval base at Novofedorivka, western Crimea.

Pro-Russian militia have also been seizing Ukrainian navy ships.

The BBC's Ian Pannell, in Crimea, says the Ukrainian troops on the peninsula feel beleaguered and abandoned by their commanders in Ukraine.

On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law formalising Russia's takeover of Crimea from Ukraine, despite fresh sanctions from the EU and the US.

'All is in smoke'

In Belbek, two armoured personnel carriers burst through the wall of the base followed by Russian troops firing weapons in the air.

An ambulance was then seen entering the base amid reports that at least one person was injured.

The Ukrainian soldiers were later gathered at the base main square in front of the heavily armed Russian troops.

The storming followed an ultimatum by the Russians to surrender.
 

Voting has begun in the Crimean referendum

Crimea tries to stand against the coup and the world is looking on with amazement and admiration. Forget the artificial world created and nourished by propaganda and untrue stories. Let’s whisper it, if the truth finds its way through the thick layers of opacity out to the ears of the ordinary people, wherever they are, accumulated anger will blow the hollow bases of the empire to pieces. People in Crimea cannot and will not accept the invasion of the country they have lived in for years. Ukraine does not have any authority of its own and is run by the security agencies from Europe and the US. People in Ukraine have fallen into a very dangerous situation. Their grievances have become an excuse for the empire to step in and swap their government with an undefined group of extremists and/or followers of the empire. We talk about extremists but who are their leaders? Of course they are a collective gathering of “noble” politicians that try very hard to behave civilized but that does not contradict the fact that they commit crimes which make Al-Qaeda’s look very moderate. I’m talking about the western leaders who have been the cause of so many atrocities that their history is nothing but that.

All these leaders are elected again and again while their people are pushed back, marginalized and become the exclusive means of making profit. That is the tragedy which Ukraine cannot get itself out of: following the examples of such leaders or finding a way to true independence and an equal sharing society. It is only Crimea which can solve the bigger issues its own way. They go to the ballot box not to elect a leader like ours but to decide a different way for the future. The road to freedom is long but definitely does not go through the new slavery which the occupied Kiev promises, but rather away from it.

Jan Koum, a poor Ukrainian who moved to the US, just sold his company, WhatsApp, to Facebook for ... $19 billion. You wonder why the country is so retarded when they produce such brilliant people. Or is it the fact that he is Jewish ?

Clearly the EU is not ready to impose sanctions in Ukraine. Sanctions need to follow a strategy. Otherwise sanctions are symbolic, just a fatalist admission of self-defeat. The strategy is currently simply not there.

The Council conclusions on Ukraine increasingly read like the ones for Syria. This is simply disgraceful.

The strategy requires foremost an entry and exit strategy based on a clear identification of overall objectives structured in a time sequence. The entry strategy needs to assure that sanctions are effective from the beginning. Sanctions should therefore target people that will be hurt by them in fact and who have real influence over events. Officials with no assets abroad and/or with no real power could be sanctioned for symbolic reasons, but that is just for show. In the current juncture sanctions need to be directed against known corrupt officials and already well known regime backing oligarchs. The exit strategy is related to the question of what to do if initial sanctions fail. Would there be an escalation of sanctions, for example trade measures. Fact is only trade sanctions seem to work. Compare Belarus and Iran for example.

Currently Belarus is nominally under EU sanctions, yet the EU still trades with Lukashenko controlled state owned or influenced enterprises, in effect backing him indirectly.

The sequencing of sanctions has to take into account entry and exit considerations, which means sanctions not necessarily need to name names. Sanctions can be imposed on a category of persons or on account of particular events:

1) regime financiers;

2) regime propagandists;

3) senior repressive officials;

4) preemptively on election officials that go against free elections.

As regards oligarchs it is time to impose sanctions in the following way:

a) immediate sanctions on all known regime backers;

b) sanctions will be reviewed every week to ascertain whether they should be lifted.

In the case of opposition leaders sanctions should be imposed against those:

a) that fail to engage in good faith negotiations;

b) that fail to condemn takeover attempts against the Parliament, President, Prime Minister, Council of Ministers, Armed Forces, Supreme and Constitutional Courts seats.

There needs to be a consensus as regards where protests will be allowed. This should include the recognition of the Maidan as a sort of sanctuary.

In the case of Yanukovich sanctions should come into force only if there is:

a) another attempt at a crackdown on the Maidan;

b) declares a state of emergency or equivalent formal measures;

c) moves against free elections.

The EU needs to stop mediating and try to arbitrate the conflict. Successful arbitration in favor of both sides would give it the influence it has never had over the affairs of the country. Sanctions need to be tailored to enable the arbitration, not hamper it.

The idea of sanctioning all “violent protesters” is false equivalency to the point of amorality and ridicule.

The current idea of trying to sanction and investigate via a Council of Europe panel members of the security forces that have “violated or abused the law” is counterproductive. It makes the security forces identify with Yanukovich´s regime when they are following instructions. The West should make clear that no one that is following instructions will be prosecuted, even if they commit abuses. The Berkut are also victims in this tragedy, they are doing their job; even if there are abuses, this is secondary because in conflict such as this this is inevitable on both sides. Anyone not subject to presidential or ministerial appointment should be spared. The West should encourage defection instead. Maybe there should be an offer of asylum or financial aid to senior officers that defect.

The responsibility has to be laid clearly, squarely and exclusively at the regime and those that financially and propagandistically back it (and yes this should include reporters working for the regime).

The Dutch foreign minister is wrong. Democracy is both easy to coopt and repress.

Anything coming from French and German politicians has to be scrutinized for hypocrisy, doublespeak and misinformation. How can the chair of an European Parliament committee say such a lie as blaming the EU institutions for not taking action when it has been the French and Germans that have been encouraging Putinism for more than a decade.

What's the safest way to do my online banking: over a wired connection, powerline networking or Wi-Fi?

The answer doesn't matter as much as you might think, but asking the question does mean you're approaching your online security in the right state of mind.

Overall, a wired ethernet link is more secure than either Wi-Fi or powerline networking, in which the electrical wires in your home carry Internet data. To compromise an ethernet network, an attacker needs to get into your house and plug in a laptop, while Wi-Fi signals go beyond your home and powerline networks can leak information to adjacent dwellings.

Both Wi-Fi and powerline setups come with encryption options to scramble data flowing over the network; once you switch them on, an attacker would need to know the password to break in. But Wi-Fi's obsolete WEP encryption can easily be defeated — and is still presented as a valid option in routers' setup routines.

Furthermore, if you leave a router on its default administrative password, somebody who connects to your network can also monkey with the router's settings to redirect your traffic to rogue sites. For much the same reason, you shouldn't automatically trust third-party wireless hot spots.

Financial sites use encryption of their own to scramble data flowing to and from your computer — as reported by your browser with a lock icon in its toolbar that, when clicked, should display an info sheet including the bank's name — and that should almost always outweigh the security of your local network.

(A determined attacker could defeat a bank's login security by persuading a user to connect to a router running malware that subverts this encryption, but this seems to have been a theoretical exercise to date.)

Your local network, however, makes up only one part of the "attack surface" of online banking, and it may not be nearly as profitable as two others: your computer and your mind.

If an attacker can get a keylogger on your computer to record your keystrokes, the strength of your bank's encryption and the complexity and novelty of your password won't matter at all — each tap of the keyboard will have already been recorded and transmitted.

That's why it's important to keep up with security updates for both your operating system and your browser (if you haven't disabled Oracle's vulnerability-prone Java Web plug-in, now would be a fine time to do so).

And if an attacker can fool you into typing your username and password into a phony site by sending you a phishing e-mail, your security-fix fastidiousness won't matter either.

You can thwart phishing attacks with the extreme measure of using a separate computer for online banking and nothing else (recommended at a panel on identity theft that I moderated earlier this month) or the lesser step of throwing a Linux LiveCD into your regular PC and booting off that for online banking sessions isolated from your usual software. But it's just a little easier to remember this basic rule: Never log into a bank account by clicking on a link sent in an e-mail.

If you're not sufficiently depressed about the state of financial security online, Target's massive credit-card breach — apparently executed by exploiting the retailer's in-store systems — offers a reminder that many account compromises happen in places we can't control.

And the best way to watch for them is to monitor your account for unusual transactions — which means you should do more online banking, not less.

Many major sites, from Facebook to Google to Microsoft to Yahoo, now allow "two-step verification" to protect users' logins from the loss of a password. That option requires users to vouch for all logins, or only those from strange computers or locations, by typing in a one-time password sent to their phone via text message or to a specialized app like Google Authenticator.

Most financial institutions, however, have yet to tune in to this trend. There's Bank of America's SafePass, CitiBank's identification codes Ally Bank's Security Code, and not much else. But if your bank offers this option — which may require looking around its site — you should enable it right away. And if it doesn't, you might want to ask why.

Twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is slipping back under Kremlin control. Ukraine’s shock decision to opt for Vladimir Putin’s Russia and pull out of EU talks on the eve of an historic deal is a dramatic upset to the European balance of power.  It is the first major defeat for the EU in its eastward march since the fall of Communism. While the region’s geo-politics remain fluid, the upset may prove as fateful as the move by the Kossack chief Bohdan Khmelnytsky to turn his back on the West and accept Tsarist suzerainty in the 1640s.  “Ukraine’s government suddenly bowed deeply to the Kremlin. The politics of brutal pressure evidently work,” said Sweden’s foreign minister Karl Bildt. Ukraine’s prime minister, Mykola Azarov, told Ukraine’s parliament that the country has been forced to cancel its trade and pre-accession deal with the EU because Russian sanctions are strangling the economy, “pushing Ukraine to the brink of a huge social crisis.”  The accord was due to be signed at the EU’s Vilnius summit next week. The volte-face stunned EU officials, torn between fury over Ukraine’s conduct and deep alarm over what has happened. Kiev said it acted in the “national security interest”. It has emerged that President Viktor Yanukovych flew secretly to Moscow two weeks ago to see Mr Putin....The pro-Kremlin outlet Russia Today said Ukraine had wisely stepped back from the EU “horror show” and accepted the real worth of Russian ties rather than hot air from Brussels. Ukraine had dodged a “death spiral” by protecting its eastern trade flows.

Mr Putin has been tightening the screws for months, blocking shipments of goods and targeting heavy industry in the eastern region that depends on the Russian market.
A freeze on imports of railway carriages has hit 80pc of Ukraine’s carriage output. Another victim is Roshen chocolate, owned by Petro Poroshenko, a champion of the EU cause in Ukraine’s parliament. Roshen sales in Russia have been banned for “toxic impurities”.
The guerrilla warfare tactics have pushed Ukraine to the brink of financial collapse. Foreign reserves have fallen by 30pc this year to $20.6bn (£12.7bn).
This is just 2.3 months of imports, far below the “safe” cover level of six months. The economy contracted 1.5pc in the third quarter, pushing bad loans in the banking system have to 30pc. Total foreign debt has reached 77pc of GDP.
The country has to roll over or repay $10.8bn in foreign debt by the end of 2014, an almost impossible task given that capital markets are effectively closed.
The government has been trying to play off Russia against the EU and International Monetary Fund, but the strategy has blown up in their faces. The IMF suspended a $15bn stand-by credit in 2011 for non-compliance, and has continued to demand radical reforms before any more money is released.
Mr Azarov said the “straw that broke the camel’s back” on the EU deal was a fresh list of harsh demands by the IMF this week, including a 40pc rise in gas bills, a salary freeze, big budget cuts, and lower energy subsidies. “All they were willing to lend us is enough to pay them back again,” he said.
An IMF spokesman said Ukraine needs “deep-reaching structural reforms” and exchange rate flexibility, IMF code for a devaluation.
Liza Ermolenko from Capital Economics said the rupture with the EU is a grave blow to Ukraine’s long-term hopes, but averts an immediate crisis. “It might have been dangerous for them to sign the deal because Russia would have retaliated. That threat has been lifted,” she said.
Ukraine’s bizarre predicament was captured by Moody’s when it cut the country’s debt rating to C grade in September because of the forthcoming EU deal. “While Moody’s views this agreement as credit positive in the medium-term, given that it will support Ukraine’s institutions, the short-term impact of a negative reaction by Russia outweighs these benefits,” it said.
Russia’s Mr Putin has offered a three-way dialogue with the EU and Ukraine, hoping to repeat the diplomatic feat he pulled of with the West over Syria’s chemical weapons. “We are ready to participate in such talks. This is the test of how serious our European partners are,” he said. Mats Persson from Open Europe said the collapse of talks is a major defeat for EU strategy. “The lesson is that EU’s soft-power diplomacy has hit its limits. Playing carrot and stick doesn’t work when you come up against a real hard power like Russia. This is a highly significant moment,” he said. The problem is intractable because Ukraine has reneged on countless promises. The EU has accused the government of “selective justice” against opposition leaders, including former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, who is still languishing in prison after a hunger strike last year.  Germany has demanded her release as condition for any EU deal, but she is still viewed as a major political threat by President Viktor Yanukovych. The EU says the door is “still open” for Ukraine but opinion is split. One official told the EU Observer that Mr Yanukovych should be left to stew in his own juice.  “We should make clear that Ukraine is not welcome. There should be no more phone calls. No more offers. Six months down the line, when left alone to deal with Russian pressure, he will come to us on his knees,” he said. Yet for all the fury with Ukraine in Brussels, there is no disguising the damage done to EU prestige and power. It is an astonishing that this pivotal nation of 46m people should be returning to Russia’s orbit 22 years after breaking free from the Kremlin.  European statesman Jacques Delors once likened the EU to a bicycle that must keep rolling forward to stay upright. It has just toppled over.

Ending the summit, Mr Putin said that world opinion was firmly against US-led intervention, and warned that Russia would take the Syrian side in the event of conflict.

“Will we help Syria? We will,” he said. “We are already helping, we send arms.”

He added: “We cooperate in the economics sphere, we hope to expand our cooperation in the humanitarian sphere, which includes sending humanitarian aid to support those people - the civilians - who have found themselves in a very dire situation in this country.”

Russia has been a long-time supplier of weapons to Syria, including a state-of-the-art air-defense system that would threaten even US warplanes attempting to attack. The Russian president said his country would stand with the Assad regime in Syria if the US launches airstrikes.

The apparent threat came as the G20 summit ended with a public split, 11 of its members issuing a statement hinting at the need for US action against the Assad regime of its alleged use of chemical weapons. Russia already supplies military aid to Syria, but the hint of more Russian backing in the event of a confrontation with the US sent jitters through financial markets worldwide.

Mr Putin also mocked Western leaders like US President Barack Obama considering intervening in Syria, suggesting that the majority of their electorates opposed any military action - including Prime Minister David Cameron for failing to persuade the Commons to back British involvement.

Mr Obama, meanwhile, compared the Syrian crisis to World War II, likening his country’s debate over intervention to the eventual American decision to support Britain against Nazi Germany.
 

Apparently, there's now an idea for the smaller countries in SE Europe to come together to confront Germany as a group?

One old family friend was taken off to Mauthausen and his widow received nothing until the early 1970s, and even then it was a pittance - a few hundred deutschmarks.

It's a scandal that because the eastern half of Europe fell under communism, this meant Germany ended up paying nothing until the détente of the 1970s, by which time many claimants were dead.

And as I said, even in the 70s, the amounts paid out were pittances.

This issue affects so many countries. If proper compensation were to be paid now, the amount would be enormous.

 

I think the Eurozone has to admit this now looks more like a fire sale rather than a rescue....Face the facts Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, Slovenia, Greece, Italy are bankrupt and in the process the Eurozone has in effect done the same to France by spreading the unfunded debt across the rest of the eurozone. To pay for this they have forced the countries into an ever increasing depression of cuts, job losses, and poverty for the citizens of these countries.  This will flow back through the rest of the Eurozone as people just stop spending and companies find they have no one to sell to. 

The Germans are in effect now confiscating or asset stripping those countries of there last assets - individuals savings, gold etc.
The disaster that predicted by many is now happening - meanwhile the eurocrats keep saying everything is okay - I think everyone needs to remind them of TITANIC - there are not enough lifeboats left!

European leaders reached an agreement with Cyprus early on Monday morning that closes down the island's second-biggest bank and inflicts huge losses on wealthy savers.

Russians would lose billions of euros under draconian terms that are aimed at preventing the Mediterranean tax haven becoming the first country forced out of the single currency. "Herman Van Rompuy has brokered an agreement between the troika and Cyprus," said an EU source, referring to the president of the European council and Cyprus's trio of creditors: the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. A meeting of eurozone finance ministers that started six hours late reached an agreement in the early hours of Monday morning to finalise the fine print of the deal. Savers with deposits of less than €100,000 (£85,000) would be spared but it was thought there would be heavy losses inflicted on the deposits of the wealthy.

Laiki, or Cyprus Popular Bank, is to be closed, with its good assets transferred to Bank of Cyprus, the country's biggest bank, where savers would suffer big losses in return for equity shares. Those with more than €100,000 in Laiki would also be hit hard.

Negotiations got under way amid a hardening of the stance by the IMF and Germany, which insisted that depositors must take the hit for bailing out the eurozone's latest crisis economy.

There were signs of panic in Cyprus as a €100 limit was imposed on ATM withdrawals, with more stringent capital controls to follow if the deal is finalised....This does not require ratification by the Cypriot parliament. So the will of the EU is imposed by force and thousands of depositors in Cypriot banks will have their money stolen all in the cause of the mighty Euro.

French authorities search Christine Lagarde's flatAway from Cyprus and indeed the UK Budget, it seems French authorities have searched the Paris flat of IMF boss Christine Lagarde.

The move is part of an investigation into her handling of a 2008 compensation payment of €285m to businessman Bernard Tapie. There are claims that Lagarde, then finance minister, acted illegally in approving the payment. She denies any wrongdoing.

 

CYPRUS GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN DENIES REPORTS OF DEAL TO SELL CYPRUS POPULAR BANK  TO RUSSIAN INVESTORS...Confusion over reported Cyprus bank sale...there are reports that Cyprus Popular Bank has been sold to Russian investors, something which has gave a lift to markets and the euro.  However, in this atmosphere of speculation and rumour, it may not be correct.

Merkel regrets Cyprus vote decision and awaits new proposals...Angela Merkel regrets the outcome of last night's vote in the Cypriot parliament, according to snaps on Reuters.

But the German chancellor accepts the decision and now awaits a proposal from the Cypriot government to the Troika. She will look at all the proposals the government makes.

Hammering home the point made by the ECB earlier, she said Cyprus does not have a sustainable banking sector.  Savers in Cyprus with more than €100,000 in the bank should be ready to contribute to any bailout (it was the plan to hit savers with more than €20,000 that scuppered the vote).

Can anyone enlighten me?????

Can anyone enlighten me as to WHY Greece thinks that by getting more time they'll sort out their mess when in the short/miedium term we have the following:
- US Debt @ 16TN and rising rapidly
- US Debt fiscal cliff in Jan 2013
- US Election
- Japan debt @>200% GDP, rising rapidly and economy plummeting
- EU zone economies falling
- Spain/Italian bonds at 'danger levels' and no sigh of relief
- China economy cooling (rapidly?) according to over 16 indicators (as you cannot trust the official figures)

So where is the economic miracle that will help Greece recover???
Anyone??..... The meeting between Hollande and Merkel appears to be mainly about greece, according to an SZ article not (yet) online. They had agreed the "let's wait for the Troika report, before deciding" line some time back. Hollande is noticeably more open towards renegotiation or extension towards Greece than Merkel is, but recognises her extremely limited room for manoevre. The FDP are pretty solidly against an extension (exceptions: Lindner in NRW and Westerwelle at the Foreign Ministry). The CSU appear to be solid against it, as much for local reasons (a burgeoning eurosceptic local rival) as for economic ones. There have been a few cautious voices in the CDU who are prepared to say that minor changes in the timescale are possible, but for the moment, the more noisy euro-sceptics get to take the stage in the party. The SPD "co-leader" Steinmeier said recently that he thinks Merkel will eventually agree to some extension for Greece, assuming the plan looks solid, but mostly the opposition are quietly letting the coalition display its disunity. If the Bundestag were asked to ratify? At the moment, I don't think they can take it to the Bundestag, without breaking their coalition. So if they were to do it, it would have to be by shuffling money around, rejigging targets and so on.

With unemployment officially nudging 790,000 – although believed to be far bigger with the closure of some 150,000 small and medium-sized businesses over the past year – there are fears that Greece, the country at the centre of Europe's worst financial debacle in decades, is slipping inexorably into political and social crisis, too. Rising racist tensions and lawlessness on the streets this week spurred the soft-spoken mayor of Athens, Giorgos Kaminis, to describe the city as "beginning to resemble Beirut".With unemployment officially nudging 790,000 – although believed to be far bigger with the closure of some 150,000 small and medium-sized businesses over the past year – there are fears that Greece, the country at the centre of Europe's worst financial debacle in decades, is slipping inexorably into political and social crisis, too. Rising racist tensions and lawlessness on the streets this week spurred the soft-spoken mayor of Athens, Giorgos Kaminis, to describe the city as "beginning to resemble Beirut".

ATHENS—Greece was paralyzed by a nationwide general strike Wednesday as hundreds of thousands of workers, shopkeepers and civil servants walked off the job in a 24-hour protest over the government's austerity program. The strike affected public services, with government ministries, local government offices, courts and schools all closed, and hospitals and many state-owned enterprises running with reduced staff. Mass transit around the capital ground to a halt as bus, trolley, tram and subway operations were suspended, and Athens's electric rail operated on a reduced schedule. More than four dozen domestic flights were canceled ahead of a four-hour walkout by air traffic controllers, and ferry operations to Greece's islands were also suspended. "The austerity measures are beginning to affect all of society even more now. The economic situation is becoming very difficult for both Greek businesses and for workers," said Anthony Livanios, an independent political economist and commentator. "Even so, the government appears determined to continue with its policies." Recent public opinion polls showed seven out of ten Greeks expect the austerity program to continue even beyond 2013 when the current bailout deal with the EU and IMF ends. The ruling Socialists have seen their popularity drop sharply in the past year, although they still retain a 3.5 percentage-point lead over the center-right opposition.

BERLIN - The succession of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will not be a topic at this week's Group of 20 meeting and will be dealt with after March, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday. "We will then see (if there will be a German candidate). The important thing is that we will have a good candidate," Schaeuble added in an interview with German radio channel Deutschlandfunk.BCE,EURO,Dollar,RON,Crisis Agerpres, Mediafax
FRANKFURT - Emergency borrowing from the European Central Bank remained exceptionally elevated for a second straight day on Friday, intensifying speculation that one or more euro zone bank might be facing new funding problems. ECB figures showed banks borrowed more than 16 billion euros in high-cost emergency overnight funding, the highest amount since June 2009 and well above the 1.2 billion euros which banks were taking before the figure first jumped on Thursday. The ECB gives no breakdown of the borrowing figures and declined to comment on Friday when asked for an explanation for the jump. Traders remained unsure whether the spike was due to a serious funding issue or whether a bank had simply made an error earlier in the week by not borrowing enough at the ECB's regular weekly funding handout. If a bank, or number of banks, did not get enough funding, and were unable to make up the difference in open markets, they would be forced to use the ECB's emergency facility until the next ECB tender came around. The next ECB offering is on Tuesday, banks get the money on Wednesday, meaning any change would evident in figures published early on Thursday. "As no bank or banking group from any euro zone country is aggressively seeking money in the interbank market at the moment, it is likely that something went wrong at the main refinancing operation," said one euro zone money market trader. "The bank or banking group needs to tap the ECB for the money whether they like it or not, or they are doing that so as not to appear active on the money market and to thereby be stigmatized," he added

European bank shares were down 1 percent by 1100 GMT while the euro fell against the dollar and other major currencies for much of the morning. Money markets showed little reaction, however. Key euro bank-to-bank lending prices remained on a downward trajectory, a direction traditionally at odds with rising tensions. The theory that the spike was due to human error appeared to be supported by data from the ECB's latest weekly funding operation. Banks borrowed the lowest amount since June at the tender, 19 billion euros less than the previous week and well below expected demand of around 160 billion euros.

However, a monetary source in Italy, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the increase in borrowing was not a technical problem and was a sign that money markets were still not functioning correctly and geographically split in the wake of the global financial crisis. The source said the Italian banking system continued to have good access to money markets, while high-level Spanish financial source said the jump was not down to Spanish banks. The borrowing jump added extra complexity to the question of whether the ECB will scale back, or extend, its money market support measures at its next meeting on March 3.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in a recent interview that the health of money markets had improved, although Belgium's Guy Quaden said this week liquidity support remained necessary. "If the increased use of the marginal borrowing facility is due to new problems in the banking system this would call for an extension of the ECB's liquidity support," said UniCredit analyst Luca Cazzulani. "The ECB knows exactly who is borrowing the money and why they are doing it. If it is due to a mistake then it should not influence their thinking at all." The extra 0.75 percent which banks have to pay for overnight funding from the ECB normally means it is used only as a last resort. The last time before this week that overnight borrowing exceeded 10 billion euros was on June 24, 2009, when it was 28.7 billion euros, the highest ever. This year, emergency overnight borrowing has been above 1 billion euros only twice. Traders said while mistyping the required amount or missing the ECB's tender altogether would be an unlikely mistake, it could happen. "It would be a huge oversight and pretty unlikely but it is possible if a lot of things conspired against you," said one London-based money market trader. "If it is a mistake then someone's boss is not going to be very happy." A number of banks, mainly from the euro zone's most debt-strained countries but also troubled banks in core countries, remain barred from open money markets and almost completely dependent on the ECB for funding.

Financial-Banking Analysis

For the new democracies and market economies of the Eastern European region, 2009 has been a rude awakening, the biggest shock since they switched from Soviet communism to western capitalism 20 years ago. "There is no doubt the region is in deep crisis," said the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week. "The worst output collapse since the great recession that followed the end of communism."

Most analysts expect the National Bank of Romania to come with a less optimistic forecast as far as this year's price increase is concerned, after last autumn it expected inflation to slow down to 3.4% in December 2011, i.e. close to the official target of 3%. According to an internal survey conducted by the Association of Financial-Banking Analysts, the average analyst forecast for the 2011 inflation is 4.3%, i.e. also above the upper inflation target limit.
The main risks now have to do with the international trend of making food and fuels more expensive, which has already been felt on the Romanian market. Last year consumer prices climbed nearly 8%, although the official inflation target was 3.5%. The shock of the VAT hike from 19% to 24% in the summer, as well as the food price increases that occurred in autumn overturned the downward trend of inflation.

The complete destabilisation of the Arab world by the imminent fall of the Mubarak regime in Egypt will reset the strategies of world leaders. We could witness policies of stockpiling and rationing fuels and basic products, believes professor Daniel Dăianu. The imminent fall of the Mubarak regime under pressure from the hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets for the sixth day in a row will change the balance of power in international politics. Economically speaking, the prices of oil and food, already under pressure, are the most affected by the Middle East instability.
The political change in Egypt, which has now reached a population of 80 million, is a "Lehman Brothers" of the Arab world, says professor Daniel Dăianu.
"This is a very difficult situation, a Lehman Brothers of the Arab world, it is a much too hot potato for everybody. It is an event with a major political impact, the most important one since the fall of the Berlin Wall, it could mark this decade," says economist Daniel Dăianu. The collapse of American bank Lehman Brothers is the biggest bankruptcy in the history of the United States and the trigger of the international economic crisis.
Daniel Dăianu believes the political unrest in Northern Africa and the Middle East comes at a time when all countries have had to make spending cuts as a result of the world economic crisis, with the very viability of the welfare state being questioned. (Z.F.)

Denmark's Vestas, the world's leader in the field of wind farm technology, with turnover worth above 6bn euros in 2009, decided to open an office in Romania this year considering the company has already sold turbines with a 450 MW capacity for investments in Dobrogea. After six years' research, Vestas now says it is time it started developing domestically.
"We have been eyeing Romania over the past five or six years, but it is now that we decided to open a local office. This is a decision that proves the domestic market has reached a certain maturity. We are in the right place at the right moment. Romania is the most promising country in Eastern Europe," says Hans Jorn Rieks, chairman for Central Europe with Vestas.
The best-known wind farms due to be equipped by Vestas are the ones being built by Energias de Portugal in two towns of Dobrogea, Pe[tera and Cernavod`.
According to Rieks, the big concern as regards the Romanian market is legislation. "The existence of clear legislation will open the market to several players as banks are always looking at something tangible and are not willing to take on risks," he says. (Z.F)

BRUSSELS, Jan. 27 - The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the rescue fund set up by Eurozone countries last May, Tuesday saw strong demand for its debut bond issued to raise cash for Ireland. Demand for the five-year bond was reportedly nearly nine times of the 5 billion euros (6.8 billion U.S. dollars) on offer, which is seen as a sign of confidence in the facility. Klaus Regling, chief executive of the EFSF, said that the strong demand "confirms confidence in the strategy adopted to restore financial stability in the euro area." The 440-billion-euro (580-billion-U.S. dollar) EFSF is not offered directly by eurozone countries, but guaranteed by them to borrow money by issuing bonds on the market for debt-laden eurozone members. According to the aid package endorsed by European Union (EU) finance ministers last November to Ireland, the EFSF, will raise 17.7 billion euros in total for Dublin.

Earlier this month, the European Commission also raised 5 billion euros for Ireland through its first bond issuance under the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism (EFSM), which is guaranteed by the EU's budget. Markets snapped up the bond within one hour.