Sunday, October 9, 2011

Analysts at Credit Suisse expect Goldman to have lost $392m in the three months to the end of September, while analysts at Barclays predict losses in the region of $180m. The trading revenues at Wall Street banks have been damaged over the summer by the sharp decline in global stock markets, the volatility across many asset classes and shaken confidence among chief executives to do deals.‬ The third quarter saw the FTSE 100 drop 13.7pc, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 12.1pc and the S&P 500 sink 14.3pc. Analysts at Credit Suisse expect that to have reduced revenues at Goldman's Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities division – a key driver of profits for the bank over the last decade. Revenues are expected to drop to $1.8bn, a 37pc fall on last year. "We expect overall fixed-income sales and trading activity to be very weak during the quarter," said Howard Chen, an analyst at Credit Suisse.‬ Goldman's investment banking division, which has been hit by macro-fears about the European debt crisis and an economic slowdown in the United States, will see revenues nose-dive 29pc to $825m, compared with the same quarter last year, according to Credit Suisse. The prospect of Goldman's first loss since 2008 underlines the pressure facing what is historically one of the industry's top performers. The bank has already announced a $1.2bn cost-cutting programme to be cut from its operations by mid-2012. But the new plan will increase cuts by as much as $250m. This could equal up to 5pc of the firm's expenses based on its 2010 spending. Wall Street recruiters say that Goldman, alongside other banks, may choose to make deeper cuts to jobs to be able to pay its best staff bigger bonuses.‬ When finance ministers from the G20 major economies meet next weekend, they could be excused for having a sickening feeling of deja vu. This time it's Paris, not London, but, just as in May 2009 when Gordon Brown brought the power-brokers of the world economy together in Docklands, they are trying to prevent a financial crisis spiralling out of control and dragging the global economy into recession. This time, though, there is far less political agreement or goodwill. Instead of the US, where the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent consumers and investors into panic mode, this time the focus is firmly on the eurozone, and time is running out. Greece is on the brink of going bust if it doesn't receive a fresh injection of cash, and bond vigilantes are focusing their fire on the much bigger Italian and Spanish economies, which had their debt downgraded by Moody's on Friday. Meanwhile, many economists think the eurozone as a whole may already have sunk into recession.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The economic turmoil coursing through the world has financial markets set for a 2008-style collapse, says Robert Wiedemer, financial commentator and best-selling author of "Aftershock."

"I do think we'll have another meltdown,” he tells Yahoo. “I think the trigger will be higher inflation. The lack of printed money short-term is going to turn the stock market down within a year.”

At that point the Federal Reserve will go on another money-printing binge, Wiedemer says. “And that’s going to run out like the sugar high we had before. That’s going to kick off a downward spiral in the stock market,” he predicts.


Read more: 'Aftershock' Author Wiedemer: Fed, Inflation to Spark Market Meltdown Like 2008
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