If the World goes into a nose dive there will still be top dog countries or
safer heavens. The time to worry is when people start to starve then civil war
breaks out. AS long as they can keep bellies full then civil unrest will be held
at bay.
Back in the 1970s, the eurozone economies, then among the most dynamic on
earth, generated 20pc of global growth. Over the past decade, this growth share
has fallen to 5pc. Yet the single currency area still accounts for more than a
fifth of the global economy. More fundamentally, the region’s banking sector is
so distressed, and many of its governments so close to insolvency, that
“eurogeddon” could spark a worldwide shockwave every bit as damaging as Lehman.
And this time, of course, there is far less scope for fiscal and monetary
bail-outs – not only in Europe, but in the US and elsewhere, too. Of course,
the UK, already in recession and reliant on the eurozone to buy more than half
its exports, is among the most seriously exposed. In May, Britain’s
manufacturing PMI index nosedive to 45.9, the weakest reading since May 2009,
down from 50.2 the month before. This marked the second biggest one-month drop
in 20 years. Global markets are clearly skittish. The only thing that has
stopped asset prices falling further, perhaps, is the belief that escalating
market turmoil could push central banks into action – not just the ECB, but the
Bank of England and Federal Reserve, too. That’s why gold prices are firming up
once again. It’s also why the dollar index, typically inversely correlated with
investor risk appetite, has lately shown signs of reversal.... - Well, the week
past, brought worrying signs, though, that while the eurozone’s woes are not
easing, ongoing concerns about monetary union are now having an impact on
alternative growth centers, too, imposing real damage on commercial activity in
other parts of the globe.....There is no talk of firewalls, or of simply letting Spain go, or of the European banking system being re-capitalised to compensate for the losses that it would suffer. Nope. This is it. The cancer has now spread to the vital organs of the EU. Spain is not a peripheral Mediterranean country. It is not an insignificant player in the political project. It is not a marginal going-along-for-the-ride-and-the-free-money passenger on the euro train. Not only is its economy so large as to be indispensable, but its ties with Italy mean that the Italian economy (which is the third largest in the EU) would be fatally compromised by its fall. “Itexit” is almost unpronounceable, so perhaps it’s fortunate that it will never be required: after Spexit, there would be nothing left to exit from.