Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Credit markets are “too pessimistic” given Europe and the U.S. aren’t likely to suffer deep recessions

Franklin Templeton Investments favors corporate bonds on prospects global growth will be driven by sustained expansion in China, and is betting yields on German bonds and U.S. Treasuries that have fallen too low. Credit markets are “too pessimistic” given Europe and the U.S. aren’t likely to suffer deep recessions, helping sustain growth in export-driven emerging economies, said David Zahn, who helps oversee $694.1 billion in assets at Franklin Templeton as a London-based portfolio manager in the fixed- income group. Debt sold by industrial companies in Europe and the U.S. is attractive, while some government bond yields have reached levels too low to be sustainable, Zahn said. “A lot of what’s been going on recently, we see more as noise, as opposed to fundamental changes,” he said. “We are positioned relatively bullishly.” China is heading for growth in excess of 8 percent next year, and along with most Asian nations has fiscal scope to cushion its economy from an escalation in Europe’s debt crisis, the World Bank said Nov. 22. The report signals that Asia, which led the world out of the 2008-2009 recession, is poised to withstand the blows from any slump in demand for its exports or pull-back in credit by European banks. U.S. gross domestic product climbed at a 2 percent annual rate from July through September, the Commerce Department said yesterday. It is expected to expand 2.2 percent next year while the euro area grows 0.5 percent, according to economist forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. “If you look at the macroeconomic fundamentals, they’re still doing what you would have expected,” Zahn said.

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Anonymous said...

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lol... said...

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Anonymous said...

Corporate Premiums - Yield premiums on global industrial debt compared to sovereign notes increased 53 basis points since June 30 to 188, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Of 463 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported quarterly net income results since Oct. 11, 311 beat analysts’ consensus forecast, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The default rate on global speculative-grade debt is set to fall to 1.4 percent by the end of the year, from 1.9 percent in October, Moody’s Investors Service said Nov. 8. “Credit is a buy,” Zahn said. “Spreads are quite attractive in both Europe and the U.S.”

doc said...

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Anonymous said...

German bonds under pressure as Merkel, Sarokzy and Monti prepare meet for debt crisis talks
Investors continued to shun German debt on Thursday following a weak 10-year bond auction as the leaders of Germany, France and Italy prepare to meet amid rising tensions in the eurozone.

The German, French and Italian leaders are meeting amid increasing signs of tension in the eurozone. By Telegraph Staff
9:08AM GMT 24 Nov 2011
Comment
The meeting will be tense as French president Nicolas Sarkozy continues to pressure German Chancellor Angela Merkel to allow the European Central Bank to become the lender of last resort to calm jittery debt markets.

Bond investors, worried about a collapse of the eurozone as leaders dither over a solution to the crisis, are forcing debt-laden eurozone governments to pay high interest rates on their bonds, while some just refuse to buy the debt.

Yesterday, Germany started to fells pressure from financial market folllowing a weak bond sale that ignited fears that the debt crisis was starting to infect the eurozone's biggest economy.

The German government was unable to sell about 35pc of the €6bn (£5bn) 10-year bonds it offered to the market, getting just €3.9bn of debt away.

On Thursday morning, German 10-year bond yields continue to widen, rising to 2.206pc, although those on Spanish, French and Italian bonds eased.