Sunday, July 3, 2011

Analysts are increasingly questioning the French and German governments' plan for holders of Greek bonds to swap them for new loans as part of a fresh aid package. The Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, met his side of the rescue bargain last week by winning MPs' approval for radical new austerity measures, including €50bn of privatisations, public sector wage cuts and widespread civil service job losses. But eurozone ministers have so far failed to agree details of a new rescue, expected to be up to €110bn. The debt-swap proposal, which French and German banks have agreed to, involves offering new 30-year loans in exchange for expiring bonds, to meet Germany's demand that investors bear some of the costs of a new Greek bailout. But analysts say it is likely that ratings agencies could still brand the plan a default. That would trigger chaos in world markets, as investors were forced to slash the value of their Greek debts - and could also lead to Portugal and Ireland, the other bailed-out eurozone states, having their debts downgraded. Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon, said: "When you compare the French plan to what the ratings agencies have said, it looks as though they would make it a default." Standard & Poor's said no final decision would be made on the scheme until the full details were published but pointed out a recent statement setting out the reasons a debt-swap might still constitute a default. "While an exchange offer for longer-dated bonds may appear to be 'voluntary', we may conclude that investors have been pressured into accepting because they fear more adverse consequences were they to decline the exchange offer," S&P said.

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