Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Germany - Europe's saviour – or biggest problem?

It could all be over by the New Year... Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says next month's EU summit will calm jittery markets and offer a rapid solution to the eurozone crisis. In particular he believes that changes to European treaties to institutionalize budgetary discipline will be forthcoming. It's going to be quicker than 12 months. I think decisions will be made on December 9. There's no alternative. We must change the structures. It's not the arrogance of the Germans, that's just the way it is. The rift between France and Germany over the issue of the ECB's role in solving the debt crisis is widening. Although Angela Merkel disagrees, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said today that it should start buying up more eurozone bonds: We still face a major difficulty, which is to convince Germany that we must give the eurozone a defense tool for our currency through a certain evolution of the central bank's role. Staying in France, the head of the agency that manages government debt, Philippe Mills, acknowledged that the country isn't in the best position compared with other eurozone countries that it shares a AAA rating with: I recognize that based on the criteria of public finances that France isn't in the best position compared to the other AAA countries in the eurozone, even if the responsiveness of the government has been welcomed by the (ratings) agencies and investors....AND... MY SUBJECTIVE OPINION ON "UBER ALLES" NOW : Post-war German politics has always been founded on consensus so hardly surprising you get successive generations of German politicians who are exceptional only in their dullness and mediocrity: Kohl, the last 'great' chancellor was as dull as ditchwater; Schröder was laughed off as a 'used car salesman'. Only Willy Brandt - a bit of a showboater - and Helmut Schmidt rose above the rest in terms of vision and intellect, but they didn't last long. Germans like their politicians dull and boring, unadventurous and unambitious. The current crop of German politicians is even more miserable: Westerwelle, Rösler, Steinmeier, Ude, who of them could do a better job than Merkel? The one guy who might have made broken the pattern - Guttenberg - has disappeared off to the US after the plagiarism scandal. For a Europe crying out for leadership Germany is indeed a problem.

5 comments:

YEIPPP said...

I think, if some of the other European countries (Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Spain, UK) had as well adjusted political, economic and social prudence as Germany, as represented by Merkel, then they wouldn't be in the situation they are in now. To now point the finger at the German Chancellor seems very hypocritical.
One finger pointing equals 4 fingers pointing back at yourself

woudrea said...

I invest in Germany on behalf of clients. In the last five years I have put in €150m.

Whilst I can see the logic of Merkel and Schauble's position for Germany as a stand alone entity, it is causing a train wreck across Europe. I am at a loss as to why they think the rest of Europe should be like the German economy when plainly it is not. You may as well ask a sheep to be a horse. It seems to be German provincialism at its worst.

They are however on a nice little earner borrowing at 1.8% and then buying Spanish bonds at 6.5% Italian at 7% etc.

Who on earth would have a currency without a properly functioning central bank. Bizarre.

cat in the window said...

I' m truly not a fan of Angela Merkel but her life at the moment must be hell. One side calls her "undecive", the other half wave Nazi posters of the new gauleiter of Europe. She - as well as Germany - just can't win, can she? She does good not being bullied into printing money and asking fellow Euro-countries to take the same tough measurements Germany had imposed to it, btw under the reign of Schröder who's government fell for it. I'm so fed up with all this Germany stuff, we're either the new 4'th reich or we are too reluctant to help.

Get a grip and sweep your own doorstep FFS.

cat in the alley said...

Kohl's "leadership" proved disastrous, expensive and mistaken. Public opinion was right. If Merkel is "constrained" by public opinion then there's another word for this: democracy.

I think you are making it too much about one person. Merkel's behaviour and policies reflect wider German policies for some time. Take the inability to lead Europe, this has been the deliberate policy of German Chancellors for some time and something most Europeans are happy with. Or the reticence to start printing money to bail out French or Greek banks, this is in large part down to the German constitution. The future of Europe involves Germany but Merkel, perhaps she is only a mere representative?

Anonymous said...

Faced with the choice of using any means necessary to save the euro or allowing Italy to default as investors demand an ever-higher risk premium for Rome's debt, Ms. Merkel may be forced to abandon her opposition to extraordinary defensive measures, economists say. Italian bond yields on Tuesday rose to 6.75%, up 0.11 percentage point. The European Union's executive arm on Wednesday is expected to present proposals that would link the issuance of euro bonds with new powers for the European Commission to intervene in the formation of national budgets—enforcing the kind of discipline Germany is calling for. The commission is expected to call for more-intrusive monitoring of countries facing severe financing problems and to outline ways the euro zone could combine its financial muscle. "It is clear that any type of euro bonds would have to go in parallel, hand in hand, with a substantially reinforced fiscal surveillance and policy coordination as an essential counterpart," Olli Rehn, the European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs, said in a speech in Berlin on Tuesday. Germany hasn't signaled it is ready to accept euro bonds in the near term in return for such budget controls. Collective borrowing would likely increase Germany's cost of servicing its public debt. Many lawmakers in Ms. Merkel's ruling center-right coalition are deeply skeptical about joint euro-zone liability for debts, which they fear would reduce pressure for southern European countries to rein in government spending. "The moment we let up the pressure, those countries that have such problems will become complacent," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said Tuesday.