Showing posts with label prezent. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prezent. Show all posts

Thursday, July 24, 2014

KIEV, Ukraine — Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, a pro-Western technocrat who has guided the Ukrainian government through the tumultous months since the ouster of President Viktor F. Yanukovyvch, resigned abruptly on Thursday, after the governing coalition of Parliament collapsed.
“I declare my resignation in connection with the collapse of the coalition and blocking of government initiatives,” Mr. Yatsenyuk said from the rostrum of Parliament, according to Ukrainian news services.
Earlier in the day, two major parties announced they were leaving the governing coalition, a step that would allow President Petro O. Poroshenko to dissolve Parliament and call elections for next fall.
That announcement followed weeks of negotiations between the parties, but the move was apparently not supported by Mr. Yatsenyuk’s Fatherland Party, which is led by the former prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko, who had challenged Mr. Poroshenko for the presidency.
Under the Ukrainian Constitution, the Parliament chooses the prime minister, and members must vote to accept a resignation. It was not immediately clear if Mr. Yatsenyuk’s announcement meant he was leaving the government or if relinquishing the prime ministership was a symbolic step.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight, said he believed the ECB would "sit tight for now at least". The ECB last month took its deposit rate into negative territory - effectively charging lenders for parking money with the central bank - a move which may take time to take a toll on the economy.  Nonetheless he added that continued low inflation meant that "expectations will likely persist that the ECB will ultimately have to take further action".  Within the headline inflation figure, price drops in vegetables, telecommunications and fruit offset rises in the cost of tobacco, restaurants and cafes and rents. ...Consumer prices in the eurozone rose 0.5pc in the year to June, unchanged from a month earlier, according to latest official figures.   Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile elements of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, however edged up to 0.8pc in the year to June, from 0.7pc a month earlier.  The increase in core inflation is likely to ease fears that the bloc could enter a deflationary spiral and ease pressure on the European Central Bank to unleash further stimulus.  How about this! Inflation will likely dip by another 0.1% over July-August, cheaper food, less energy but come up again around September-October (first heating needed). This may well just allow the ECB, especially if there is no further deceleration in German growth and FRITSP flatten the tiniest bit, to avoid physical QE.
Germany will not support QE, other than with meaningless,metaphysical mumblings, but the slither of improvement and the national preponderance of Germany, well understood by JUncker 87, will allow Germany to accelerate 'more Europe' in terms of 3% budget (that France keeps delaying), a real banking union with realish stress tests, some form of not too debilitating FTT, common EZ business taxes etc. I think a short period of very, very slight improvement will cause a 'more Europe' drive and stop QE being an issue. The 'more Europe'will show us, notably in France, Italy and Portugal, how much political distrust, intolerance and national anger the euro has caused.
However, the EZ inflation figure of 0.5% is meaningless as the EZ is NOT one country.  What I want to see is the inflation rate for each EZ member state to see whether the 0.5% rate hides wide variations in inflation, as I suspect it does. What, for example, is the inflation rate for the EZ if you take Germany out of the equation?  If Germany, for example, has a lower rate of inflation than most other EZ countries, then we can conclude that Germany is becoming more competitive which would be bad news for the poorer member states trying to compete with Germany in the single market. But if other poorer EZ countries have a lower rate of inflation or even falling prices compared to Germany that too is very bad news for poorer EZ countries as that would mean falling tax revenues, falling wages and falling purchasing power in the economy and all that would combine to increase budget deficits and pressure on national banks.  What is needed from an economic point of view for the EZ is for Germany to have price inflation of 4% and everyone else to have price inflation of 2% for several years. That won't happen and therefore the gap between the richer member states led by the economic powerhouse of Germany over the poorer members will continue to get progressively bigger year after year. It is worth noting hat the gap between Germany and the poorer member states was closing before the advent of the Euro and that the Euro has permanently reversed this process. It is worth bearing in mind that German inflation rose from 0.6% to 1.0%. Across the majority of the euro-zone inflation actually fell even further. The euro-zone is still slipping towards the abyss even after Draghi's intervention last month. Draghi of course will use this "stable" situation as an excuse to once again do nothing.



Sunday, June 29, 2014

The US economy has shrunken at its fastest rate since the depths of the recession five years ago as it emerged that the harsh winter took a far bigger toll on activity than previously estimated.
Official data released in Washington showed that output as measured by gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of 2014. Originally, the Department of Commerce had said output rose by 0.1% at an annual rate in the quarter ending March before adjusting this to a 1% decline. The gap between the second and the third estimates was the largest on record. Wall Street was taken unawares by the size of the downward revision to growth in the world's biggest economy, with the consensus believing that growth would be down by 1.7% at an annual rate. But it expressed confidence that the US would quickly bounce back from a weather-affected start to 2014 by posting strong growth in the second quarter. Nancy Curtin, the chief investment officer of Close Brothers Asset Management said: "The US economy didn't just grind to a halt in the first quarter – it hit reverse as the polar vortex took its toll. But we can't judge current growth by looking in the rear-view mirror, and we are unlikely to see investors react strongly to what is now quite a long way behind us.
"More recent data have pointed to the economy picking up speed. Manufacturing is at a four year high, while the housing market is looking positive once more. It's clear that growth has gone up through the gears in Q2, and we'll see this reflected in the next GDP reading." Officials at the commerce department said the downward revision to growth had been the result of lower consumer spending on health care and a weaker than previously estimated contribution from exports.

Saturday, June 28, 2014

In the battle over who should become the next president of the European Commission, David Cameron is depicted as the loser - "isolated", "incompetent", a serial mis-reader of Brussels politics.
Yet David Cameron is not alone in finding himself in a corner, defending a position he cannot retreat from.
Several leaders who doubted whether Jean-Claude Juncker was the best candidate for the job are now uncomfortably lining up behind him.
But Angela Merkel's position is almost as uncomfortable as that of David Cameron. Frau Europe's authority has been damaged.
It was not just that she was forced to back down when she suggested other names apart from that of Mr Juncker should be considered for the top job.
She flinched as some outraged German columnists pointed out that during the campaign she had told voters the election would determine the next Commission president.
Although much of the German political establishment has seen a strengthening of the European Parliament as one answer to the EU's democratic deficit, Chancellor Merkel is said to be uncomfortable at a shift in power towards the European Parliament which could weaken the ability of heads of government to define the agenda.
There is already a fall-out from the battle over the Commission presidency.
The centre-left in Europe, led by Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and President Francois Hollande of France, have seized an opportunity to push their case for a change of course in Europe. Yes, they have agreed to back Mr Juncker but in exchange for a commitment to support their growth agenda.
The centre-left wants a more flexible interpretation of the EU's budget and deficit rules.

Friday, March 21, 2014

European Central Bank Executive Board member Yves Mersch has said it would be close to suicide not to agree on a mechanism to close down non-viable banks. Reuters reports: The resolution mechanism - still not finalized - is the second pillar of the banking union, which complements the unified banking supervision under the auspices of the ECB, together marking the most ambitious step towards closer European integration since the launch of the euro. Mersch said he was confident an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) could be reached, though “whether the outcome will then be satisfactory from every point of view, that’s again a new discussion”.
“I do not know of anyone who would have a plan B for a suicide. And not having an SRM would be very close to suicide,” Mersch said, when asked whether there was a plan B in case no agreement was reached before European elections in May. After two days spent trying to finalize the plan to tackle non-viable banks. European ministers said they disbanded on Tuesday with broad agreement, but officials said key questions remained open.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

"SMEs are a vital driver of growth in the UK," said Vivienne Dews, the chief executive of the OFT. "They need access to banking services and loans which meet their needs.
"Our work suggests there may be competition concerns in this sector. Further action will follow if concerns in these areas are not addressed," she added.
John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said of the watchdog's findings: "Greater competition in the business banking market is only part of the story of fixing Britain’s broken business finance system. More must be done to provide growth capital to young and fast-growing firms who are often perceived to be too high risk.
"That means broadening the role of equity and bond issues in business finance, but it also means delivering a British Business Bank that is sufficiently capitalized and has the capability to lend directly to promising high-growth businesses"
The OFT also announced that the Competition and Markets Authority will take over the study as part of a wider probe into retail banking. The Financial Conduct Authority will also contribute to the research.

Saturday, March 15, 2014

The European Parliament (EP) has adopted new rules to fight money laundering. The main purpose of the new Anti-Money Laundering Directive is to guard the stability of the financial system from money laundering and terrorist financing. It provides authorities with new tools to prevent criminals from legalising illicit proceeds. The EP has introduced several changes in the European Commission's proposal, a key change being the introduction of an EU-wide register of beneficial ownership. The register would make it possible for police and tax authorities to uncover who is actually the true beneficiary of any EU legal entity, making life much more difficult for criminals. "For years, criminals in Europe have used the anonymity of offshore companies and accounts to obscure their financial dealings. Creating an EU-wide register of beneficial ownership will help to lift the veil of secrecy of offshore accounts and greatly aid the fight against money laundering and blatant tax evasion", highlighted the European Parliament Rapporteur on this issue Krišjānis Kariņš MEP.
Illegally-laundered money accounts for as much as 5% of the world's GDP and is a challenge both for the competitiveness of the legal sector as well as for government coffers. The 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive is aimed at limiting the scope of criminal and terrorist activity in Europe. Estimates suggest that money laundering accounts for as much as 2.7% of the world’s economic activity (GDP) - or $1.6 trillion in 2009. This is a challenge for both the competitiveness of legal business, as well as for government coffers. A key change supported by the EPP Group and the other political groups is the creation of an EU-wide register of beneficial ownership which is necessary to stop criminals from hiding behind company structures and trusts. The register would make it possible for police and tax authorities to uncover who is actually the true beneficiary of any EU legal entity, making life much more difficult for criminals. Additional changes include exemptions for certain gambling services and products (e.g. state lotteries), subject to approval by the European Commission, certain exemptions for e-money products, the introduction of a 'white list' - jurisdictions with high anti-money laundering standards, the introduction of a 'politically-exposed persons' list – a list of high-ranking government officials, Members of Parliament and others in similar positions.
The EP adopted the changes to the Directive at first reading. It is awaiting the Council's position. "The EP has taken a tough stance against secrecy that aids criminals in hiding their proceeds. History repeatedly shows that criminals, corrupt politicians and dictators have legalised their illicit proceeds in the European Union. We should put an end to this. Today is a good day for law-abiding citizens, but a lousy day for criminals", concluded Krišjānis Kariņš MEP.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

When German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, a trained lawyer, announced an agreement on Wednesday night in Brussels on the long negotiated EU banking union, observers might have been left thinking that he is precisely this type of lawyer.
On paper, Schäuble and his negotiators are right about very many points. They succeeded in ensuring that in 2016, the Single Resolution Mechanism will go into effect alongside the European Union banking supervisory authority. The provision will mean that failing banks inside the euro zone can be liquidated in the future without requiring German taxpayers to cover the costs of mountains of debt built up by Italian or Spanish institutes.
They also backed the European Commission, which wanted to become the top decision-maker when it comes to liquidating banks. The Commission will now be allowed to make formal decisions, but only in close coordination with national ministers from the member states.
But it goes even farther. Negotiators from Berlin have also created an intergovernmental treaty, to be negotiated by the start of 2014, that they believe will protect Germany from any challenges at its Constitutional Court that might arise out of the banking union.
They also established a very strict "liability cascade" that will require bank shareholders, bond holders and depositors with assets of over €100,000 ($137,000) to cover the costs of a bank's liquidation before any other aid kicks in. The banks are also required to pay around €55 billion into an emergency fund over the next 10 years. Until that fund has been filled, in addition to national safeguards, the permanent euro bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, will also be available for aid. However, any funds would have to be borrowed by a national government on behalf of banks, and that country would also be liable for the loan. This provision is expected to be in place at least until 2026.
The government in Berlin put a strong emphasis on preventing the ESM, with its billions in funding, from being used to recapitalize debt-ridden European banks. Schäuble was alone with this position during negotiations, completely isolating himself from the other 16 finance ministers from euro-zone countries. Brussels insiders report that it was "extremely unusual because normally at least a few countries share Germany's position."

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Czech's want out of the European Union - the desperation vote...

An election held to resolve months of uncertainty in the Czech Republic has failed to produce a clear winner.  With all the ballots counted, the Social Democrats have the most votes - just over 20% - but they do not have enough to form a government alone.  Analysts say the result could pave the way for another unstable coalition, with the second-placed ANO party in a powerful bargaining position.  The election has come after months of political turmoil.  The centre-right government of Petr Necas was brought down by a corruption scandal in June. If ever there was a textbook Pyrrhic victory, this was it. After seven years in opposition, after seven months of vertigo-inducing opinion poll results, the Social Democrats finished on just 20.45%. No wonder the mood at Social Democrat headquarters was subdued - you'd think they'd lost these elections, not won them, and in a sense, they have. Some believe party leader Bohuslav Sobotka will resign within days.   The real victor was the Slovak-born billionaire Andrej Babis, whose centrist ANO party campaigned against corruption and for change. His second place showing is simply astonishing, and can be read as the voters' resounding verdict on the established political parties. He is being coy about a possible coalition with the Social Democrats - as kingmaker, he can dictate the terms.   So what lies ahead for this Central European nation of 10 million? Almost certainly not a minority Social Democrat government propped up by the political pariahs, the Communists. That ship has sailed. Instead weeks - maybe months - of arduous coalition talks.   The country has been without a proper administration ever since - and is currently being governed by a caretaker cabinet of technocrats.
Tough talks ahead - Correspondents say that this election is likely be followed by weeks of difficult negotiations. The BBC's Rob Cameron, in Prague, says the Social Democrats had hoped to win enough to run the country if they were supported or at least tolerated by the Communists. But even together, they do not have enough votes to form a government, he says.  That opens the way for arduous talks on forming a coalition with some of the other parties in parliament.   Social Democrat leader Bohuslav Sobotka admitted the results of the election were "not what we expected,'' but he told reporters he was ready to start negotiations with all parties.  Our correspondent says the real winner in this election is second-placed ANO, a new centrist party which campaigns against corruption and is run by a food and agriculture billionaire.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

A European Parliament report seen by SPIEGEL estimates that 3,600 international organized crime organizations operate within the EU. The damage done to European economies by organized crime totals hundreds of billions of euros according to a European Parliament special committee investigating crime, money laundering and corruption. The CRIM committee estimates that around 880,000 slave laborers live in the EU, of whom 270,000 are victims of sexual exploitation. Human trafficking alone generates profits of around €25 billion while the illegal trade in human organs and wild animals makes for a further estimated profit of between €18 and €26 billion annually. Meanwhile, cybercrime causes an estimated €290 billion of damage. The report calls rampant corruption 'a serious threat' with 20 million cases worth a total of €120 billion registered in the public sector alone. The European Commission has called for intensified cross-border cooperation between police forces and judiciaries in member states. Proposals include the elimination of tax havens and the criminalisation of vote-buying throughout the EU. The committee further advocates that individuals convicted of money laundering or corruption are excluded from involvement in government procurement for a period of five years. Whistleblowers who expose malpractice in either business or government are to be provided with Europe-wide legal protection and freedom from criminal prosecution. The European Parliament will vote on the CRIM report on October 23.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Greece may need a third aid package as soon as next year, Klaus Regling, the head of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) permanent bailout fund is quoted as saying in the Friday edition of the German business daily Handelsblatt. He also said that it was conceivable that Greece might not be in a condition to raise money by selling sovereign debt on the open market in 2014.
"Given these circumstances, Greece will probably need another aid package," Regling said, which would require the approval of the finance ministers of the 17 euro-zone countries.
Regling is not the first to publicly voice expectations that there will be a third bailout package for Greece. In August, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble expressed a similar belief although he explicitly noted that it would have to come without fresh payments from other euro-zone countries.
In the interview, Regling also criticized as "irresponsible and unfounded" the fact that "some in Northern Europe are stoking fears against the euro." The costs and risks associated with the euro bailout need to be assessed in a reasonable manner "in Germany too," he added.
So far, Greece has received two large bailouts. The first aid package included €110 billion ($150 billion) and was first agreed upon by the euro-zone member states and the IMF in 2010 (see table). Back then, the permanent euro bailout fund had not yet been established, so €80 billion of the loans provided at the time came from the individual euro-zone countries. But only €53 billion of these loans were actually paid out to Greece.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

The truth about Merkel's 4th. Reich


It's becoming clear how hard is going to be for Frau Merkel to form a new government. The SPD wants the Finance Ministry and will ballot its members on any deal. In the end, though, they're likely to reach an agreement, say media commentators.
The election may have been held eight days ago, but Germany is no closer to forming a government. It could take until December or January, the general secretary of the opposition Social Democrats (SPD), Andrea Nahles, warned on Monday. The SPD, in a canny move to drive up its price for joining a coalition and to secure grass-roots support for a deal, decided at a party conference on Friday that it will ballot its 470,000 members on any agreement. That means they can say in talks, "we can't give in on that point because our members won't back it. That's bad news for Chancellor Angela Merkel, because it will make the talks to form a so-called grand coalition of the two main parties all the more difficult. As if that weren't enough, Bavarian governor Horst Seehofer, an important conservative ally of hers, on Sunday narrowed her negotiating position with some undiplomatic rhetoric before preliminary talks had even begun.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

In the last five years, there have in fact been a significant number of new guidelines, laws, drafts and recommendations. The banks were forced to increase the size of their financial cushions, for example, but they still aren't large enough. Regulators devised split banking systems designed to shield customer deposits from risky trading activities, but the concepts are half-baked and have yet to be fully implemented.
The leading industrialized nations agree that banks should be liquidated in accordance with clear rules -- and without adversely affecting taxpayers, if at all possible. Nevertheless, there are still no uniform international principles to achieve this goal. Most countries don't even have an insolvency statute for the industry.
Bankers' bonuses were capped, but then their fixed salaries were increased dramatically. Regulators had vowed to rein in the rampant trade in derivatives among banks by requiring it to be conducted on supervised exchanges. Instead, the over-the-counter derivatives market has grown by 20 percent since 2009.
Over the years, lawmakers have lost sight of the most important objectives of regulation. Secure savings deposits, a continuous supply of credit and a functioning payment transaction system are as important to an economy as intact water pipes or power grids. The point is to ensure that this supply functions properly. At the same time, governments and taxpayers cannot allow themselves to be held hostage by the banks, merely because they can guarantee a basic supply of capital.
"What is needed is fundamental structural change, which, as in other industries, costs money. Lawmakers shy away from that," says Clemens Fuest, President of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW).
Financial industry executives take every opportunity to warn that if regulators take aim at financial groups, then businesses, savers and investors will ultimately suffer.

Friday, August 23, 2013

Ever since Fukushima, the supporters of nuclear have been at pains to insist that the disaster had been contained, without any evidence, just accepting the government statements. Pro-nuclear environmentalists were insistent that there was nothing to worry about. What will they say now?
What is "highly toxic water". When I read this at least a week ago, it was radioactive waste. Just where are we supposed to get some accurate information about this? This should be front page news, as it will affect us all. Unfortunately, the west coast of the US and the north coast of Australia will get the effects well before we do. But there's no escaping the effects. What a tragedy. Is this an acceptable result of nuclear energy for those who support it?...This just goes to show that even a highly-industrialized country like Japan cannot handle the aftermath of a nuclear meltdown. When will people realize that nuclear is not the future but the death of this planet.  There are a number of solutions out there that need to be combined to give us the electricity we need but big industry and short-memory  politicians make sure that we keep on consuming and consuming. The first step is to make the price of electricity reflect the real cost of maintenance and decommissioning of the power stations. The people will realize just how much they can reduce their energy consumption (like insulating houses)....
Yes, the switch from intensely radioactive to "toxic" is clearly an attempt on someone's part, probably an industry PR man, to make it sound like a more manageable chemical hazard, conveniently overlooking those tedious details like radioactive half-life, and the increasing difficulty of getting men and even machinery into close enough proximity to effect repairs.
As for those defenders of nuclear energy who pop up on web forums, one in particular was almost certainly a top man in the UK nuclear industry, perhaps recently retired and kept busy. Back in March 2011 we had such a person on a different MSM site, not dissimilar to this one, telling us hourly that TEPCO had the technology to deal with what was an entirely manageable and containable spill, that normal background radiation was routinely blasting our DNA every minute of the day so what were we worried about, that suggesting parents try getting hold of some iodine pills to protect their children's thyroid glands was the height of criminal irresponsibility bla bla. I'm half expecting him to turn up here shortly. Let's hope the Report button works better here than it did there, back in March 2011.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Best wishes to the Greek people. Considering that I am a right of centre poster I'm not always that impressed by some strikes. Much of that comes from the British memory of the 1970s 'I'm alright Jack' (Peter Sellers film) type of Union action which was unhelpful to the British economy.
 Greece is an entirely different case, and more or less the only avenue that your average Greek citizen has left to register their protest at the troika and corrupt Greek political class. Though one day mass walkouts can only go so far, and have to wonder if more sustained action will eventually be needed to bring down the government.
Eurozone industrial output slips in May - Industrial output in the eurozone has come in largely as expected, slipping 0.3% in May from April.
In annual terms, output fell 1.3%, according to data from Eurostat.
There was some mildly positive news in revisions to previous data, with output now believed to have expanded 0.5% on the month in April, compared with a previous reading of 0.4%.
Further details from Eurostat also bring some welcome cheer for Portugal, which tops the industrial growth league in May. Eurostat reports:  Among the European Union member states for which data are available, industrial production fell in thirteen, rose in nine and remained stable in the UK. The largest decreases were registered in Romania (-10.7%), Lithuania
(-6.3%) and Sweden (-3.8%), and the highest increases in Portugal (+6.1%), Latvia (+2.2%) and Estonia (+2.0%).
Looking at the drivers of production throughout the eurozone, Eurostat says:  In May 2013 compared with April 2013, production of durable consumer goods dropped by 2.3% in the euro area. Capital goods decreased by 1.5%. Energy rose by 0.1%. Intermediate goods grew by 0.4%. Non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.6%.

Friday, June 28, 2013

The German government has expressed the growing public anger of its citizens over Britain's mass programme of monitoring global phone and internet traffic and directly challenged UK ministers over the whole basis of GCHQ's Project Tempora surveillance operation. The German justice minister, who has described the secret operation by Britain's eavesdropping agency as a catastrophe that sounded "like a Hollywood nightmare", warned UK ministers that free and democratic societies could not flourish when states shielded their actions in "a veil of secrecy".
Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger sent two letters on Tuesday to the British justice secretary, Chris Grayling, and the home secretary, Theresa May, stressing the widespread concern the disclosures have triggered in Germany and demanding to know the extent to which German citizens have been targeted.
It is the first major challenge to David Cameron's government to publicly justify its mass data-trawling operation, which was revealed in documents leaked by the former US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden.
Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, has made clear her frustration that many of the questions raised by the disclosures made by the whistleblower have gone unanswered by the Obama administration.
William Hague, the British foreign secretary, again dismissed concerns on Tuesday in a speech at the Ronald Reagan Library in California, saying Britain should have nothing but pride in its "indispensable" intelligence-sharing relationship with the US.
"Let us be clear about it: in both our countries intelligence work takes place within a strong legal framework. We operate under the rule of law and are accountable for it. In some countries secret intelligence work is used to control their people – in ours it only exists to protect their freedoms."
But writing in the Guardian, the former Conservative leadership contender David Davis disputes that view, saying Britain's intelligence agencies are only subject to law in theory. He accuses GCHQ of circumventing "inconvenient laws" by handing over personal data to the US and raises the prospect of "extremely serious violation" of the rights of British citizens over the use of their personal data.

Monday, April 22, 2013

I quoted  Spiegel and refer to the ECB study claiming that the average Germans pay for the rich Greeks in this crisis, but to me this is all coordinated pro-Troika propaganda aimed at perpetuating the current status quo in Europe.
a) The Spiegel speaks about the euro-bailouts as if they were gifts - i.e. free transfers - while in fact they are loans
b) The research which supposedly shows that Southern Europeans are wealthier than Germans is dubious to say the least.
- It counts houses and property, i.e. assets the value of which was hugely inflated at the time of research (for Spain data is from 2008 and for most other countries 2010). These values have since collapsed and can go further down since the research has been done. Since 2008 house prices in Spain decreased by 50% . 2010 was the year that the Eurocrisis has started, Since then the GDP of Greece has dropped by 20%+, labor cost in Greece has dropped by 40% and houses have lost substantial value. Do you believe that the average Greek is as wealthy as in 2010?  Even if we assume that the methodology of the research was correct (it is certain not), are the findings of this research still valid? Obviously not.
- The ECB does not count transfers by the state, i.e. provision of good education, health, help with childcare, tax credits, housing and other benefits. These add to an individual's wealth and are much higher in Germany than Greece for example. The research should have measured the average income in each country. State transfers boost low incomes and contribute to raising the average. So the results hide some of the average German wealth.
- To my understanding, this research measures the wealth of households - not individual wealth, and the research admits that in Germany households are smaller than in Southern Europe on average. If you have more people in the household, the wealth is less per individual. But the emphasis was deliberately placed on household income because this makes Southern Europe look richer. Importantly, there is a fundamental question here: how countries like Spain and Greece with consistently lower GDP per capita since time immemorial people can be richer than Germany on average?. Shall I suggest that Germans, instead of saving to buy a house, they squander their money sailing on the frozen lakes of Finland or doing archaeology in Mongolia? Talking about GDPs, the per capita GDP of Greece (PPP - what one can buy) in 2011 was lower than that of the Czech republic's and Slovenia's. Now, thanks to all the beneficial effect of austerity it might approaching that of Zimbabwe.
To me, this research and article seem a very convenient way of telling Southern Europeans at the right time: don't complain to the Troika about the destruction of your economies and societies with these anti-economic austerity policies, don't complain about the medieval labor laws imposed on you, the halving of your wages and the asset stripping.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Romania has dropped setting a target date for adopting the euro, although officials insisted that joining the single currency remains a fundamental objective for the country, according to reports.
The Romanian news agency Mediafax said the Romanian government would submit to the European Commission for the first time a programme on progress towards adoption of the euro without a target date.

Going to Germany, the country's leading economic think tanks have trimmed their growth forecast for Europe's biggest economy this year.
The four institutes- Ifo in Munich, IfW in Kiel, IW in Halle and RWI in Essen, predicted that the German economy would expand by 0.8pc in 2013, a downward revision from 1pc growth, then grow by 1.9pc in 2014. They said the cut to projected 2013 growth was due to the fact that the economy had to catch up this year after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2012.   I look at this the other way....let the sinking German economy pay in full for the Cypriotic mess....the only awkward caveat being they have the influence to hoodwink the Troica to raid depositors accounts.
So other countries have no say; they can simply block any contributions to IMF fund and direct sequestration attempts.
In essence; the man in the wheelchair has just confirmed that Germany will dictate how the EU economy is run. This is a big mistake....The Cypriot bail-out may now hinge on the Mediterranean island's own parliament, which is sorely divided over the rescue.
Early signs are that nearly half the members of the 56-seat Cypriot parliament may oppose it, a step that could plunge the island into fresh crisis, possible bankruptcy and all but spell a eurozone exit.
How Cameron is going to attempt EU top-end reforms has been made near impossible.
Aah Herr Schaeuble, you resort to the politician's time-honoured ploy: When you have lost the rational argument, use fear.
One day soon, you and all the others trapped in the dysfunctional Eurozone will find out that nothing happens when a country leaves. Nothing for the departing country except a short, sharp shock followed by equally quick recovery - you know, like Iceland.....
Of course the great fear that dare not speak its name is that once one country leaves the Eurozone, others will stampede for the exits. And once they leave the Eurozone and prosper, serious doubt will arise over the need for ever-closer political union within the EU.
That will cause a flutter in the Brussels dovecote won't it?

Christine Lagarde, chief of the International Monetary Fund, has been summoned to a French court to testify in the probe into a high-profile scandal that occurred when she was a government minister.
According to news website Mediapart, Ms Lagarde could be placed under formal investigation for a decision she made while finance minister to go ahead with an arbitration to settle a dispute between the state and billionaire businessman Bernard Tapie, in defiance of objections from her advisers.
Magistrates from a special court that handles alleged abuses by government ministers suspect Ms Lagarde of complicity in misusing public funds as finance minister when she decided to go ahead with the arbitration.
Ms Lagarde denies any wrongdoing.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Apparently, there's now an idea for the smaller countries in SE Europe to come together to confront Germany as a group?
One old family friend was taken off to Mauthausen and his widow received nothing until the early 1970s, and even then it was a pittance - a few hundred deutschmarks.
It's a scandal that because the eastern half of Europe fell under communism, this meant Germany ended up paying nothing until the détente of the 1970s, by which time many claimants were dead.
And as I said, even in the 70s, the amounts paid out were pittances.
This issue affects so many countries. If proper compensation were to be paid now, the amount would be enormous.
 
I think the Eurozone has to admit this now looks more like a fire sale rather than a rescue....Face the facts Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, Slovenia, Greece, Italy are bankrupt and in the process the Eurozone has in effect done the same to France by spreading the unfunded debt across the rest of the eurozone. To pay for this they have forced the countries into an ever increasing depression of cuts, job losses, and poverty for the citizens of these countries.  This will flow back through the rest of the Eurozone as people just stop spending and companies find they have no one to sell to. 
The Germans are in effect now confiscating or asset stripping those countries of there last assets - individuals savings, gold etc.
The disaster that predicted by many is now happening - meanwhile the eurocrats keep saying everything is okay - I think everyone needs to remind them of TITANIC - there are not enough lifeboats left!

Friday, December 21, 2012

The police are becoming frequent guests at Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt. For the second time in a week, authorities raided the bank in connection with an ongoing investigation, this time looking for evidence of witness collusion relating to court testimony in a high-profile case pitting Deutsche Bank against the family of the deceased German media magnate Leo Kirch.
The raid took place on Wednesday, but only became public early on Thursday afternoon, partially because it was not nearly as disruptive as a raid conducted a week ago Wednesday, when authorities showed up with 500 armed police and secured the bank's lobby. Nevertheless, the new search and seizure operation underlines yet again the dark cloud of suspicion that hangs over Deutsche Bank despite its stated desire to turn over a new leaf.
Police confiscated documentation and data on Wednesday, but did not make any arrests, according to a spokesperson for the public prosecutor's office in Frankfurt. The visit marks the second such raid in connection to the Kirch proceedings, the first having taken place in November of 2011.
At its heart, the Kirch case is a civil suit. The family accuses former Deutsche Bank supervisory board head Rolf Breuer of hastening the demise of Leo Kirch's media conglomerate by voicing doubts in an interview about the company's creditworthiness. Last Friday, a court in Munich decided in favor of the Kirch family and indicated damages Deutsche Bank would be forced to pay would be somewhere between €120 million and €1.5 billion.
Latest Low Point
But prosecutors also believe that several senior bank executives and board members, including Breuer, former CEO Josef Ackermann and two others, may have illegally coordinated their testimony prior to initial hearings in that case. They deny the charge. Officials on Wednesday were looking for information that could provide clues as to whether the quartet had indeed acted illegally.
Wednesday's raid marks just the latest low point in a 2012 full of them. The investigation relating to the emissions certificates directly implicates current co-CEO Jürgen Fitschens and it led to five arrests last week, though all suspects have since been released from pre-trial detention. Still, it could prove a difficult corner for the bank to wriggle out of. Fitschens is said to have signed a questionable tax declaration for the year 2009 which included refund claims on fraudulently traded emissions certificates. The investigation has been ongoing since 2010, but authorities seem to believe that Deutsche Bank's criminal intent was greater than the financial institution is willing to admit.

The bank, Germany's largest, also stands accused of having played a role in the LIBOR scandal, which saw prominent international banks collude to manipulate the key international lending rate. On Wednesday, the Swiss bank UBS was fined $1.5 billion for its role in the ploy by US, British and Swiss regulators. Furthermore, a former bank employee has also accused Deutsche Bank of having cooked its books during the peak of the financial crisis in order to avoid being forced to accept a government bailout. There are several additional legal proceedings pending as well.
According to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, in a story which will appear in the paper's Friday edition, this week's raid is linked to last week's. In a pre-publication press release, the Munich daily reported that investigators confiscated information last week that was also linked to the Kirch case and decided to come back for more. It is unclear for how long the investigation will last.(source...der spiegel)