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An honest analysis of recent Greek opinion polls suggests that the radical left wing Syriza is on course to win a clear mandate to implement anti-austerity policies that are inconsistent with continued euro membership.  Syriza support is sufficient to secure a workable majority. 36% of the final vote is the approximate threshold beyond which a strong anti-austerity government is plausible. Syriza’s performance has been consistent with this in each of the last 20 opinion polls, and over 40% of the vote on average in the last five.  The electoral system may work in Syriza’s favour. It is not just that a sixth of all seats are awarded as a bonus to the winner; but also that the votes of parties with less than 3% do not count in the final analysis.  It is not over yet. The ruling New Democracy party is entitled to portray the vote as a referendum on euro exit (around 75% of Greeks strongly wish to stay in). The experience of mid-2012 suggests voters’ sight of the exit abyss could help New Democracy close the gap slightly on Syriza.  But the binary (in or out) nature of the vote decision may also help Syriza to achieve a decisive victory by squeezing out smaller parties (eg. Independent Greeks), as voters herd to the big two.  A decisive Syriza victory in such a “referendum” would lower the probability of full capitulation to Troika program requirements. Even if Syriza were to sign off on a continuation of the programme, adequate implementation appears unlikely. It was hard enough for determined centre-right politicians, never mind Syriza.  Should Syriza fail to implement the program adequately, Greece could return to the precipice. Perhaps the government would fall at or before this point and there would be a return to an implementation-minded government; perhaps Greece would exit (this is not our baseline).  Greek assets have responded negatively; bond prices suggest default probabilities have risen sharply.