Western stock markets seem to be assuming that this little spat with Russia will blow over, and that it will soon be business as usual.

It won't. There's a terrible inevitability to events.

The annexation of Crimea was a no-brainer, since Russia needed to protect its naval bases there. The installation of puppet Russian administrations in the Southern and Eastern Ukraine is also inevitable. The problem here is that the process will not be peaceful, and the appearance of Russian tanks in Ukraine to "protect" Russian-speaking people is a certainty.

This will trigger off draconian economic sanctions by the USA and the EU, and Russia will inevitably respond the only way it can, by turning off the gas pipeline. It is impossible to predict events beyond that, but what we can be sure of is that it will not be pretty and it will not be good for world stock markets....Anyone who has worked in resources realizes that to-date, there has been enormous levels of Western investment into Russia, especially into the energy sector; the demand from which will not dissipate over time. If push came to shove, massive debts to Western (especially German) banks would be dishonored entirely, coupled with the nationalization of EU energy assets. There is no doubt Russia will have a tough time of it - but understand that the Russian psyche can handle it. The confiscation of wealth from the West (Germany) as a net creditor, and UK based resource companies would be a very, very large financial blow, which could take decades to recover from. Not including the resultant damage to European manufacturing from massively higher energy costs.

Nothing in life is simple. Cliché characterizations are unless, Putin is doing what he thinks is best... don't forget, the guy is a student of history. Perspective is everything. History does nothing but demonstrate time and time again, its the small insults, the loss of pride in a relatively benign situation, that quickly spins out of control; underlying the unpredictability of human emotion maybe.

I assume the EU never did any forward inductive analysis before they backed a group that overthrew a democratically elected government !!! Because this was always the most obvious outcome under any Game Theory analysis. It is abundantly clear (to me at least) that since Crimea has left, any future Ukrainian elections will no longer allow ethic Russians (numerically) the chance of political power. It is a mathematical inevitability that they will increasingly become a sidelined as massive minority.

Furthermore, given the Ukrainian leadership has no intention of allowing political and economic devolution (which is also opposed by the EU) – realistically, the only political and logical outcome for this minority is self-determination via force of arms. Of course Russia will inevitable have to enter the fray (remember the Falklands anyone???).

AEP's economic threats are mere futile war drum beats from yesterdays story. This book has already been written. The best that strategists can hope to glean from this transition, is to make it as comfortable and as less disruptive as possible. But given nationalism is not a fertile field for logical outcomes - the risk remains that this situation could get a lot larger and uglier as well. The Ukrainian government for one, appears desperate to want to ramp this up significantly...

Whilst Washington is throwing paper darts in the form of notional Russian debt obligations to insolvent Western banks, the Russians just dig up more oil, gas, gold (whatever, you name it..) and trade with China, India, Brazil etc.
All the US government has is paper money and missile systems that don't work, a rigged stock market, a rigged US treasury market and shale gas/oil that takes more dollars to extract (ex. tax break) than it costs in the market.

The only reason there aren't riots outside Wal-Mart is the debt forbearance shown by China for the plastic junk the infantilized US population seem to need to live the American dream (or is that nightmare..?).

The US empire is running on empty and we're seeing the results now in this last desperate attempt to show they're still a 'contender'. If it wasn't so scary it would be pathetic - what a sad end for that marvelous tool for what could have been human emancipation, the American constitution.

Instead of leading the world (which I think was a possibility before the NeoCon tragedy), they are vaporizing men, women and children with drones in countries most American couldn't even find on a map, under some phony pretext, to boost the military-industrial complex. It's like watching a person destroying themselves with drugs and their family members around them....I'm genuinely saddened by it.

....Move on, nothing to see here....or is it ?

At least the French have a convincing politician to whom they can turn.  She also doesn't pull her punches on the unmitigated and undeniable social and cultural disaster that is mass immigration.  All we have in our political class are varying degrees of effete, self serving liars, traitors and multi-cult fetishists.

Mrs Le Pen said her first order of business on setting foot in the Elysee Palace will be to announce a referendum on EU membership, "rendez vous" one year later. "I will negotiate over the points on which there can be no compromise. If the result is inadequate, I will call for withdrawal," she said. It is no longer an implausible prospect. "We cannot be seduced," she said, brimming with confidence after her party secured 46pc of the vote in a by-election earthquake a week ago. Her candidate trounced the ruling Socialists in their own bastion of Villeneuve-sur-Lot.  "The euro ceases to exist the moment that France leaves, and that is our incredible strength. What are they going to do, send in tanks?" she told the Daily Telegraph at the Front National's headquarters, an unmarked building tucked away in the Paris suburb of Nanterre. Her office is small and workaday, almost austere. "Europe is just a great bluff. One side there is the immense power of sovereign peoples, and on the other side are a few technocrats," she said. For the first time, the Front National is running level with the two governing parties of post-War France, Socialists and Gaullistes. All are near 21pc in national polls, though the Front alone has the wind in its sails. Yet it is the detail in the Villeneuve vote that has shocked the political class. The Front scored highest in the most Socialist cantons, a sign that it may be breaking out of its Right-wing enclaves to become the mass movement of the white working class....

Asked if she intends to pull France of the euro immediately, she said: "Yes, because the euro blocks all economic decisions. France is not a country that cannot accept tutelage from Brussels," she said. Officials will be told to draw up plans for the restoration of the franc. Eurozone leaders will face a stark choice: either work with France for a "sortie concertee" or coordinated EMU break-up: or await their fate. Mrs Le Pen fears that other EMU states will resist and let "financial Armaggedon" run its course, but it is a risk that has be taken. Her plan is based on a study by economists from l'École des Hautes Études in Paris led by Professor Jacques Sapir. It concludes that France, Italy, and Spain would all benefit greatly from EMU-exit, restoring lost labour competitiveness at a stroke without years of depression. They say the eurozone's North-South imbalances have already gone beyond the point of no return. Attempts to reverse this by deflation and wage cuts must entail mass unemployment and loss of the industrial core. The current strategy of internal devaluation is self-defeating in any case, since recession causes debt ratios to climb faster. 

No mention of this Euro bombshell in: Der Spiegel, El Pais, BBC
and very little in Le Monde....Move on, nothing to see here.

There is hope, real hope, that the Euro monster will implode.

And before you call me racist, I love Europe, the culture and the people. I am a European....Please don't get me wrong. I deplore the EU and all it claims to stand for (itself)!!

George Soros, the billionaire speculator best known as "the man who broke the Bank of England" in 1992, has launched a stinging critique of Germany's role in the euro crisis and suggested the single currency's prospects would be improved if its most dominant member were to quit. In an incendiary speech made on Tuesday afternoon in Germany's financial centre of Frankfurt, the hedge fund trader told Europe's richest country it had gone too far during the bailout of Cyprus, was itself heading for recession and should either leave the euro or reverse its long held opposition to eurobonds – a form of sovereign debt that would mean each member country's borrowings were guaranteed by the whole eurozone.  "My first preference is eurobonds; my second is Germany leaving the euro," he said in his lecture, entitled: How to save the European Union from the euro crisis. "It is up to Germany to decide whether it is willing to authorise eurobonds or not," he said at Frankfurt's centre for financial studies.  "But it has no right to prevent the heavily indebted countries from escaping their misery by banding together and issuing eurobonds.  "In other words, if Germany is opposed to eurobonds it should consider leaving the euro and letting others introduce them." In an address which appealed over German chancellor Angela Merkel and directly to German voters, who go to the polls in federal elections later this year, Soros implored the country to change course. "I hope that by offering you a different perspective I may get you to reconsider your position before more damage is done," he said. "That is my goal in coming here."

He added: "The financial problem is that Germany is imposing the wrong policies on the eurozone. Austerity doesn't work. You cannot shrink the debt burden by shrinking the deficit.

Portugal's PM has criticized the top court's ruling that parts of the 2013 budget are unconstitutional, and has held urgent talks with the president. PM Pedro Passos Coelho held an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Saturday and said the Constitutional Court had made meeting commitments to international lenders difficult.

The court had rejected four out of nine austerity measures in the budget.The PM met the president late on Saturday to discuss the next steps. President Anibal Cavaco Silva said after the talks that the coalition government should remain in office and that the country should honour its international commitments.

Rein in spending. The government said it respected the court's ruling but did not agree with it, suggesting that the judges had failed to take into account steps taken by the government to make its austerity measures fair to all citizens.

After the cabinet meeting, the government said the court ruling had created "serious difficulties" for meeting budget targets agreed with international lenders.  The BBC's Alison Roberts in Lisbon says the PM is expected to make a statement on Sunday evening.

The court ruling would deprive the state of some 1.5bn euros (£1.3bn) in savings the government had said were necessary to meet the terms of a eurozone and International Monetary Fund bailout.

The terms require Portugal, which has already received 61bn euros of its bailout, to rein in spending sharply.

The court rejected a measure to scrap summer holiday bonuses for public sector workers and pensioners, as well as cuts to unemployment and sickness benefits.

So, as a good socialist I transfer the debt to the average Joe

The vast majority of the EU states are socialist, so I believe, the main aim of socialism is to transfer wealth from those that have to those that have not to make it a fairer society.--- So as a good socialist I transfer the debt to the average Joe tax payer to protect the wealth of shareholders, bondholders and depositors. So Joe tax payer gets poorer and the rich get richer.---So I am a capitalist, I believe in a free market....Joe tax payer is protected for small amounts by the government i.e. all taxpayers. Its just insurance really Joe taxpayer has already paid for with his taxes. The bank goes bust free market forces. The shareholders, bondholders and wealthy depositors get stuffed. Wealth redistribution at a stroke with out the need for expensive tax collection and redistribution....I am sure all the educated people will tell me were I am going wrong....The wealthy by winning the competition have power to circumvent the market forces. So no pure market exists or is possible, and if ever it happened it would destroy itself in monopoly. It is even doing a good job of this at the moment without this 'purity'....Question - rhetoric : With so much continuing financial doom and gloom around Europe, the Euro and Spanish banks why have European stock markets followed far East markets and risen by more than 1% on opening this morning?. Is there something happening out there in the 'markets' that only a select few are aware of?... The ECB has  let the broader M3 money supply contract for the whole eurozone late last year, badly breaching its own 4.5pc growth target. This was not purist hard-money discipline. Let us not dress it up with the bunting of ideology, or false authority. It was incompetence, on a par with the errors of 1931.

Spain’s Bankia fiasco has merely brought matters to head, though the details are shocking enough. A €4bn bail-out in mid-May. A €23bn bail-out two weeks later. You couldn’t make it up.

arbitraj@aol.com

The total value of private deposits in Greek banks down to €170.1bn, the lowest in over five years and 30% below their peak of December 2009. The steady decline in deposite is partly due to worried citizens removing their savings in case the Greek banking sector should collapse, or even leaving the country altogether. But it also reflects that fact that people have been using their savings to keep afloat, following rising unemployment and wage cuts. In Brussels, EU officials have denied claims that Spain may have to seek financial help. European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj has just told a press conference that media reports that Spain may seek bailout aid are "completely without foundation". Altafaj added that the private sector should be able meet most of the cost of overcapitalizing Spain's banks. As we flagged up, analysts fear that the Spanish government will be unable to pick up the bill.

The other Europe ...today's developments - At this hour ( 1:30 pmlocal time), there are people gathering in the center of Bucharest once more.

ROMANIA: More than 30 people were injured Sunday during a protest that turned violent in Romania’s capital, with demonstrators throwing stones and riot police using tear gas, medical sources said. Around a thousand Romanians had gathered in central Bucharest to voice anger at falling living standards and call on President Traian Basescu to step down. At this hour ( 1:30 PM. local time), there are people gathering in the center of Bucharest once more.

CZECH REPUBLIC: The Czech government’s restitution bill that compensates churches for property and assets confiscated during communist rule has raised political tensions and fiscal costs, and as such is credit negative, Moody’s Investors Service said Monday. The bill commits the state to transferring CZK170 billion, or 4.3% of gross domestic product, to the churches, Moody’s noted. Furthermore, if tensions result in the exit of Public Affairs (VV) from the ruling coalition, early elections would have to be called to form a new government, the credit rating firm pointed out.
SLOVAKIA: Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Slovak Republic to ‘A’ from ‘A+’, and affirmed the short-term ‘A-1′ rating
BULGARIA: Miners at Bulgaria’s largest coal producer, state-owned Maritza East Mines, went on strike Sunday after failing to obtain demanded wage increases, miners’ union leader Valentin Valchev said.

Across Central and Eastern Europe, the story is much the same. Governments from Hungary to Bulgaria that once clamored to join the euro club are putting plans on hold and reassessing the costs and benefits of something that used to seem inevitable. The spread of the euro was seen as part of Europe's manifest destiny, and the countries that emerged from behind the Iron Curtain saw the adoption of the currency as a potent sign of success, both political and economic. The change of heart is an ominous portent for the decades-long process of increasing European economic integration. The common currency is the centerpiece and the leading symbol of that integration. If enthusiasm wanes for the euro, boosters fear, this could spell trouble for other efforts to knit the nations of the Continent together. Moreover, economies like Poland's and the Czech Republic's are the kind that euro-zone leaders want to bring into their currency union—competitive, with low debt and strong growth prospects. It's hard to see how the bits and pieces that have been leaked so far from a draft EU statement move the ball forward for the euro. It reads more like a wish list, rather than a deal. Members WANT a fiscal compact, and so the statement "calls" for one. But that's very different than signing a deal. And yet the euro initially rallied. It WANTS to rally. There is a lot of goodwill going around. But it's not clear where the concrete action is.

Hot news and ...comentary - Hang on....

Just in -- the eagerly awaited Italian debt auction has finished (earlier than we'd indicated). The good news is that the auction was a success, with Italy finding buyers for the full €3bn of debt. The less-good news is that the yield jumped to 6.29%, from 5.3% at a similar auction last month. That means that investors demanded a much higher interest rate in return for buying the debt. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 1.469%, up from 1.34% in October. So, more demand, but only at a much higher interest rate.

Hang on...there is an alternative to this crisis of moribund STATE MONOPOLY CAPITALISM - A SOCIALIST UNITED STATES OF EUROPE! Capitalism is doomed by it's inherent contradictions of class struggle over the division of surplus value and the antagonisms of nation states through economic competition. You know as well as I do that the class nature of the system makes genuine, lasting international economic co-operation impossible. Capital, in the hands of a few private owners, in the current crisis, is being used in more and more dangerous ways which is destroying whole economies; the ultimate being WORLD WAR. (militarized economics). All in vain attempts to recuperate ever increasing losses. It's akin to watching Rome burn slowly as mindless idiots pore more fuel on the fire! Our lords and masters won't accept that their economic mode is finished for obvious reasons. They are the modern dinosaurs. They sincerely believe that wealth can be created by throwing a few chips on the table! Capital is a social product which belongs to everyone. It should be used in a balanced, constructive manner across the globe. This requires an end to the blind anarchy of markets which serve the interests of the few. Then there will be no need for different currencies or destructive speculation. We've all been brainwashed into believing that Socialism will always turn into a Stalinist nightmare. What about another Fascist nightmare which I have hinted at in my recent postings?... In October EFSF came up with a plan to Guarantees the new European bonds by 20%However 2 weeks later this plan has been a failure. The reasons are: Unlike the Brady Bonds ( South American debt restructuring by consolidating the old debt and making the banks take haircuts plus Guarantees from the US Treasury) The EFSF plan would not restructure existing debt hence carrying the problem forward ; the Guarantee's are too small- 20%. even 30% is doubtful as enough : the fact the debt is being guaranteed by countries in a basket of defaults does not give lenders any confidence ; 800 Billion Euros of guarantees is available but the debt to be refinanced is 2000 Billion. A shortfall of 1200 Billion...So now France and Germany want to get out of this plan as they will not allow the ECB to buy the debt.

OECD secretary general Angel Gurria warned of "patches of mild negative growth" in 2012 and called for bold action from leaders attending the G20 summit in Cannes this week to implement the euro region's rescue package "promptly and forcefully". UBS chose to be more direct, cutting its growth outlook for the euro area from 1pc to 0.2pc and saying it was "now forecasting a recession for the first half of 2012". Warnings were also sounded about the global outlook, with the International Labour Organization suggesting that widespread unemployment could spark civil unrest. It claimed that only half the 80m jobs needed over the next two years would be created and that it will take another five years for employment to return to pre-crisis levels. According to UBS, the UK is in a relatively resilient position compared with the eurozone. "After underperforming the euro area this year, we expect GDP growth to exceed the euro area's in 2012," it said. However, it added that George Osborne may have to adjust his austerity programme to hit his targets or accept that he will fail to meet them. "If the economic recovery is as weak as we expect, the coalition Government will have to revise its fiscal plans," the UBS economists said.

Greece has to overcome six obstacles in order to obtain the sixth aid instalment and the new Memorandum of Understanding. The government faces its past failures, intraparty opposition and social unrest, as it is called to implement MoU and October 26 agreements without room for fresh delays. In fluidity of the situation, EU officials speak of Greece’s last chance. New delays would jeopardize the new loan and the sixth installment.
1. Until November 15, the disbursement of the aid installment requires ministerial decisions and interventions that would demonstrate that the medium-term program is under implementation. About 24,000 civil servants would be informed soon about their future, while interventions regarding SOEs, insurance and healthcare system are also required.
2 Troika representatives are expected in Athens in a month for the next audit, while new measures are likely. Privatization program, deregulation of closed professions and reforms in public sector should be accelerated.
3. Completion of the new loan agreements and the new MoU, which should be signed by the end of the year and would determine Troika’s supervision over Greece. The negotiations are anticipated to begin in a month.
4. 2012 budget should be finalized soon, providing forecasts of recession, revenue and expenditure, and including all measures in detail.
5. The new tax bill would be passed by the end of the year.
6. The completion of negotiation with private bondholders. The results would be announce in early 2012.

France wants the euro region's European Central Bank (ECB) to be a backstop for an expanded EFSF, currently guaranteed by eurozone governments. Germany, the eurozone's economic powerhouse, and the central bank itself are unwilling, seeing such as move as outside its role. "We think that clearly the best solution is that the fund has a banking licence with the central bank," Francois Baroin, the French finance minister, said on Wednesday. "Everyone knows about the reticence of the central bank. Everyone also knows about the Germans' reticence." Throughout the two-year debt crisis, Berlin has argued for solutions in which the private sector debt holders are more exposed to losses. "In Germany, the coalition is divided on this issue. It is not just Angela Merkel who we need to convince," Mr Sarkozy was reported to have told colleagues on Wednesday. A senior EU source said the negotiations were proving "very difficult", with the size of the haircut to be given on Greek debt held by private investors also an issue. The depth of the tension emerged even as markets were boosted by a report on Tuesday night that France and Germany had agreed, through an alternative plan, to expand the rescue fund's firepower to €2 trillion. Under this proposal, the rescue fund would guarantee the first 20pc or so of any losses of distressed governments' debt, meaning its stretch would be up to five times greater. Investors shrugged off the news that Spain's credit rating had once again been downgraded, with Moody's, one of the triumvirate of top rating agencies, cutting it by two notches to A1. The FTSE 100 closed up 40.14 points of 0.7pc at 5,450.49.

Slovenian MPs can still vote on the second Greek bail-out and beefed-up euro rescue fund, the EFSF, despite the fall of the government, but getting them to vote Yes "could be a problem." Barbara Reflak, foreign policy advisor to centre-left caretaker prime minister Borut Pahor, who was defenestrated in a no-confidence vote on Tuesday, told EUobserver on Wednesday (21 September) that parliament will still vote on the measures as planned on 27 September. She added that a positive result is far from a safe bet, however. "When the finance committee met yesterday [to vote on the measures], it was very tight. They got through by seven votes pro and six against ... We already had a minority government and the whole opposition is against it," she said. Noting that Slovenia is cutting pensions in its own austerity plan, she went on: "It's very hard for MPs and ordinary people to understand why we have to make cuts in our own budget and on the other hand we are giving a second bail-out to Greece. And we keep reading in the papers that they don't conform to [austerity] programmes." "The government says we need a stable eurozone and that this is in Slovenia's interest. That's our message, but it's a difficult one to promote right now. It [the vote] could be a problem." The latest scare for markets watching whether the EU will get its act together on the financial crisis comes after Pahor lost the confidence vote by 51 to 36 over pensions reforms and corruption allegations. The development immediately saw Slovenian bonds become more pricey compared to German ones and the country's stock exchange, the Sbitop, drop almost one percent. The likely new leader, who could take over in snap elections in December, centre-right politician Janez Jansa, has in the past said the Greek bail-out "isn't fair" because Greek workers earn more than Slovenian ones. Slovenia - together with Austria, Finland, Malta and the Netherlands - is also seeking Greek collateral for any fresh loans, further complicating the ratification process, which requires all 17 eurozone members to pass the measures before they enter into life. The Slovenian scare comes on top of problems in Austria, where the parliament's finance committee has delayed the EU bail-out bill, and Slovakia, where a junior coalition partner has come out against it.

Two of the leading Petrom top managers, who were in the company's management team ever since the privatisation of the oil and gas producer in 2004, have this year left to carry out the reorganisation of OMV's latest acquisition: Petrol Ofisi."I won't be talking about Petrom today because it is already going in the right direction, of integration. Let's talk about Turkey." This was one of the opening messages conveyed by Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, CEO of OMV in London, at the latest media summit organised by the Austrian oil group, Petrom's majority shareholder.
In mid-October, OMV finalised the acquisition of Turkey's biggest petrol station chain, Petrol Ofisi, for which it paid one billion euros, securing a significant share of a market credited with the biggest chances of growth in the next period.Reinhard Pichler, 49, former CFO of Petrom, left his position last week, being replaced by Daniel Turnheim, a member of the OMV group since back in 2002. Pichler is not leaving the group, however, but will go to Turkey, where he will fill the same position he has occupied in Petrom since 2004.At the beginning of this year Tamas Mayer, who used to be in charge of Petrom's marketing operations, i.e. of the nearly 550 distribution stations, left the position to become Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of Petrol Ofisi. According to some sources, Mayer will be running marketing operations within Petrol Ofisi, as well.Agerpres, Mediafax, Romanian Vancouver Sun,Global News, Financial Times,Tribune, ,Wall Street Journal,The Washington Times,Athens News,The New York Times,USA Today,Le Monde

IMF to relax deficit targets for the co-funding of more EU projects

The IMF should relax budgetary gap targets for Romania so that more EU projects could be co-funded, states Andreas Treichl, a CEO with Erste Group, which controls BCR. "Romania is in a situation of conflicting objectives: its strong advantage are the funds available from the EU, but governmental funding is also necessary for these funds to be used. If money from the budget is allotted, deficit targets agreed on with the IMF are overshot and a conflict of 'interests' emerges. The IMF could relax the targets for the European funds to be used. This will be a very interesting exercise in the following months," Treichl stated.Banks have a direct interest in the success of such a move, considering many entrepreneurs and public authorities need loans to be able to co-fund the European funds they try to get. It remains to be seen whether the banking lobby in this respect will be as strong as in the case of modifications requested for Ordinance 50 regarding retail loan contracts.

Romania's international foreign currency reserves

Romania's international foreign currency reserves do not necessarily need to grow as they stand at a comfortable level, according to the governor of Romania's Central Bank (BNR), Mugur Isarescu.
He mentioned we have to give up the idea that it is a good thing if the international reserve is growing, NewsIn states.
As to the gold reserves of the neighbor countries, he said the central lender of Bulgaria has a reserve of 39.8 tons, that from Latvia 7.8 tons, that from Lithuania 5.9 tons, that from Poland 103 tons and that from Slovakia 31.7 tons. Romania's gold reserve stands at 103.7 tons.
The governor also talked about the gain from administering the international reserves, which dropped dramatically from 2008 and 2009 and even more in 2010.
The price of gold rose 2.5 times in the past five years.
Romania's foreign currency reserves lowered by 1.13 percent in June from the previous month, to 31.62 billion euros, according to a release issued by the central lender BNR.
Romania's international reserves – foreign currency and gold – eased 0.7 percent at the end of June to 34.99 billion euros, from 35.25 billion euros at the end of May.
The gold reserve maintained at 103.7 tons, but the evolution of international prices increased its value by 3.37 percent to 3.37 billion euros, from 3.26 billion euros in the previous month.