Showing posts with label stupid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stupid. Show all posts

Saturday, April 11, 2015


Back in June 2013 on a state visit to Japan, French President Francous Hollande declared the Eurozone crisis was "over".  How could the ECB claim that recovery has not been achieved, when according to Hollande, the Eurozone has been out of recession for nearly two years?  The central bank’s estimates have been considered optimistic by external observers, as private forecasters remain more sanguine about the euro area’s prospects. Members of the ECB Board  warned that growth projections for 2017 relied on several elements which might turn out to be less supportive than the forecasts assumed.   Peter Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, said that the governing council had to remain cautious “given the very early stages of the economic recovery and the high degree of uncertainty,” particular when dealing with forecasts running up to 2017.
Members of the council “generally shared” the view that the forecasts represented an accurate assessment of the situation. The central bank has pencilled in growth of 1.5pc for this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the consensus. It expects growth of 1.9pc and 2.1pc in the following two years.   Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg, said that “there are plenty of the risks” that both growth and inflation might be lower than projected. “The word risk appears 16 times in the minutes,” he said.   The minutes stated that the upward revisions to growth should not be taken to mean that the €1.1 trillion (£810bn) package of asset purchases “was less necessary”. The QE scheme has already been effective in reducing borrowing costs and weakening the euro. ECB purchases began last month, as the euro area entered a fourth straight month in deflationary territory.   The higher growth and inflation forecasts “confirmed that full implementation of these measures was required to deliver on the governing council’s mandate”, the minutes said. Members believed that this provided grounds for “prudent optimism” regarding a gradual recovery and returning inflation to its close to 2pc target. The minutes showed that the committee intended to continue the purchases “without hesitation” until its objectives are met. Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said: “

Thursday, March 26, 2015

With another 350 million euros leaving Greece on Friday for a payment due to the International Monetary Fund, the state coffer looks frighteningly empty. At the same time, state revenues have dropped significantly.  Greek banks face a serious liquidity problem as on Wednesday alone depositors withdrew a total 300 million euros. At the same time, they only received 400 million euros under the Emergency Liquidity Assistance scheme. The ELA limit is 69.6 billion euros.
At the same time, the Greek state withdraws available funds from security funds in order to cover financing needs.  A Greek official said in Brussels that Athens has no problem paying the 350-million-euro installment to the IMF.  However, by the end of April Athens will need 4.3 billion euros for public employees’ salaries, pensions and other obligations. At the same time banks should renew state bonds worth 2.4 billion euros.  Another major problem for the Greek economy is non performing loans.Loan payments have been extremely low since the beginning of the year when Greece was gearing up for snap elections. Debts to the state also increased as taxpayers are uncertain over new tax laws.  In the first two months in 2015, there were 57 million euros in bad checks and unpaid bills of exchange. Loan payments dropped by 1.5 billion euros while payments for debts to the state dropped by 1.7 billion euros. - "Can we all spend lots of time & loads of money at meetings into the small hours, where we can all pretend that Greece is going to compute how it is going to increase its revenues and pretend also that Greece will be able to repay its debts, and pretend at the same time that we will NOT bail Greece out but then offer some small assistance so we can get our Banks off the hook, and then pretend that Greece is suited to the Eurozone and pretend to be tough so our electors think we know how to manage, and then pretend to be tough but give yet more money to Greece, and pretend further, that Greece will remain in the Eurozone forever..................... and that the Euro concept is truly wonderful and good for all nations and ................Yours truly and lovingly, Aunty Merkel....... ad infinitum, etc. etc, Blah, bulls--t. waffle, drinks all round etc.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

The termite-eaten timbers under the rotten edifice of the EU are crumbling.

The Alpine region of Carinthia faces probable bankruptcy after Austria’s central government refused to vouch for debts left by a disastrous banking expansion in eastern Europe and the Balkans.
It would be the first sub-sovereign default in Europe since the Lehman Brothers crisis, comparable in some respects to the bankruptcy of California's Orange County in 1994 or the city of Detroit in 2013. Austria’s finance minister, Jörg Schelling, said Vienna would not cover €10.2bn (£7.4bn) in bond guarantees issued by the Carinthian authorities for the failed lender Hypo Alpe Adria, or for the "Heta" resolution fund that succeeded it. This leaves the 550,000-strong province on the Slovene border to fend for itself as losses spin out of control.  “The government won’t waste another euro of taxpayer money on Heta,” he said, insisting that there must be an end to moral hazard. The Hypo affair has alredy cost taxpayers €5.5bn. The Austrian state has said it will cover €1bn of its own guarantees “on the nail” but nothing more. 
Sources in Vienna suggested that even senior bondholders are likely to face a 50pc writedown, becoming the first victims of the eurozone’s tough new “bail-in” rules for creditors. These rules are already in force in Germany and Austria, and will be mandatory everywhere next year.
The cracks are widening - and just a few days ago we heard Austria telling us to treat Greece like lepers.  The euro falls like a brick - with a lot further to go.  It will be interesting to see who dumps this toxic currency first....Germany? France or Italy - a race to the bottom.

 

Monday, March 2, 2015

The motor for economic growth is the spending power of the lower and middle income groups. 20% of the pensioners money flows back into the government coffer with VAT.
Those selling must pay taxes, also the manufacturer and farmers that make the products. Selling, buying creates demand that in turn creates jobs.  The UK used quantitative easing, (printing money-leaving the incurred debt to be paid for by later generations) to increase the availability of cash .  Manufacturing is not the economic motor of the UK, the banks that have moved on from lending to businesses now make their money from speculation in 'money products' leaving manufactures without loans and cash strapped like never before.  Without is social safety network and pensions the UK would see consumer power decimated, its the poor that actually keep the UK ponzi scheme afloat.  The new Greek government has pledged to repay in full  obligations to the International Monetary Fund and the European  Central Bank. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis outlined plans  to swap some debt into new securities and link repayment with  economic growth.   Until now Greece has been paying its debts with a credit card making the debt larger and unsustainable.  The Greeks must return to growth, for the first time since the 2e world war it has a government that could deliver....As the EU's favourite soap - Greekenders - was entering its fifth  season, we wondered if the writers had run out of ideas.  Of course, we still had all our favourite characters - tough, tight-fisted housewife Mrs Merkel, miserable old sod Mr Schäuble, suntanned (crocodile-skinned?) fashionista Ms Lagarde and stylish, suave Italian lothario Mario Draghi.  But with the endless austerity and falling viewing figures, we wondered whether Greekenders was on the way out as Europe's favourite evening entertainment, whether we were heading for what we in the TV business call a "Grexit".  Thankfully the Greekenders writers have responded to public concern about a boring plot with the introduction of two exciting new characters.  There's the flamboyant young second-hand car dealer Alexis Tsipras with his flashing smile, filmstar looks and smooth sales patter.  And there's the new accountant - Yanis Varoufakis. But the new Greekenders accountant is not some boring, besuited nobody. He's a young, shaven-headed,  motorbike-riding smoothie with a Mediterranean charm and a way with the numbers that might even put a bit of fire into the cold, stone-like hearts of grim misery-guts Merkel and crocodile-skinned Ms Lagarde.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Gold Rush ??? -A few years ago annual production was 13,000,0000 ozs,it is now 10,000,000 ozs worldwide,although figures for Russia and China are vague and possibly unreliable.We do know,however,that they do not export in any volume that which they do mine.  I have a friend ,a board member ,of a company ,that produces 1,000,000 ozs per annum.it s no secret that they have enough ore above ground for about two years production,they are ,at the moment,not mining.  Now,onto consumption,prefaced by the admission that I reside in Thailand,and I am speaking as I see the situation here and indeed the surrounding countries of S.E.Asia.  The general population buy gold to keep for weddings and the rainy day syndrome.They do not buy as an investment or for trading,the spread is too great.  The Chinese will,if the coming year is thought to be unfavourable.  India,the largest consumer, placed tax on imports a couple of years ago of  (I believe) 5%.  My question to my self at the time was answered by an Indian who was trying to come to an agreement with the company mentioned above,to no avail of course,when he reminded me of our conversation of sometime before,years in fact,when he predicted that middle class Hindu brides,say five or ten million every year,would swallow world production.  The presumption I now have confirmed to myself is that most markets are manipulated,you and I will be allowed to gamble in shares bonds and propery,because they are our decisions and will be our fault.The underpinning we used to enjoy fifteen years ago ,is no more.Good luck and God bless you all ... $1000 dollars of gold stuffed under the mattress a hundred years ago would be more valuable today than $1000 in cash stuffed under the same mattress, so people saying pieces of paper issued by a central bank are a better bet than gold are clearly talking nonsense, how are those Hapsburg thalers, Reich marks or Czarist rubles doing these days?  But, and it is a huge but, gold only retains its value in a civilized society, it is spectacularly useless when society breaks down a fact about which many gold buyers seem to be completely unaware. How the heck do you think gold coins will save your neck when the Morlocks are coming over the garden fence?  The mere fact of owning gold will mark you out for immediate attack. The first time you go to the market to buy your bag of rice with a gold sovereign is the moment your fate is sealed.  Historically Jews and other persecuted groups kept their wealth in gold as they figured it was their passport when the crisis came, all it meant was that the bad guys knew to strip them naked and steal their clothes and luggage after chasing them out while the peasants ransacked their homes looking for the secret stash.  Think of those caches of gold dug up by archeologists, which we are told were hidden to keep it safe from the Vikings and ask yourself how much use all that gold was to its original owner. 

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

In a letter to Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the eurozone finance ministers’ group, obtained by Reuters, Greece’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, conceded that the Greek authorities would “refrain from unilateral action that would undermine the fiscal targets, economic recovery and financial stability”.  Crucially, he said Greece would remain under the supervision of the European commission, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund – the unpopular troika that the Syriza-led government had insisted it would throw off.  Germany says Greek proposals for a six-month extension to its bailout programme do not go far enough .   Eurozone officials are meeting in Brussels on Thursday to assess the latest Greek proposal. Raoul Ruparel, the head of economic research at Open Europe, thinks the Greek government has little chance of getting the rest of the eurozone to back its plans on labour market reforms, pensions or privatisation.   However, in a briefing paper, he wrotethat the eurozone could give way on another one of Greece’s key demands, to allow the government to run a smaller budget surplus, so freeing up money for social spending. “The Greek election represented a tipping point, meaning that the rest of the eurozone will have to consider some tradeoffs,” he wrote.  A spokesperson for the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said the letter was a positive sign that could pave the way for a reasonable compromise....

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

The Greeks were screwed to save the banks, now the banks are free, they are being screwed to save EU taxpayers and the debt just keeps on growing, how anyone thinks this makes sense I do not know....Grexit is inevitable. The only question is when, and how?  Many imagine Grexit will mean be a return to the Drachma and cheap holidays in Greece and maybe even cheap property to buy in Greece.  The reality will be very different.  You cant wind the clock back to the nineties (some DT journalists think you can!).  Most likely scenario is a semi-orderly/disorderly retreat from the Euro.  Starting this weekend with drastic capital controls to prevent a run on Greek banks next week , in the run up to the 28 Feb deadline.  Followed by either a cut in Govt spending (unlikely) or IOU’s and delayed payments for /salaries /pensions/ contracts from the Greek govt.(more likely)
Reason being the Greek Govt budget is already at -12% at end of last year - they are bankrupt  and this is set to go higher - Greek taxpayers aren’t paying their taxes …they are stuffing their spare Euros in offshore accounts or under the mattress, plus the social spending promised by Syriza– rehiring public employees, pensions at 50, free energy for some (the ones who voted for them).   The introduction of capital transfer controls and IOU’s by Greek Govt will be de facto exit from Euro , although officially Greece wont leave the Euro and cant be kicked out… instead a dual currency economy will exist.   You will still pay for your holiday in Greece this year in Euros… nothing will change for those parts of the Greek economy which are productive and competitive. Likewise real assets like property will keep their Euro value.   A situation much like Cambodia for example – a third world country but with a competitive tourist industry. Tourists pay in Dollars and get dollars from ATM’s , but every time they pay with foreign currency they get their small change in local currency …ending up with a pile of useless local currency at the end of the holiday.
Unproductive parts of the Greek economy – public employees, pensioners, unemployed and the poor will have to use local, depreciating currency on a hand to mouth basis, like all banana republic currencies.  But if you are a Brit- look on the bright side - the depreciation in the Euro , primarily due  to this Greek fiasco, will result in holidays being 10-15% cheaper in2015 , as compared to 2014….

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Greece and its European creditors reached Friday a deal over the country's request to extend its bailout that would keep the country from falling out of the euro bloc.  An official close to discussions, who spoke only on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to comment publicly, says a deal was reached between the two sides at a meeting of finance ministers in Brussels.  The official said that, as part of the agreement, Greece could "present a first list of reform measures by Monday" for the country's debt inspectors to assess. 
European creditors have insisted that any extension to loans should be accompanied by a commitment to some budget measures and reforms.  If the officials from the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Commission, say the list of measures presented Monday by Greece is acceptable, then eurozone finance meeting could discuss the issue by conference call on Tuesday.  The breakthrough in the standoff between Greece and its creditors helped global markets, with the euro and stock markets in the U.S. rising.  Friday's meeting was delayed by 4 hours as the finance ministers worked in clusters, where details of the statement were discussed.  The developments come a day after Athens requested a six-month loan extension, which would allow Greece to pay its bills and avoid an eventual bankruptcy...
A bad day for Greece from the looks of it, another 4 months of pain in a fiscal straightjacket that they have no hope of ever escaping from.  They are a long way off the levels of competitiveness required to stay in the EU and they are also now saddled with huge debt.  Logic says exit but logic doesn't include the stubborn heads of the politicians.  An exit is coming, it's just a case of when.

A total defeat for Greece actually:
1) The accord requires Greece to submit by Monday a letter to the Eurogroup listing all the policy measures it plans to take during the remainder of the bailout period, to ensure they comply with the conditions.
2) That drove ministers to make Greece hand over custody of nearly 11 billion euros in aid earmarked for stabilising its banks to the euro zone's rescue fund. "We wanted to make sure that the money for Greek bank recapitalisation is for that purpose, not for recapitalisation of the government," Dijsselbloem said.
3) "The Greeks certainly will have a difficult time to explain the deal to their voters," Schauble said.
But I cannot think why Germany has bothered. No way Greece can deliver any primary surplus, so all the next four months will do is prove that.

 
The European Central Bank has thrown Greece a lifeline to prevent Athens running out of money before crunch talks with European leaders.  The extension of emergency funding to the Greek finance sector by the eurozone’s central bankers lifted the euro and gave Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, a stronger hand before meetings with senior officials at the leaders summit in Brussels.
Tsipras was scheduled to meet the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in an attempt to hammer out a deal after he told her, following his election a little more than a fortnight ago, that he will lift draconian austerity measures, contravening the terms of the Greek bailout programme.  Greece has failed so far to persuade European leaders that it needs more generous loan financing to alleviate poverty and to promote growth. Talks earlier his week between eurozone finance ministers reached a deadlock after plans put forward by Athens for cheaper long-term loans were rejected...The ECB has come under pressure to allow Greece to access short-term lending facilities after it said the crisis-hit country no longer qualified for drawing on standard borrowing terms. ECB officials declined to comment, but two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) by the Greek central bank would be authorized by the ECB as a temporary expedient...  Merkel was scheduled to meet Tsipras privately on the sidelines of the one-day informal EU summit, which was meant to focus mainly on the Ukraine crisis and report back on negotiations in Minsk with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.   Tsipras’s position appeared to weaken before the summit after figures showed a shortfall in Greek tax receipts and a steady flight of savings from the country’s largest commercial banks. Finance ministry data showed tax revenues were €3.49bn (£2.58bn) in January, well below the €4.54bn target set under Greece’s latest budget.  The grim data adds to concerns that Greece will run out of time and money before settling differences with European partners, who want Athens to stick with a debt plan that expires at the end of this month.  Greek households withheld tax payments desperately needed by the new Athens government after it rejected the last payment worth €7.2bn under the existing bailout scheme.   Greek banks have also been hit by a flight of capital to foreign-owned rivals in the runup to snap elections, which propelled Tsipras’s radical left party Syriza to the head of a coalition.

Monday, February 2, 2015

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi unveiled bigger-than-expected quantitative easing measures on Thursday but still faced a fierce fight from Germany over any policy that could mutualise debt in the eurozone.  "The combined monthly purchases of public and private sector securities will amount to €60bn euros,” said Mr Draghi at a press conference following a meeting of the ECB’s governing council.  “They are intended to be carried out until end-September 2016 and will in any case be conducted until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation," he added, meaning the package will amount to at least €1.1 trillion.  Mr Draghi’s package of asset purchases, including bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions such as the European Commission, is intended to boost the eurozone’s flagging economy and to ward off the spectre of deflation.  It took a dramatic toll on the euro, which dropped to an 11-year low against the dollar at $1.14. ....A trillion euros here, a trillion euros there... Before you know where you are, you;re talking real money....And still the fantasy rolls on...that somehow things will be OK in the end with the single currency, despite individual countries having different tax and fiscal regimes, different industrial, agricultural and commercial capacity, different wage and benefits structures...the list goes on and on. We all know that the Eurocrats love the idea of a superstate, and that such arrangement is the only way a single currency can work. Unfortunately for these dreamers, there are several problems along the way - by and large voters don't want it, national governments don't wish to lose power, the countries have wide differences in social and economic outlook. Fiddling the figures to pretend that certain late entrants to the Euroclub met the necessary requirements for entry was the beginning of the end of any credibility in the project. Doubtless QE will be another nail in its coffin. Little wonder that all the big banks have dusted off their plans for a return to the mark, franc, peseta, drachma et al... So much for German law and High Court. They'll do their usual faux debate, issue more faux warnings, etc. They have nothing better to offer. They look at the Dresden marches and see the ghost of old Prussia, Most Germans would sooner join Islam. What Draghi did is completely illegal, but it saves the Union. It was wink-wink from Berlin all along. Mutti has things under control, and Germans' only fear is that Mutti will step down. Last week the Reich outlawed marches offensive to violent religions--much to the relief of most Germans. Dhragi thus saves beer, bratwurst, cars for the foreseeable future, the past remains buried--which means no more Israeli blackmail--and beyond that a German has no business thinking about. Meanwhile, the Project shrugs and drags its carcass on to the next crisis. Like the Plague, all it has to do is stay alive for its next victim.

Friday, January 30, 2015

source - th telegraph - this is a piece of todays world !!!


Many of us are used to swiping or tapping a card to get into the office, but a Swedish firm has gone a step further by putting a chip under its employees' skin.
People working at Epicenter, a new hi-tech office block in Sweden, simply have to hold their hands against the front door to gain entry. They can also wave their hand to operate the photocopier, the BBC's Rory Cellan-Jones reports.
In time, they will also be able to pay for coffee and sandwiches in the cafe with a touch of a hand.
It's because some employees have a tiny RFID (radio-frequency identification) chip, about the size of a grain of rice, implanted.  A handful of staff currently have the chip, but soon others among the 400 workers will be given the chance.  On the day of the building's official opening, the developer's chief executive was, himself, chipped live on stage.  And even Cellan-Jones, the BBC's technology correspondent, had a go.  "A rather fearsome looking tattooist, inserted my chip," he explains. "First, he massaged the skin between my thumb and index finger and rubbed in some disinfectant. The he told me to take a deep breath while he inserted the chip. There was a moment of pain - not much worse than any injection - and then he stuck a plaster over my hand."
However, not all staff seem obliging. "Absolutely not," said one young man when asked if he'd sign up. An older woman saw little point in being chipped just to get through a door. 
The chips have been developed by a Swedish bio-hacking company.
Epicenter hopes the chips will soon catch on across the rest of the world.  "Today it's a bit messy - we need pin codes and passwords. Wouldn't it be easy to just touch with your hand? That's really intuitive," said Hannes Sjoblad, the company's chief disruption officer.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

A BRAIN-DEAD idea...

What EU leadership has offered to the world : ... The whole idea of creating the Euro without consolidating the debts was the BRAIN-DEAD idea of academics with ZERO trading experience and lawyers. We really cannot afford these types of people making financial decisions about how the run the world. Whatever Brussels could have done wrong, they did. (It was the idea of brain-dead french politicians with zero experience in almost anything except scooter driving and handling - not too well - multiple mistresses. The idea was to disarm the German Bundesbank by design and concept. A very french approach).   The EU politicians have assumed that they can dictate to the free markets by decree and suppress the right to freedom of choice, vote, and to just live un-harassed. The EU politicians have disregarded the people with the arrogance that they know what is best. The EU politicians are helping to destroy the world economy because they have tied the bank reserves to their own folly and then exempted them from mark-to-market to hide their track record. These politicians can hide their head in the sand to pretend they have not yet failed. However, the free markets ALWAYS win.  Well the free markets have voted. The Euro has crashed to the 1.15 level so far. A monthly closing BELOW 1.18 is a long-term sell signal; and support lies at 1.1375 A monthly closing beneath this level confirms the Euro is dead and should fall back to the 1.03-.96 area.  You just can’t make up this stuff. There should be a law against UNQUALIFIED people taking office. Enough is enough. These people create wars to cover up their mistakes. We have an ABSOLUTE right as a people NOT to be economic slaves to fools.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

It sounds at first like a crazy thought experiment: One morning, every resident of the euro zone comes home to find a check in their mailbox worth over €500 euros ($597) and possibly as much as €3,000. A gift, just like that, sent by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt.  Currently, the inflation rate is barely above zero and fears of a horror deflation scenario of the kind seen during the Great Depression in the United States are haunting the euro zone. The ECB, whose main task is euro stability, has lost control.  In this desperate situation, an increasing number of economists and finance professionals are promoting the concept of "helicopter money," tantamount to dispersing cash across the country by way of helicopter. The idea, which even Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman once found attractive, has triggered ferocious debates between central bank officials in Europe and academics. For backers, there's more to this than just a new instrument. They are questioning cast-iron doctrines of monetary policy.  One thing, after all, is becoming increasingly clear: Draghi and his fellow central bank leaders have exhausted all traditional means for combatting deflation.  The failure of these efforts can be easily explained. Thus far, central banks have primarily provided funding to financial institutions. The ECB provided banks with loans at low interest rates or purchased risky securities from them in the hope that they would in turn issue more loans to companies and consumers. The problem is that many households and firms are so far in debt already that they are eschewing any new credit, meaning the money isn't ultimately making its way to the real economy as hoped.  In response to this development, Sylvain Broyer, the chief European economist for French investment bank Natixis, says, "It would make much more sense to take the money the ECB wants to deploy in the fight against deflation and distribute it directly to the people." Draghi has calculated expenditures of a trillion euros for his emergency program, funds that would be sufficient to provide each euro zone citizen with a gift of around €3,000.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

The leading oil producer in Latin America, Venezuela, was meanwhile negotiating another big loan with China, as it takes a battering from the price drop and its own planned economy. While Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was in Beijing on , the daily El Nacional reported that China had already lent Venezuela more than $50 billion since 2007, though about half of that had been written off. Every Venezuelan it noted, owed China over $761. In oil-rich Mexico, experts were observing that the state may well have to envisage smaller budgets for several years, not just this year, as Mexico's own export blend may end up costing around just $30 a barrel. Milenio newspaper cited the Senate President Miguel Barbosa as suggesting that the cabinet should start drafting "austerity" plans — a word rarely heard in Mexico. The South China Morning Post reported on the economic stakes of the visit of Latin American leaders in China, although the Hong Kong daily also noted that the first windfall of lower oil prices could be felt in the air: lower costs for the world's airlines.  Analysts around the world widely agree that the most notable new factor in the current trend in energy production is the flood of mostly American-extracted shale gas into the market.  The Guardian notes that U.S. oil production has increased 48% over the past five years, which was originally offset by drops elsewhere. But as demand has also abated, prices have dropped, and may continue downward. Stephen Schork, a U.S.-based market analyst, told the London daily that investor “psychology” is driving oil trading. “We could get a rebound to $70 but we could see $30 before we see $70.”  The political ramifications weigh in the most immediate way on Russia, which may have to reconsider its aggressive policy towards  Ukraine, as it suffers the effects of both "western" sanctions and the sustained drop in oil prices.
Brussels is bent on destroying the private sector - apart from the European conglomerates. We will become like Russia - controlled by the State and a few oligarchs in hock to the leaders. The agenda is of course to destroy the independence of the States that make up the EU and what better way, than by destroying their independent businesses.  Hopefully Europe, the sick old man of the global economy, quietly shuffles off into further isolation and less prominence, with a whimper and not a bang. If European history of the last 2 centuries is of any indication however, that may prove to be wishful thinking. These verbose toffs may look effeminate to American eyes, but they have a peculiar genius for slaughtering each other and much worse, dragging every one else into the fray with them...It probably won't play-out quite as bloodily as in the past, but it could all be just as damaging when all is said and done, I'm afraid....If I remember rightly, I read somewhere (probably in the DT) that a senior member of the Saudi government had declared the country's intention to maintain current production even if the price of oil fell to $20 a barrel -- hence, presumably, the headline of this article....Motivation? Well, the high price of oil for the last number of years, driven in large part by the rapidly expanding Chinese economy, has motivated the exploitation of previously unviable sources of oil, as well as the development of shale, and the development of new technology in engine fuel economy. This wasn't a problem as long as the Chinese were prepared to buy whatever oil the world could produce, but now that the Chinese economy's expansion is slowing, they need less oil, which means there is now a glut. Saudi, which can produce it relatively easily and cheaply, has an opportunity to regain market share and put the kibosh on all the new technologies....If the long term average is $60/bbl, why would it drop to $20/bbl this year? $20/bbl in today's money doesn't compare at all with $20/bbl 15 years ago - this is a silly assumption. Similarly, $100/bbl oil price won't cause a revolution in major oil producing countries, $20/bbl risks widespread budget defects and revolution's. The ruler's of Saudi Arabia and their ilk have enough domestic issues to allow a low oil price to add to it. The US will not allow Saudi Arabia to persist with low oil prices indefinitely, they have a shale industry to protect. If the last goodness knows how many years has shown anything, it is that America survives on protectionism and aggression to protect its economy.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

BEIJING (AFP) -  China has appointed a top official of the ruling party's propaganda department as president of the Xinhua news agency, the key mouthpiece of the Communist state.
The appointment of Cai Mingzhao, a vice director of the propaganda department, is the latest of several replacements in the party's key information and media agencies over the past year.
Cai, 59, replaced Li Congjun, who turned 65 in October and reached the age limit for ministerial-level posts, the agency said in a statement on Wednesday.  Cai is "politically sober and firm, keeps an appropriate grasp in guiding public opinion and conscientiously aligns himself with the party's central committee", the statement quoted Pan Ligang, a deputy head of the party's Organisation Department, as saying.  Cai was previously head of the information office of the State Council, China's cabinet.  He worked for Xinhua for 23 years from 1978, reports said, first as a journalist and later promoted to managerial level. On Sunday, Luo Shugang, a vice director of the Propaganda Department, took over from Cai Wu as culture minister.
In April, Yang Zhenwu was appointed the new president of the People's Daily, the party's flagship newspaper.   Xinhua was founded in 1931 and started using its current name in 1937. It is headquartered in Beijing and has more than 180 outlets overseas, according to the agency's website.
The agency has a virtual monopoly on the distribution of information for the Chinese domestic market.
Global consumption of crude oil grew from around 83.2 million barrels a day to 90.4 million in the 10-years from 2004 to 2013, according to the EIA. With the exceptions of 2008 and 2009, when the global financial crisis stifled economic growth in much of the world, oil consumption has been rising, but about 65% of the increase is from the developing economies of China and India. China consumed about 6.44 million barrels a day in 2004 and 10.12 million barrels a day in 2013, while India added about a million barrels a day of consumption in the same period.
About 80% of world oil consumption is attributable to transportation by road, rail, sea and air. As a transportation fuel, products derived from oil are difficult to replace due to their high energy content, their transportability and their relative safety.
As a fuel for generating electricity, oil’s role has largely been relegated to one of meeting peak demand for short periods, but there are some exceptions. Saudi Arabia, for instance, currently generates 100% its electricity by burning oil or natural gas. Japan, following its nuclear disaster in 2011, is another temporary exception.
Among many developed countries, oil consumption is falling, due in part to slow economic growth that tamps down demand for crude. Another contributor to slowing demand is more fuel-efficient motor vehicles. As for future demand projections, it is too early to know how much of the decline in consumption is due to structural changes like more fuel-efficient vehicles and how much to a weak global economy. The answer to those questions will indicate both the direction and the strength of crude oil demand in the years to come.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

I am pro. EU.but unfortunately as time goes on it seems more likely that as the Federalist Gravy Train Merchants push their agenda further a nationalist backlash looms larger . The more responsibility these incompetents take on themselves the more they present a bigger target to the likes of UKIP . Individual governments make equally bad judgements but they can be held to account by their electorates , the alternative may be not much better but at least the people can have their say. Looking at the record of governance by the EU so far it has been a disaster for many of it's citizens. The clown Junker seems to have the attitude that democracy is only for the wealthy and that in the smallest of doses. Examine the Great New Junker Plan the most unlikely piece of economic nonsense since Ms Hollande promised to reduce unemployment by the power of social spending and an agreement to reduce coporate taxation but only if business took on staff they didn't want or need. Now The French can hold Hollande responsible ,and they surely will. But when a group that purports to be running a society and fails miserably to sectors of that society (whole countries) and those sectors have no means to change their governors that will invariably end in revolution.    
Nothing could be more patriotic than protecting the rights of free born Britons from the the clutches of EU bureaucrats and so leaving the corrupt, undemocratic empire in the making of Europe would help Britain to retain its place in the world as a free country.
There is so much disingenuous rubbish spouted by pro-EU folk - NATO kept the peace, not the EU in the last 60 years. Our jobs are safe as we would continue to trade with the EU and they with us regardless of whether we're in or out so that 3 million jobs lost claim is a complete fantasy. The EU is seen by the rest of the world as an anti free trade bloc (talks the talk but imposes a myriad of regulations to thwart the walk) operating barriers. EU fisheries policies have ruined the UK fisheries industry. In most southern EU countries the rule of law is not observed in the same way as it is in northern Europe, so we are aligned to a bunch of corrupt politicians whose main aim is self interest (as can be seen by the Brussels elite helping themselves to salaries and pensions out of all proportion to the usefulness of their work. The Euro was a vanity project where the rules were all broken to enable unsuitable countries to join, and rules throughout the EU are ignored by many countries where the national interest always overrides the agreed objectives of the EU.
I could go on... the EU has been a disaster for Britain and judging the results by having the ability to drive around the EU unimpeded by passport controls is the blinkered rose tinted view of a tourist ignorant of how horrid it is to deal with bureaucracy in much of Europe and how ghastly it is to get any justice when there has been no greasing of palms to get things done.

Thursday, December 11, 2014


After two bailouts totaling  €240bn (£192bn) since 2010, Greece wanted to switch back to market financing from the start of next year.   In October the government proposed breaking free of all financial oversight, but investors took fright at the suggestion, causing a sudden spike in the country’s bond yields.   The alternative is a back-up credit line from the eurozone that Athens could tap in an emergency. However, the troika, concerned about a potential €2bn budget gap in Greece’s finances, has asked for more information on pension reform before granting the measure. Greece has also brought forward presidential elections to December 17, which could see the conservative-led government replaced by the Syriza party. Alexis Tsipras, Syriza’s leader, has fought his political campaign on an anti-troika ticket.

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Reasons why oil prices are dropping:
  1. 1. Obama is against Keystone XL because he wants the oil to be still in the ground when his Islam take over Canada and the United State.
  2. 2. As long as prices stay high in the U.S. the people will keep DEMANDING that Obama approve of the Keystone XL. Only a large oil country like Saudi Arabia could solve that problem by se; omg oil to the U.S. at much lower prices, which they are doing.
  3. 3. When the gasoline and heating oil prices drop to a reasonable amount to quiet the public. the drop will stop and remain constant for a long period during which time the Islamic terrorists will get their attacks moving on a large scale to take over Canada and the U.S..
  4. 4. At the point when both Canada and the U.S. are taken over then the Islamic terrorists will have no one to capture except other Islamic countries; which will surely happen.
  5. 5. However, I do not think that the Islamic terrorists will succeed in taking over Canada and the U.S. and I think the suicidal efforts will fail to capture and in the meantime many other Islamic captives will begin a world-wide rebellion and Islam will be done for 10,000 years....
  6. In order for the U.S. economy to continue with the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation moving forward, Americans need to start spending more money. The strategy of low interest rates to stimulate the housing market and consumer spending has exhausted.  With QE coming to an end, what’s left to stimulate the American economy?
  7. As the holiday season nears next month, oil prices continue to fall, with global oil prices posting a fifth consecutive weekly loss. Is it simply a coincidence that oil’s decline has come on the heels of the end of QE?  Is it possible for the United States to manipulate the price of oil to further stimulate growth?