Saturday, January 14, 2012

Europe has been plunged into a fresh crisis after France admitted it had been stripped of its coveted AAA rating in a mass downgrade of at least half a dozen eurozone countries by the credit ratings agency S&P. Share prices plunged, the euro dropped to a 16-month low against the dollar and the European Central Bank was forced to step in to buy Italian bonds after European sources admitted action by the credit ratings agencies was imminent. Bringing an abrupt end to the uneasy calm that has existed in the eurozone since the turn of the year, the heavily-trailed S&P move rekindled financial market anxiety about a Greek default and possible break-up of the single currency. Nicolas Sarkozy was due to go on national TV to explain the humiliating loss of France's top-rated status, leaving Germany as the only other major economy inside the eurozone with a AAA rating. French finance minister François Baroin downplayed the move, saying it was "not a catastrophe". Germany and the Netherlands were quick to make it clear they were not on the list of targeted countries circulated by S&P to European capitals ahead of an announcement that was expected to be made after the close of business on Wall Street. Investors piled into safe haven assets such as the dollar, while the UK was rewarded with even lower borrowing costs as 10-year bonds slipped below 2%. Britain is not at imminent risk of a downgrade. Mr Baroin was talking on France 2 television. More on what he said: I confirm that France has received, like most eurozone countries, a notification of a change of its rating [...] It's a downgrade, a one-notch change, it's the same agency that downgraded the United States [...] It means we must follow and amplify reforms. We must be bold. We must preserve employment. Mr Baroin says most eurozone countries have been notified of an S&P downgrade.

Any downgrades would also tarnish the credibility of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the eurozone's €440bn bail-out fund that Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy fought so hard to secure (and the one that was nearly brought down by Slovakia). If France loses its AAA rating, then Germany would be the only top-rated main backer left. The EFSF is also currently on downgrade review. In December, S&P said: Our 'AAA' long- and 'A-1+' short-term ratings on EFSF are based on (i) the unconditional, irrevocable, and timely guarantees from EFSF members (guarantor members) rated 'AAA' by Standard & Poor's that support EFSF's obligations (bonds, notes, commercial paper, debt securities, or other financing arrangements) and, (ii) the 'AAA' rated securities that constitute EFSF's liquidity reserves. Standard & Poor's has placed the 'AAA' long-term issue ratings on EFSF's guarantor members Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and The Netherlands on CreditWatch negative (see "Standard & Poor's Puts Ratings On Eurozone Sovereigns On CreditWatch With Negative Implications," published on Dec. 5, 2011), indicating our view of their increased credit risks. In other words, the EFSF is only as good as its backers.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

If I understand this correctly, the French idea of cradle to grave socialism is circling the drain along with the essentially parallel policies of Greece, Spain, and Italy. Perhaps the time has finally come when these near-idiots find out the hard way that the government can print money until hell freezes over and the money then becomes worthless. This is simple first year economics. Just what are these simple bastards thinking, assuming that they are?

The time has come for governments to finally realize that monumental sovereign debt is the road to financial perdition. The sooner this is appreciated, the sooner this financial mess/stupidity will end.

Anonymous said...

The move triggered a backlash from European politicians and led to calls for Britain to be downgraded too."

amuzamante said...

Memo from S&P to Sarko.

1. Forcing yourself onto centre stage and trying to manipulate Chancellor Merkel has not gone down too well.

2. Napoloeonic bullying has not helped.

3. A recovery plan that extends beyond the end of next week would have been a point in your favour.

4. No amount of inane grinning and exaggerated Gallic shoulder-shrugging will make any difference.

5. Your blurrff has been called.

Anonymous said...

If we adopted Chinese currency their goods would still be as relatively cheap after they inevitably revalue!

I wonder if other countries goods would be cheaper then?

It is impractical but it is food for flights of fancy,

vasy said...

Why are they attacking us ?

That's not a rhetorical question by the way.

Is anyone seriously suggesting that if Britain get's downgraded Cameron and Cleggy should start whining at Berlin or Paris ?

It's got nothing to do with us. S&P might well be wrong. But why blame Britain for this ?

It is only a rating and someone else's opinion. So it's hardly the end of the world. But the attitude of some 'European' politicians is incredible. And a clear indication why they and their cohorts, need keeping at arms length.

Anonymous said...

Stock markets and the single currency fell sharply as Standard and Poor’s cut France’s AAA rating.

Italy saw its long-term rating drop by two notches, along with Spain, Portugal and Cyprus. Austria, Malta, Slovakia, and Slovenia had their ratings lowered by one notch.

The move triggered a backlash from European politicians and led to calls for Britain to be downgraded too.

It represents a further loss of confidence in the single currency and the European Union’s ability to rescue indebted eurozone members. The Treasury believes that any collapse of the euro could seriously damage the British economy and banking system, pushing the UK back into a deep recession.

The agency’s move also threatens to torpedo the main European bail-out fund set up to support struggling countries such as Greece and Portugal.

Anonymous said...

Why should the UK be downgraded in the same way as France? We aren't in the Euro. Agreed the EUSSR are dragging us down into the shit as we have to fund them zone mi££ions each day, but then we haven't been given a referendum yet on getting out of the EUSSR. One day that hope will come.

Anonymous said...

Eurozone back on the brink"

Back? When then did it leave it?

As the tumbrel rumbles on with politicians flinging red herrings from it into the crowd, the EUR is still not a proper currency.

It has no common liability for its partners' debts, issues no EZ wide Eurobonds and has no process to continuously transfer wealth from rich states to poor ones.

It is a basket case and must either confirm to a proper currency zone, like the USD or GBP, or suffer the guillotine.

S&P have, rightly, added pressure and hopefully the politicians will get down to a bit of work and sort out their failures. Recommended by 0 person
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mari
7 minutes ago
Non hai capito l'economia - Grazie a voi siamo
nella merda siamo membri del EU ma sai solo egoista e ai messo
tutti in difficoltà sai traditori di prima classe