Monday, May 23, 2011

Last week saw real progress in reaching a solution to the Greek, Portuguese and Irish debt crises. It is now recognized that these countries can never, ever, repay their debts, certainly not on time, and more than likely not in full. A default by any other name is a default. It might doff its name, as Juliet thought Romeo might do, and choose "repositioning," or "soft restructuring," or "voluntarism," but it remains a default. If the renaming permits banks to continue the fiction that Greek paper is worth what is inscribed in their ledgers, so be it: sooner or later reality will catch up with them just as it has with the profligate governments now at the mercy of their euro-zone benefactors. No need to rehearse the arithmetic that has appeared in this and other columns. It is enough to point out that the bailouts assumed that the recipient governments would be able to return to the financial markets after a period of reliance for cash on the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and their euro-zone partners. In short, the eurocracy devised a plan for coping with a liquidity crisis when these countries were facing a solvency crisis. Diagnose the disease incorrectly, and the prescribed medicine will make the disease worse by prolonging the period before which a proper diagnosis is developed.

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