Wednesday, May 30, 2012

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Greece has already started printing Drachmas in secret and that Germany had been printing DMs

The Pew Global Attitudes Project polled 8,000 people in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Greece, Poland, Britain and the Czech Republic from mid-March to mid-April and identified unprecedented levels of discontent with the EU. "The European project, which began with the creation of a small common market in 1957, grew to a larger single market in 1992 and then created the single currency in 2002, is a major casualty of the sovereign debt crisis," the report concluded. "Majorities or near majorities in most nations now believe that the economic integration of Europe has actually weakened their economies." At a time when the EU is pushing closer to an economic and fiscal union for the eurozone, popular opinion is pulling the other way. That contradiction has led to electoral upsets across Europe, from Greece to the Netherlands and France in the past three months alone. Majorities in most countries now blame EU integration for damaging their economies, but the figures hit 70% in Greece, 63% in France and 61pc in Italy, all countries once regarded as staunchly pro-European. Just one third of the people – 34% – believe that economic integration, a central plank of the EU's raison d'etre, is a benefit.
De La Rue, the money printer, failed to dampen speculation that it has been secretly awarded a contract to start printing drachmas the moment Greece is forced out of the euro. The company said that its order book had increased by 14pc, to £248m, but its policy was to never reveal which specific contracts it was working on. The chief executive Tim Cobbold said: “We have people in every region in the world. We are very close to all geopolitical conditions that develop.”
He said, however, that in most circumstances it took six months between an initial order being placed by a central bank or government, and the notes being delivered. This was the time it took when South Sudan introduced the South Sudanese pound after it gained independence last year.
To print a new currency in the space of a couple of weeks “would be impossible”.
Sergey Shvestov, the vice president of Russia’s Central Bank, said that Greece already has a plan to introduce its own currency, in parallel to to the euro. He said it with high certainty.
Making contingency plans for different options is the right thing to do for anyone, but saying it about Greece and with such a degree of certainty is new.
Shvestov didn’t want to share more details, but said that leaving the euro-zone is a necessity for Greece. He said it would be a “good example” for other countries.
The Russian Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow said that a Grexit will ignite a global crisis affecting the price of oil. They see a a chance of more than 50% that Greece will leave the euro-zone and that it will cause other countries will leave as well. El Economista brings this report. Rumors about fresh polls show that anti-bailout SYRIZA is in the lead, with 30% support. The situation in Greece is so bad that the country may leave the zone even if pro-bailout parties win.
EUR/USD is struggling between 1.25 and 1.26. Is another fall coming?

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

"A national resolution authority would not have to lend to another country more than half the funds it has."

Oh, that's alright then. For one horrible minute I thought that London would have to give EVERYTHING away to mismanaged banks elsewhere in the EU. But luckily we'll be able to keep half. Thank heavens!

Don't we have enough problems with our own banks, without having to bail out those in the rest of the EU as well?

Anonymous said...

Somebody yesterday on the other article posted, that what the Spaniards are doing currently is to stall the markets untill they get access to the ESM funds in July and suck the Northern Europe dry.Anybody having more information on that?That is what I could find on the ESM stabilisatio mechanism googling it:
" The ESM has billion which will be the capital reserve. This will not be lent out and will be kept by the ESM. As the countries will own the ESM in proportion to their contributions they will continue to own their share of the paid in capital.If/when the ESM has to lend to support a country/its banks, the ESM will issue bonds and raise the funds by borrowing. The ESM currently has the capacity to raise up to €500 billion. It will be from pension funds/investment funds/banks that the ESM will get the money it lends to countries, not the countries themselves.At present, markets are charging high interest rates to many countries. The money has got to go somewhere. The ESM offers a "safe" return and is 40% backed by France and Germany."
Surely the ESM sound like a quango, and as a EU one, large expense accounts will be the norm, board of governors ( finance ministers from member states) board of directors! Managing Director, and a board of Auditors. Based in Luxemburg and offices in Brussels!So in July the first payment will be handed over, and then equal installments, it will rise more than the 80 billion that they want to raise, to borrow 500 billion, so the European countries will be borrowing the money to put in , along with all other borrowings that the government hope projected growth forecast and inflation in the coming years will be enough to pay back the interest only on these borrowings. Worst case senario is that Spain and the size of the ecomony and the property collapse will soak up this, and when Portugal calls on it , there will be little or none left for anyone else, it's then we might see the IMF inflict serious pain on everyone,as participation nations will only get the bare amount of capital.
And why Germany keeps denying that there will be Eurobonds,when in reality the roundabout illegal mechanism that is ESM is exactly that?

Anonymous said...

Wednesday's findings and decisions are to go to a summit of EU leaders at the end of next month, when the fallout from the Greek election will be clear, as well as whether France's new president, François Hollande, has been able to muster a parliamentary majority bolstering his challenge to German fiscal rigour.

Under the new rules, eurozone countries – except Greece, Ireland, and Portugal which have been bailed out by the eurozone – have to slash their budget deficits to a ceiling of 3% of GDP by next year. This is a tall order for the Netherlands, where the centre-right government recently collapsed over contested plans to meet the target, and for Spain, where last year's deficit was almost triple the 3% target.

While Greece is also pleading for a relaxation of the stringent debt reduction timetable that is part of its bargain in return for being bailed out, commission officials said there was little chance of any shift on Greece being announced on Wednesday.

If the terms of Greece's bailout are to be "adjusted", it will not happen until after elections on 17 June. Plans for dispatching a "troika" team of officials from the EC, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to check whether the Greek rescue plan is on track have been put on hold until an authoritative new Greek government is in office. The troika team was due to go to Athens next month. That may now be delayed, commission officials said.

Anonymous said...

Un caz de mita electorala a avut loc in Targu Ocna, din Bacau, potrivit lui Lucian Sova, seful de campanie electorala al PSD Bacau.

Acesta, impreuna cu vicepresedintele organizatiei judetene a partidului, Dorian Pocovnicu, au prezentat cazul candidatului PDL la functia de primar, care a oferit bani unor locuitori din cartierul Pacuri al orasul Targu Ocna.

„Este vorba de mita electorala, candidatul PDL la functia de primar al municipiului fiind surprins impartind bacnote de 50 si 100 de lei unor locuitori din cartierul Pacuri al orasul Targu Ocna”, a precizat Dorian Pocovnicu.

In sprijinul afirmatiilor facute, ei au prezentat un set din fotografii care il prezinta pe respectivul candidat, actualul primar al orasului, Floarea Ivanoff, cu mai multe bancnote in mana in timp ce discuta cu cetatenii din zona mentionata. Afirmatiile acestora au fost sstinute si de candidatul PSD la functia de primar in Targu Ocna, Stefan Silochi, care a spus ca ar avea ‘declaratii de la cei ce au primit mita’.

La randul lor, reprezentanti ai PDL Bacau, si-au exprimat indoiala cu privire la autenticitatea fotografiilor prezentate.

Anonymous said...

Issued today for only the first time since Brussels was given the power to fine spendthrift states, all eyes will be on Spain, Europe's fourth-biggest economy.


Many economists anticipate Madrid will have to ask for financial support from its 16 eurozone partners, while with foreign investors on the run moves are already afoot to create European-level banking safety nets.


How the Commission handles France - the second-largest eurozone economy - is also seen as a gauge of how serious Brussels is about flexing new-found muscles.


The power to hit governments in the pocket is arguably the key tangible to arise from the two-year debt crisis, as the European Union tries to take active control of potential problems across the single market.


An early leak to Italy's La Stampa newspaper of 29 pages of recommendations for Mario Monti's caretaker government in Rome, seen by AFP, shows that euro commissioner Olli Rehn is exercising his authority.

Anonymous said...

The Rothschild and Rockefeller dynasties have joined forces, the two families have announced this morning. They are combining their investment businesses in a deal which sees RIT Capital Partners , chaired by Lord Rothschild, take a 37pc stake in Rockefeller Financial Services.

David Rockefeller, Honorary Director and retired Chairman of Rockefeller & Co., stated: “Lord Rothschild and I have known each other for five decades. The connection between our two families remains very strong. I am delighted to welcome Jacob and RIT as shareholders and partners in the ongoing development of our investment management and wealth advisory businesses.”

Anonymous said...

The Bank of England will update us this morning with new consumer credit and mortgage lending statistics which are expected to show a slight increase in mortgage approvals for April to 50,000.

There will be continued attention on Facebook this afternoon when Wall Street opens. What's described as the worst major IPO in a decade has fallen 24pc since shares started trading on May 18. Bloomberg reports this morning that the disappointing IPO means founder Mark Zuckerberg is no longer one of the world's 40th richest people. His Facebook fortune has shrunk from $16.2bn to $14.7bn - I don't suppose he'll be searching for quarters behind the La-Z-Boy just yet.

It's the final day of campaigning in Ireland ahead of tomorrow's referendum on the EU's fiscal stability treaty. The Irish are expected to vote "yes" to the tougher rules on tax and spending, giving Angela Merkel a small boost in her battle to reform the eurozone.

Anonymous said...

The Bank of England will update us this morning with new consumer credit and mortgage lending statistics which are expected to show a slight increase in mortgage approvals for April to 50,000.

There will be continued attention on Facebook this afternoon when Wall Street opens. What's described as the worst major IPO in a decade has fallen 24pc since shares started trading on May 18. Bloomberg reports this morning that the disappointing IPO means founder Mark Zuckerberg is no longer one of the world's 40th richest people. His Facebook fortune has shrunk from $16.2bn to $14.7bn - I don't suppose he'll be searching for quarters behind the La-Z-Boy just yet.

It's the final day of campaigning in Ireland ahead of tomorrow's referendum on the EU's fiscal stability treaty. The Irish are expected to vote "yes" to the tougher rules on tax and spending, giving Angela Merkel a small boost in her battle to reform the eurozone.

Anonymous said...

A 60-year-old Greek man has hanged himself at a public park, just a couple of meters away from his home in Nikaia suburb of Athens. Police found a hand-written note in his pocket, it read:

I committed a big crime, to go self-employed at the age of 40, and be drawn by debts. Now the mal… of 61 years old must pay, I hope my grandchildren will not be born in Greece that will soon be composed of no Greeks… Unless there was a politician with b… of Thatcher type for us and the state so we would comply.