We,(the whle world economy in fact)are sliding towards another debt-ridden disaster, with the eurozone and China one shock away from a fresh crisis, according to a leading economics consultancy.

Fathom Consulting, which is run by former Bank of England economists, said current levels of low volatility masked systemic risks in the global financial system.

Danny Gabay, director of Fathom, said an oil price shock would be enough to trigger a "hard landing" in China as growth slowed, house prices plummeted and the country's already huge amount of non-performing loans soared.  Mr Gabay drew parallels between China today and America in 2006, when a number of households began to default on their sub-prime mortgages but authorities played down the potential impact on the rest of the global economy. Fathom also said high levels of non-performing loans in the eurozone posed a threat to the 18-nation bloc, while a strong euro and contracting private sector credit would push the eurozone into deflation within the next 12 months.  Charles Goodhart, senior economic consultant at Morgan Stanley and a former Bank of England rate setter, compared Fathom's assessment of global risks to the ideas of Hyman Minsky, who believed that "stability is destabilising" and the global financial system itself could generate shocks because of investor complacency.  "When you have so much stability, particularly at very low yields, what everyone does is they reach for yield, and they take on riskier and riskier positions. When something causes the balloon to blow up, then you're in real trouble," said Mr Goodhart. Mr Goodhart said Beijing's "remarkable track record" of "managing success" led him to believe that China would be able to contain another crisis.  However, Mr Gabay argued that the Chinese authorities might be reluctant to prop up the whole banking system in the event of a crisis, as this could send out a signal that the state was prepared to shoulder all losses.  "A lot of people say that the authorities can afford to bail the system out, and there's nothing to worry about. But I think you'd be very silly to think that Lehman Brothers happened because the Americans couldnt afford to stop it. Of course they could afford it. They just didn't.  "We see a soft landing in China, but there's a very significant risk that they will be unable to contain the "inevitable" banking crisis, because they're not superhuman, and there's a lot of money sloshing around out there that's non-performing." Fathom expects eurozone inflation to fall "below zero within a year", with core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, "way below that".  "A substantial proportion of the eurozone is expected to be in deflation," said Mr Gabay. "And that's what ultimately we think will force the European Central Bank's hand [to launch quantitative easing]"... There will be a "shock" that will plunge the global economy into another recession. However, the cause will have nothing to do with China and will be much closer to home.

Being "European", the only thing you have to be aware of is the inevitable rise in interest rates. It is the inevitable delay in the rise of interest rates that has allowed the Europe's even Germany's an UK's economy's faint heart beat to continue for the past 8-9 years! More so, "nothing lasts forever" and the BoE as well as ECB ( and the other "sheisters" ) and other central banks raising their interest rates (and you've heard it here first!), will actually be the go-ahead for the beginning of the end of all major (and dare I say now worthless and useless ) indebted currencies (this financial crisis & QE was the finial nail in the coffin for individual currencies as we once knew ) and the creation of just 3 or 4 new currencies to be used globally.

Don't worry about China. Worry about that Canadian (and others.) who are firmly in the pockets of some extremely undesirable characters.

On the question of the single currency and its survival, the majority -- 54 percent -- believes that Germany should not continue to fight to save the euro if it has to provide additional billions in aid. A sizeable minority (41 percent) disagrees, however, while 5 percent are undecided.

The survey revealed that this skepticism is shared by Germans of almost all political affiliations. Among respondents who support Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), 52 percent said it was almost pointless for Germany to continue fighting for the single currency, while 45 percent disagreed. The figures are similar among supporters of the opposition center-left Social Democratic party (54 percent versus 43 percent), which has generally supported Merkel in her efforts to fight the crisis.

The greatest skepticism was found among supporters of the far-left Left Party, 68 percent of whom felt it was pointless to keep fighting to save the euro. The most pro-European tendencies were found in the camp of the environmentalist Green Party. There, 64 percent thought Germany should keep trying to rescue the monetary union.

The divide in the responses mirrors a current debate among top economists in Germany. This week, influential German economist Hans-Werner Sinn published an open letter, signed by around 170 economists, criticizing the resolutions agreed upon at the most recent European Union summit and claiming that Merkel was "forced into" agreement at the meeting. Other leading economists, including Peter Bofinger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts that advises the German government, have reacted by attacking the letter and defending Merkel's policies.

The survey was conducted by the pollster TNS on July 3-4. Around 1,000 Germans aged 18 and over took part.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission granted the first batch of licenses under a newly launched trial program that allows yuan funds raised offshore to be invested in China's capital markets, according to some of the funds and people familiar with the situation. The Hong Kong subsidiaries of asset managers Harvest Fund Management Co., E Fund Management, HuaAn Fund Management Co. and HFT Investment Management received the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor licenses today, according to the funds. Renminbi is another name for the Chinese currency.

There is little doubt that European banks need shoring up right now. That fact was made clear Wednesday, when 523 banks tapped the European Central Bank for a record 489 billion euros (nearly $640 billion) in loans. Compared with their American peers, they have been much more dependent on borrowing in recent years to finance their lending binges. On average, European banks’ loan books exceed their deposits by 1.2 times. In the United States the average loan-to-deposit ratio is 0.70. The upshot is that it will probably take much longer for Europe’s banks to unwind their bad loans and debt than it has for American banks. The European Banking Authority, after a third round of stress tests in October, has ordered Europe’s fragile banks to raise more than 114 billion euros in fresh cash in the next six months. By June 2012, the region’s financial institutions will need to increase their so-called core Tier 1 capital ratio — the strictest measure of a bank’s ability to resist financial shocks — to 9 percent of assets. That ratio, higher than the 5 percent preliminary target that the Federal Reserve set for American banks this week, reflects the acute capital strains that European banks are facing. To meet the new European standard, analysts predict that the region’s banks could end up selling assets, shrinking loan books and shutting down foreign subsidiaries in a de- leveraging process that may exceed 3 trillion euros in the coming years. And unless they are able to find better methods to restore their balance sheets — including direct support from their equally stressed national governments — many banks could well end up failing, analysts warn.

No bailouts - Barklays

Barclays boss Bob Diamond has said that taxpayers should not bail out banks, and that those banks that get into trouble should be allowed to fail. "It is not OK for taxpayers to bail out banks," Mr Diamond told a Treasury Committee hearing. On bonuses, he said that Barclays "paid for performance, not for failure". The government has called on banks to pay smaller bonuses, with Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg urging them to be "sensitive to the public mood". Mr Diamond said that Barclays had yet to decide on bonus payments to its staff for this year. He added that the "majority" of the amount paid in bonuses went to investment bankers, rather than staff in the retail banking arm. "We are sensitive, we are listening [to calls for restraint], and there is no lack of effort in recognising the importance of this issue and being responsible [over bonuses]," he said. He said that Barclays had "no intention of paying more in bonuses than is necessary". However, he said the bank had to balance these responsibilities with "the environment we operate in", referring to the fact that if Barclays were to unilaterally reduce bonuses, top staff could leave to join competitors. He said he had waived his bonus for the past two years but would wait until he was offered one this year before deciding whether to accept it.