Sunday, November 15, 2015

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has suspended flights to Egypt, a Kremlin spokesman has said.  The move came after the head of the Russian federal security service suggested it would be “expedient” to suspend flights until the conclusion of the investigation into what brought down a Russian-operated airliner over the Sinai peninsula on Saturday, killing all 224 people on board.  Russia had previously suggested the UK was pre-judging the outcome of the investigation when it and Ireland suspended flights on Wednesday to and from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. The UK prime minister, David Cameron, has said it was “more likely than not” a bomb brought down the Metrojet Airbus A321-200.  “I think it will be reasonable to suspend all Russian flights to Egypt until we determine the real reasons of what happened,” Russian intelligence chief Alexander Bortnikov said in televised comments shortly before the Kremlin announced the suspension. “It concerns tourist flights most of all.”  Dmitry Peskov, the Kremin spokesman, said Putin was not suspending flights until the end of the crash investigation, but only until flight safety could be guaranteed, state news agency Tass reported.  “We need to make a clarification here: The president meant a suspension of air travel with Egypt until it is possible to establish the necessary safety level for air travel,” Peskov said.  Putin also ordered the Russian government to establish mechanisms to bring its citizens home, Peskov said. Around 45,000 Russians are currently on holiday in Egypt, Oleg Safonov, the head of Russia’s state tourism agency, Rostourism, told Tass.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Paris terror attacks an alarm bell for a borderless Europe - adio Shengen !

What to do - a few things that the European countries should do :
1. Leave EU. It serves no useful purpose.
2. Profile. Close borders to anyone who will not quickly and easily assimilate into British society.
3.Intern. Extreme threat calls for extreme counter measures .
4. Expel. (See 2 above.)
5. Never again allow those stupide idiot politicians who allowed my precious country to be so defiled , the oxygen to repeat their multi-cultural enrichment lies...
How do you close the barn door? The enemy is both within and without and it's all because of the EU. You, Europens need to get out of the EU before you're totally Merkelized...Above all, we must realise that although this atrocity will change things in France quite profoundly, it is an alarm call to the rest of Europe, to us, and to the whole of Western civilization.

Now in Paris ....watch...live

The United Kingdom, and its free-born citizens are NOT JUST ECONOMIC UNITS. We are a history, a culture, a democracy, a monarchist, christian country - whose citizens should HAVE THE RIGHT TO DETERMINE THEIR FUTURE - AND THAT OF THEIR COUNTRY.  It is NOT for those companies with vested interests in the eu (NOTE the eu) to have ANY voice whatsoever about the Future FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY of citizens of the United Kingdom.  We were NEVER EVER consulted about the federal monster that the common market has become. We were LIED TO by a Traitor - Heath, and by useless subsequent useful idiots in the civil service and government.  The FREE citizens of the United Kingdom will vote on whether we wish to be an independent, democratic country or whether to join the increasingly undemocratic, statist, federalist, socialist slave republic of the Coudenhove-Kalergi plan.  But it is WE who will decide - WE - who are MORE than economic units - WE - with our history and culture AT RISK - will make the choice. Not any b---y investment bankers who caused the financial crash.  NOT those b---y companies who make a fortune out of paying cheap labour with no moral responsibility to the ethnic people of the UK - who don't care that the ordinary people are being increasingly made poor, with more stress on our housing, energy, food and water supplies simply because it suits THEM to treat US as 'economic units'.  THE PEOPLE OF THE UK ARE MORE THAN ECONOMIC UNITS...First, this is the very opposite of the message that was being sent to business across the UK before the Scottish referendum when enormous pressure was being put on UK business to champion the Unionist cause. To argue that UK business should keep quiet now is totally inconsistent with that. Second, not a word is mentioned in this article about those businesses that have argued against EU membership like the hypocritical Lord Bamford who does not mind the UK leaving the EU (but his company, JCB,is building a brand new HQ and massive factory in Germany, inside the EU and the single market just in case). Perhaps the reason for this is that Allister Heath knows that his views are at odds with those of most of UK business. Third, any listed company is obliged to publish to shareholders any foreseeable risks to the success of the business. Even the uncertainty surrounding the referendum is enough to cause an element of risk, let alone departure from the EU. Since no one really knows what departure from the EU would look like (and no one has put forward any kind of blue print whatsoever), the uncertainty faced by business would be massive.
OK, there would probably be a free trade agreement (but even this is not guaranteed), but free trade is a very pale imitation of membership of a true single market and customs union with common technical standards across an entire Continent and a home market of 500 million people as currently enjoyed. That risk in itself should be enough to trigger every PLC and AIM listed company to publish details of the threats that an EU exit could cause to their business.  Fourth, membership of the EU is not party political so it is not like a company supporting a given political party at all. it goes to the heart of how this country will structure its development, not for 5 short years but for the foreseeable future. Fifth, EU membership is a bit of a package, and some to the right of the Tory party and in the Telegraph may campaign for example for an end to "social Europe" but that is not a universally held belief across all business. My firm offers all staff a minimum of four weeks paid holiday every year. Because of EU laws, so must our competitors. If that power were to be repatriated, and the UK Parliament with a majority Government elected by just 33% of the voting public were to repeal that, competitors may cut costs not be raising their efficiency (which would be legitimate) but by slashing social standards and maybe cutting holidays. If my firm does the right thing and maintains 4 weeks paid holiday, we are put at an unfair competitive disadvantage, not due to greater efficiency elsewhere, but by companies cutting costs by reducing social protection. In a race to the bottom of that kind, UK productivity will never rise, and of course we will always lose against cheap labour in Asia and Latin America.  Finally, the opinions offered are often those of the CEO or senior management. They are entitled to express their personal views just as much as any journalist or member of the public and frankly will know more about the real consequences of leaving the EU than most of us, including most journalists. And if they perceive a threat to jobs and investment in the UK they not only have the right to express it but a duty to do so.
Paris shooting: Many people killed and injured after 'Kalashnikov and grenade attacks' across French capital...Many people killed after several shootings and explosions across central Paris
 
 

Friday, November 13, 2015

The strong job growth in October paves the way for the Fed to hike the fed funds target rate in December... Job growth occurred in a range of industries last month, including professional/business services, health care, retail trade, food services, and construction.
Job growth has been strong for the past several years, while inflationary pressures remain subdued. In the past 12 months, job growth has averaged 230K per month. Average hourly earnings rose 2.5% year over year.  The Fed is very likely to raise the fed funds target rate in December. The strong of job growth implies that there is no reason to keep the fed funds target rate at near zero level. However, the pace of tightening is likely to restrained and gradual going forward as inflationary pressure remain subdued. Long-term interest rates should still stay at historically low levels, after rising slightly with monetary tightening, due to still low short-term interest rates, subdued inflationary pressures, elevated size of the Fed’s balance sheet, continued strong demand for safe assets, low long-term interest rates in overseas advanced economies and quantitative easing in the euro zone and Japan.”... USA jobs data, some odd anomalies which are difficult to interpret IMHO. There has to be a reason why corporate America has gone all gung ho, soft and cuddly over hiring the over 55's versus younger workers. Unless (puts on tin foil hat) there's something mischievous with the job figures and those over 55 are simply considered as working unless they state they're not. Perhaps it's just considerably cheaper to hire the over 55's...theories anyone?  In October the age group that accounted for virtually all total job gains was workers aged 55 and over. They added some 378K jobs in the past month, representing virtually the entire increase in payrolls. And more troubling: workers aged 25-54 actually declined by 35,000, with males in this age group tumbling by 119,000.  Since December 2007 workers aged 55 and older have gained over 7.5 million jobs in the past 8 years, whilst workers aged 55 and under have lost a cumulative total of 4.6 million jobs.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today that the US economy created 271,000 jobs in October, a number substantially in excess of the expected 175,000 to 190,000 jobs. The unexpected job gain has dropped the unemployment rate to 5 percent. These two numbers will be the focus of the financial media prostitutes.  What is wrong with these numbers? Just about everything. First of all, 145,000 of the jobs, or 54%, are jobs arbitrarily added to the number by the birth-death model. The birth-death model provides an estimate of the net amount of unreported jobs lost to business closings and the unreported jobs created by new business openings. The model is based on a normally functioning economy unlike the one of the past seven years and thus overestimates the number of jobs from new business and underestimates the losses from closures. If we eliminate the birth-death model’s contribution, new jobs were 126,000.  Next, consider who got the 271,000 reported jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all of the new jobs plus some—378,000—went to those 55 years of age and older. However, males in the prime working age, 25 to 54 years of age, lost 119,000 jobs. What seems to have happened is that full time jobs were replaced with part time jobs for retirees. Multiple job holders increased by 109,000 in October, an indication that people who lost full time jobs had to take two or more part time jobs in order to make ends meet.  Now assume the 271,000 reported jobs in October is the real number, and not 126,000 or less, where are those jobs? According to the BLS not a single one is in manufacturing. The jobs are in personal services, mainly lowly paid jobs such as retail clerks, ambulatory health care service jobs, temporary help, and waitresses and bartenders.