Friday, June 17, 2011

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy will meet in Berlin Friday - Event Risk - The Greek cabinet was reshuffled on Friday and will face a vote of confidence by Tuesday night. The political moves could be another potential flashpoint in a country already beset by fierce anti-austerity strikes. But some analysts said the euro was holding up well despite the uncertainty as the market held out hopes a solution could be reached and a new three-year bailout plan would be decided in July. "It's difficult keeping up with the event risks but policymakers are whittling down a timetable," said Tom Levinson, FX strategist at ING, adding euro/dollar at $1.4100 could turn out to be good value if progress is made. "This Sunday they should agree on another aid tranche for Greece and in July they should be agreeing the main aid package. Unless something major goes wrong with either the confidence vote or Germany does not soften its terms I think the euro will do better." Investor risk appetite was also hampered on Friday by weak U.S. regional manufacturing data that cemented concerns about a soft patch in the U.S. economy, causing prices in Asia to slump. Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said euro zone finance ministers will decide at a meeting on Sunday to disburse the next tranche of emergency loans to Greece in early July and decide on the new three-year bailout on July 11. Friday's and Sunday's meetings will be watched closely by the market for reassurance the Greek debt crisis can be resolved. "As an investor I would be quite nervous," said Ankita Dudani, G10 currency strategist at RBS. "There is a lot of uncertainty out there over what Germany wants and it is quite hard to see them coming up with something that works for everyone." Discord between the euro zone's paymaster Germany and the European Central Bank, backed by France, has spooked investors across asset classes, with the European stock index on track for its longest run of weekly declines since January 2008. Germany is insisting banks, pension funds and insurance firms that hold Greek debt swap their bonds for new ones with longer maturities.But fearful this solution could create a "credit event" and prompt rating agencies to label Greece in default, the ECB, European Commission and France all favour a softer option under which holders of Greek bonds would be asked to buy new Greek debt as their holdings mature.

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