Showing posts with label BCE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCE. Show all posts

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Finland and Russia. Well Finland is the only EU member nation to border Russia and not be a NATO member. I suspect they are wary of Russia but have a greater understanding of Russia's somewhat justified paranoia and anger with broken ' influence space' NATO invasions since the 1990's. They seek the old USSR relationship probably which worked well for Finland. Your last sentence captures this.  BTW by many polls the most pro-EU Nordic - not members yet (and they were in the list with Denmark, UK and Ireland in the 1960's - is Norway. Following April's elections, Juha Sipila, the prime minister, Timo Soini, the eurosceptic foreign minister and Alexander Stubb, the finance minister, have pledged to create more jobs, to get the economy moving and avoid a "lost decade" from a lack of reforms.  Finland is out on its own compared to the other Nordic countries in joining the Euro. Norway isn't even in the EU, Sweden has done well keeping the Krona and Denmark has kept their Krona but ties it to the Euro, a tie that could easily be broken if the proverbial hits the fan. Finland is looking rather isolated. Of course the Baltic states are in the Euro but they have all paid a heavy price for membership.  Would I be right in thinking that Finland is being hurt by Russian retaliatory sanctions rather more than other countries? Whilst they must have an historical healthy fear of Russia, I would imagine they are far more scared about the West restarting the Cold war in extreme earnest because of western interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine.

Monday, October 28, 2013

FRANKFURT--The European Central Bank will force the euro zone's largest banks to set aside 8% of their risk-adjusted assets as a capital buffer, which will form one plank of the ECB's assessment of bank balance sheets next year, according to a person familiar with the matter. Euro-zone banks, which will be supervised by the ECB starting at the end of next year, will be required to hold a 7% capital buffer. The region's most significant banks will have to hold an additional percentage point, the person said. The buffers protect banks against losses they may take on loans and other assets. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
The target of 7% is in line with what a bank has to achieve under the new "Basel III" rules on capital in order to pay its dividends and bonuses without restrictions. However, it's lower than the 9% required by the capital exercise that the European Banking Authority carried out over 2011-2012. Theoretically, the new Basel standards don't come into force until 2018, but pressure from both regulators and financial markets has led most banks to report under the new standards already. The one percentage point surcharge for 'significant' banks echoes the Financial Stability Board's intention to impose a capital surcharge of up to 3.5 percentage points for Systemically Important Financial Institutions--also known as banks that are 'too big to fail.' The FSB will phase in these surcharges between 2016-2019. According to its latest assessments, Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.XE) would be liable to a surcharge of 2.5 percentage points, with a dozen other EU banks being subject to surcharges of between one and two percentage points. However, it isn't clear how the ECB will define its list of significant banks.
The ECB will release additional details on how it will handle its asset quality review at a press conference Wednesday. Europe's central bank will conduct the review in the first half of next year, before it takes on the role of bank supervisor. Currently, banks across the 17-member currency bloc are overseen by national regulators. The review is seen by most analysts as a critical part of efforts by European officials to address capital needs of banks, particularly in southern Europe, and to spur new lending to the private sector.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

"I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created."Romano Prodi, EU Commission President, 2001. The quote comes from a interview Prodi had with Martin Wolf of the Financial Times which was published on December 4th, 2001
Create a rainy day fund?
Look outside, its pouring down!
In a move that puts it on a collision course with Germany, the IMF discussion note said that at a minimum, deeper fiscal integration required increased policing of member states and the swift completion of a banking union with a "common backstop" for eurozone lenders.
The report, titled: Toward a fiscal union for the euro area, said forcing countries to endure repeated rounds of austerity to resolve future crises would plunge weaker countries into a deflation spiral and drag the whole region into a "prolonged period of stagnation."
It suggested that policymakers create a "rainy day fund", where governments contributed up to €200bn (£168bn) a year to help weaker countries "ex-ante", and avoid a systemic crisis.
The IMF economists also backed European Commission plans for a Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM), which would hand a powerful central executioner the power to wind down failing banks.
Germany has questioned the legality of the plans, which would hand sweeping powers to Brussels, while none of the 28 EU member states have explicitly backed them.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

GREECE - During the first seven months of 2013, the surplus reached €1.1bn (£921m), he said, adding this would enable the country to negotiate with its creditors, the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Greece has received massive rescue funding, tied to tough conditions, from the EU and the IMF to help it overcome a debt crisis which threatened the eurozone.
However, the a resulting structural reforms, including an overhaul of its public sector and its tax system, have proved unpopular.
On Saturday Samaras promised no further austerity measures would be introduced, saying the economy "cannot take" them any more.
"Debt levels will be manageable, Greece has respected its commitments... now, the creditors must also respect what was agreed," he added.
Protests in Thessaloniki, the country's second largest city, were organised by the private and public sector trade unions, GSEE and Adedy, who called for "fighting austerity and poverty".
Police said about 4,500 extra officers had been sent to the city to avert rioting during the four-hour demonstration.
The EU and the IMF recently praised the Greek government's progress in turning the economy around, but bemoaned delays to a programme of privatisation and reform, and the fact that the country will likely need further aid in 2014 and 2015 amounting to around €10bn.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

ECB - Troubled bank balance sheets ...

Troubled bank balance sheets had the potential to “choke the engine of recovery” in the 17-nation bloc, and “exert a more persistent drag on economic growth,” said Mr Coeuré, who sits on the executive board of the European Central Bank (ECB). Mr Coeuré said ailing banks had to be repaired or shut down. Failure to do so could result in a decade of stagnant growth in the eurozone, similar to Japan in the 1990s. He said the eurozone crisis risked creating a Japanese-style wave of “zombie banks” in which lenders, fearful of falling foul of capital rules, chose to “evergreen” - or roll over - bad loans instead of recognizing losses on their books. This had led to the “perverse” practice of banks extending credit to insolvent borrowers, rather than lend to creditworthy firms, said Mr Coeuré. Banks then “gambl[ed] on the hope that [firms] would recover or that the government would bail them out”. Mr Coeuré called on leaders to complete the steps needed to implement the eurozone’s banking union. He also said measures were needed to tackle youth unemployment...
Meanwhile, Olli Rehn, an incompetent idiot, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said the next tranche of Greece’s bail-out could be paid in installments amid growing frustration with Athens’ slow pace of reform.
“It is possible, but not certain,” Mr Rehn said on Friday. “It all depends on whether Greece can meet all requirements that they are committed to.”  A separate report by the European Commission and the ECB showed that Spain’s troubled lenders did not need further taxpayer support. The eurozone’s fourth largest economy has so far received €41.3bn to recapitalize its banks....
German politicians have been vocal in their opposition to the EU Commission's plans for a single bank resolution authority, concerned that it could override a national decision on how to deal with a struggling bank. Yesterday finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that the plans could require treaty change. I would strongly ask the commission in its proposal for a [single resolution mechanism] to be very careful, and to stick to the limited interpretation of the given treaty.  We have to stick to the given legal basis, as otherwise we risk major turbulence.  More on the plans for the so-called "single resolution mechanism" to be proposed by the EU Commission today.  If plans go ahead at the planned pace, a new agency within the European Central Bank will be in charge of the wind-down or rescue of failed banks by 2015. The eventual aim is for the ECB to draw from a common multibillion euro fund, supplied by eurozone banks. However, since it will take years to accumulate the €60bn needed for a bank resolution fund, it will be limited to overseeing national-level bank bail-outs to begin with.


 

Saturday, June 29, 2013

The Wall Street Journal flags up that weaker euro-zone governments would be able to borrow from the currency union's rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, to top up their own backstops. But it won't be easy: Taxpayer-funded bailouts will only be allowed under "extraordinary circumstances," when it is technically impossible to impose losses on certain creditors in a rush or when a government is worried about effects on financial stability, officials said. Such exceptions will have to be authorized by the European Commission, the EU's executive arm. Rich countries like Germany and Finland worked hard to make it as difficult as possible for poorer countries to tap the euro-zone rescue fund. Ministers agreed that the common fund could eventually be used to recapitalize failing banks directly, but only to protect depositors—not shareholders or bondholders—and if the bank's home government has run out of money. Speaking to reporters after the deal was agreed, Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem argued it was a significant step forward: If a bank gets in trouble we will now, throughout Europe, have one set of rules on who pays the bill," he said. "The financial sector itself will now to a very, very large extent become responsible for dealing with its own problems. Dijsselbloem had been heavily criticised a few months ago for indicating that the Cyprus bailout (which forced massive losses on some large depositors) was a template for future rescue deals. He backtracked on the comments, but this deal confirms that the Cypriot experience could be repeated across the continent. And German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble confirmed this point, telling reporters: They can affect German savers just as well as they can affect any other investor in the world. France's Pierre Moscovici told the press pack that Europe's bailout fund could still be used for bank rescues (after creditors have been hit). Reuters got the quotes: French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici signalled that ministers also agreed to French demands that the euro zone's rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, can be used to help banks in the 17-nation currency area that run into trouble. It makes the whole thing coherent," said Moscovici. "It creates a solidity for the system and a system of solidarity.

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Eurozone crisis hits development funds - The eurozone crisis is having far-reaching effects, not least on the aid being sent to the developing world. Deep cuts in aid budgets by crisis-stricken euro zone countries have prompted the biggest fall in development assistance to the world’s poorest nations since the mid-1990s. Sharp drops in spending by Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal resulted in a 4% decline in financial assistance to the developing world in 2012, according to the annual assessment conducted by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD, a club for 33 rich nations, said it was concerned by the decline, which it blamed on the austerity programmes forced on many euro zone countries over the past three years. After a 2% drop in 2011, the decline in 2012 was the biggest in 15 years and was the first back-to-back drop in development assistance since 1996-97 - the years immediately before the mass public campaigns in the West for debt relief and increased development assistance.
Over to Italy, where the treasury has cut its growth expectations, just two weeks after the last forecasts. Treasury undersecretary Gianfranco Polillo said the economy is likely to contract by 1.5% and 1.6% this year. Speaking to Radio 24, he said: This year we will see a fall in gross domestic product of 1.3% if things go well, but it will probably be -1.5% or -1.6%. The currency bloc's third largest economy has shrunk for six consecutive quarters, its longest recession in 20 years. Mario Monti's outgoing government slashed this year's forecast to -1.3% last moth from its previous estimate of -0.2%.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

‘The mystery of Mario Draghi the Invisible Man is more disturbing in some ways. I posted about Schäuble briefing bigtime against him the week before last, and I now think it boils down to two serious possibilities. The first is that Berlin has somehow neutralised the ECB boss, and told him to stay out of public eye and leave it to them. If so, he has managed very well to be AWOL during a classic Brussels-am-Berlin cock-up. But even as the ECB demanded a Nicosia decision by Monday and then demanded more money after the Moscow talks broke down, SuperMario was nowhere to be seen. That is odd.
The second possibility – and one I increasingly favour – is that from the outset Mario Draghi saw Cyprus as a distraction, no more: he knows that via his control over the banking purse-strings, he can bring the island to its knees any time he likes. Either he knew (or guessed) that the Berlin mentality would jackboot into the situation and use it as a test-case for (a) future events where threats are felt to be necessary and (b) setting the precedent for State theft of depositor funds under the guise of bollocks like Open Bank Recontruction (OBR) or fantasy ‘levies’. Of course, he would prefer to be away from that grubby operation, but I return to the key word here – distraction: Germany’s aim is control; Draghi’s aim is the survival of the euro, whatever it might cost. The two need not be the same, and in the long term probably won’t be….Personally, I suspect what he plans to do adds up to yet another form of citizen pauperisation alongside the bank robbery approach…. in Frankfurt, Marketwatch opined as follows: ‘the precedents set by the Cyprus deal have undermined the euro in a very important way. The imposition of capital controls–a euro-zone first–now means that a euro held in a Cypriot bank account can’t be moved, withdrawn or even spent with the same ease as a euro held in a bank account in Germany, France or anywhere else in the 17-nation eurozone. Simply put, a “Cypriot euro” is worth less than a euro held in a bank account anywhere else".
The whole idea of EMU a nonsense: it is, in fact, the beginning of the end of EMU. In a client note after the true level of Cyprus haircut was announced, Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos wrote, ‘Economic and monetary union across the entire euro zone no longer exists. Even though [Cyprus] is very small, policy makers’ willingness to suspend cross-border euro convertibility is a meaningfully negative signal for the euro zone.’ The economics boffins at Nomura concurred: ‘Common currency, by definition, means that a euro in country A is equivalent to a euro in country B’ they wrote. UBS Head of Global Economics Paul Donovan told CNBC, “If you impose capital controls, effectively, the monetary union is dead.”. And perhaps most chilling of all, David Mann, Regional Head of Research for the Americas at Standard Chartered Bank says, “There is no point in anyone claiming they know what’s coming next. It’s [capital controls] gone from something hardly mentioned a week ago to something that is being taken absolutely seriously enough to be running into a real scenario. But it has to be instant. Bank runs can literally be electronic — they happen at a touch of the button.”

Saturday, March 30, 2013

'Disastrous' and 'unbelievable' are the words which spring to mind!

The EU has now shown that it is not simply a fraudulent organisation (audits not signed for 16 years) but a criminal one. Expropriating funds deposited in banks is no better than daylight robbery.
The lesson or ALL is to quit this organization without further delay.....Under an arrangement expected to be announced on Saturday, depositors in Bank of Cyprus will receive shares in the lender worth 37.5pc of any savings over €100,000, while the rest may never be paid back, according to Reuters, citing a source with direct knowledge of the terms. Of the 62.5pc of uninsured deposits not converted to bank shares, about 40pc will continue to accrue interest but will not be repaid unless the bank does well, while the final 22.5pc will cease to attract interest, the source told Reuters. Government figures, including finance minister Michalis Sarris and central bank governor Panicos Demetriades, had previously indicated that depositors in the island's largest lender would lose around 40pc of their uninsured savings as part of an 11th hour agreement reached in Brussels in the early hours of Monday. Meanwhile, account holders in Laiki Bank, the country's second largest, stand to lose up to 80pc of their money as the lender is wound down and insured deposits transferred to Bank of Cyprus. The harsher-than-expected terms on the Bank of Cyprus' largest depositors will provoke further anger among Cypriots, who face sharp economic decline with the contraction of their dominant banking sector. The most irritating thing about this whole tragic saga is the constant use of the euphemism 'haircut'. Theft is theft pure and simple. Theft is, and always has been a serious criminal offence; anyone found guilty of it should be properly punished for their crime. When we start trying to dilute the meaning of it and pretend to mitigate the affects of it we seriously jeopardize our morality as human beings. Perhaps rape will soon be described as undesired sex, and murder as a premature termination etc, etc.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Hundreds of protesters massed outside the floodlit presidential palace in Nicosia late yesterday, shouting for the bailout “troika” of the EU, European Central Bank and IMF to leave Cyprus, a country of 862,000 people.
The streets in Nicosia were quieter today because of a national holiday to celebrate Greek independence, with school children parading to the Greek embassy. Lines remained at Popular Bank’s cash machines after the daily limit was lowered to 100 euros yesterday from 260 euros.
Anastasiades was running out of options after failing to get help from the Russians, whose holdings in Cypriot banks Moody’s Investors Service estimated at $31 billion.
The deal imposes losses that two EU officials said would be no more than 40 percent on uninsured depositors at Bank of Cyprus Plc, the largest bank, which will take over the viable assets of Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) as it’s wound down.
“I’m not happy with the agreement because it will be a destroyer for the Cyprus economy,” said Yannis Emmanouilidis, 50, a chemist. “Because if our bank system is destroyed, the whole economy will be destroyed.”
Bank assets in Cyprus swelled to 126.4 billion euros at the end of January, seven times the size of the 18 billion-euro economy, from 78 billion euros in 2007, data from the ECB and the EU’s statistics office show.
Emmanouilidis said he has an account at Popular Bank, or Laiki in Greek, and is thinking about withdrawing his money, though he doesn’t want to exacerbate the economic problems.
If he does, he will have to wait. Banks in Cyprus, which have been shut for the past week, remain closed and lawmakers voted last week to impose capital controls to prevent a run on deposits when they reopen.
“Maybe we won’t have the right to take out our money,” Emmanouilidis said. “This is a free market and the banks won’t let us take our money out? This is amazing in a democracy of the European Union.”

Monday, March 25, 2013

Angela Merkel said last year, if The Euro collapsed "there might not be peace in Europe in sixty years"....Sounds like a threat...The Germans are sending out a clear message. Get your finances in order if you want to be treated as a Eurozone member. There can be no sound money unless and until all the member states of the Eurozone play by German rules. Cyprus are disposable when it comes to German exports.
Strange how they didn't send out that message so clearly fifteen years ago when Kohl rejected economic advice and insisted that Italy must be allowed to join the euro on political grounds.
"Operation Self-Deceit: New Documents Shine Light on Euro Birth Defects  Newly revealed German government documents reveal that many in Helmut Kohl's Chancellery had deep doubts about a European common currency when it was introduced in 1998. First and foremost, experts pointed to Italy as being the euro's weak link." Well....
The eu allowed countries to break the entry conditions of joining the EZ. They then allowed countires to break the ficsal stability pact that was suppoed to hold everyone together. Germany were the first to break the deal, so you cant blame the med countries from realising that the rules do not apply.
I do not support the incompetatance theory. The EU knew exactly what it was doing. By providing enough rope the smaller weaker countries have been allowed to hang themselves. If there was any real motive to have all the EZ countries performing the EU would and should have stepped in long before the situation became serious. They had the law in the terms of the treaties to force the med countries to comply, but did not take any action. They are complicit in problem that these countries face and are now taking advantage to destroy competition and asset strip where they can.
Meanwhile : The central bank in Cyprus imposed a €100 a day withdrawal limit at cash machines for all local banks on Sunday to avert a run on lenders, as the island's leaders meet its international lenders for last-ditch talks to avert a financial meltdown.

Friday, February 1, 2013

The current global economic slowdown cannot be blamed solely on the EU, but the mechanisms and strictures now in play for countries whose traditional strategy when in a crisis was to devalue and rebuild simply do not make sense. It is both unconstitutional and simply applying the most superficial of sticking plaster to imagine that you can put off the inevitable by offering a few well-meant but ultimately short-term guarantees - which are ultimately going to be unacceptable - if continued (which is inevitable) to the various Constitutional Courts in Member States, not to mention against the Lisbon Treaty.
The Eurozone crisis has a lot to do with a bureaucratic, technocratic machinery running aground when the proactive market participants start addressing the various - and major disparities in the economies under the same trading bloc. Rather than create a sensible way out for countries with huge youth unemployment issues, suffering under severe austerity, they are forcing Europeans to carry on unabated.  There is no central tax revenue collection or coherence in this vastly diversified trading area, and sovereign authority is, at best, paid lip service to when countries have to make tough decisions. There is scope for an entrepreneurial and proactive trading bloc, but not on these terms. As countries struggle under the weight of market pressures, the last thing they need is fewer options. Which is exactly what the EU is giving them. Just ask Iceland - now pushing out healthy GDP growth figures after their own economic crisis of a few years ago. The EU is simply not responsive enough to market demands to be a credible single currency zone. And its southern Member states are paying a heavy price for its inflexibility and blindness to proactive. With an ex-Communist in charge - is anyone truly surprised? I still think the EU can be made to work, but fear with the current incumbents that it is too late to wind back the clock and get the trading area to function effectively.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

In a short televised speech, the Dutch Queen said it was time to place the nation “in the hands of a new generation”.
Queen Beatrix turns 75 in just a few days and is already the country’s oldest ever monarch. Both her mother, Queen Julianna, and her grandmother, Queen Wilhelmina, also abdicated and the Dutch do not see being king or queen as a job for life.
“I am not abdicating because this office is too much of a burden, but out of conviction that the responsibility for our nation should now rest in the hands of a new generation,” Queen Beatrix said, in a speech delivered from her Huis ten Bosch palace.
“I am deeply grateful for the great faith you have shown in me in the many years that I could be your Queen,” she added.
The Dutch Queen praised her eldest son, Prince Willem-Alexander, as a talented and capable successor 'fully prepared’ for his future role. As a history buff I can tell you that when Germany invaded the Netherlands in WW2 the Dutch Royal family fled to England under the sanctuary of the British King George VI and his Parliament and were safely tucked away in Ottawa Canada for the duration of the war and until all the nastiness was over.
Unlike the British Royal Family who were duty bound to remain in Britain throughout the Blitz and the threat of invasion.
The Netherlands were liberated by British and Canadian troops
in 1945 and since the Germans let the Dutch citizens starve sooner than capitulate or surrender the Allies even airlifted much food stuffs to the starving Dutch. Since the Dutch are considered Volks to the very similar Germans there was much collaboration with many Dutch who welcomed Hitler and there was not very much resistance at all until after the June Allied landing in 1944.
The Allies were prompt to bring this Dutch Royal Family and reinstate them and return to status quo and use this Royal group as a rallying point should the Russians rumble across Western Europe or worse scenario the starving Dutch might go Communist,so let`s rebuild with the Marshall Plan-shrewd and clever how Capitalism works.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel has been left red-faced after shaking hands with world leaders on a rug looted by Hitler's second-in-command Hermann Goering.

The rug is part of more than 2,000 items looted by the leading Nazi, who killed himself after being sentenced to the death penalty at the Nuremberg Trials in 1946.
An investigation by journalists working for news magazine Der Spiegel revealed the true history of the Persian rug, which has caused embarrassment for the German leader.  Mrs Merkel is preparing to make her third bid for power this Autumn, and is said to be furious with her aides over the revelations .  It is understood the rug will be removed from view by the end of the week.   The former state minister for culture Michael Naumann has now urged the government to force the return of Nazi looted items to their rightful owners or their heirs.
"The legislature must concretise their return," he said. "More money must also be used for research in German museums."    The timing of the revelation is even more embarrassing as it comes hours after Holocaust Memorial Day, held on Sunday January 27..... In a podcast on her website, Mrs Merket said: "Naturally, we have an everlasting responsibility for the crimes of national-socialism, for the victims of World War II, and above all, for the Holocaust.
We’re facing our history, we’re not hiding anything, we’re not repressing anything. We must confront this to make sure we are a good and trustworthy partner in the future, as we already are today, thankfully."It is unclear how another Goering carpet ended up in the chancellor's office in Berlin.  The West German government in 1966 declared the task of reuniting owners with their stolen property to be 'concluded.'
But tapestry from the same collection as the rug in Mrs Merkel's office adorns the walls of a government guest house on the outskirts of Bonn.


Saturday, August 11, 2012

Germany's main opposition, the Social Democrats, have upped the ante, saying that Chancellor Angela Merkel must assume greater risks to avert a breakup of the single currency.
Bloomberg has a report on an interview the SPD floor leader, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, gave to the Rheinische Post newspaper.
He raised the pressure on Mrs Merkel to agree to more burden-sharing to stem the euro crisis, claiming that Mrs Merkel, while rejecting euro-region bond sales, fails to say that Germany is already exposed to losses from the debt crisis through the European Central Bank’s bond purchases:
The government should finally be honest about it to the people. If we want to prevent the breakup of the euro zone, it won’t be without risks for Germany.....I have been following the EU. crisis for the last three years and the Muppets in Brussels still have no idea what to do. It gives me no confidence at all in our leaders in Brussels. The numpties in Westminster are not too bright but they beat the nutters in Brussels and Strasbourg hands down.
From debt crisis to food crisis. The UN's food agency has warned today that the world could face a food crisis like that of 2007/08 if countries restruct exports on concerns about a drought-fuelled grain price rally. In its latest update, the Food and Agriculture Organisation said its food price index climbed 6pc last month, after three months of decline, driven by a surge in grain and sugar prices.
Anxieties over extreme hot and dry weather in the US Midwest sent corn and soybean prices to record highs last month, driving overall food prices higher.  Grain markets have also been boosted recently by speculation that Black Sea grain producers, particularly Russia, might impose export restrictions after a drought there hit crops.
The FAO's senior economist and grain analyst Abdolreza Abbassian told ReutersThere is an expectation that this time around we will not pursue bad policies and intervene in the market by restrictions, and if that doesn't happen we will not see such a serious situation as 2007/08. But if those policies get repeated, anything is possible.

Saturday, August 4, 2012

I bet even the IMF has no idea how much the game is going to change.

President Mario Draghi admitted his eurozone rescue plan was a work in progress. ... First there was light at the end of the tunnel - now there is just work in progress meaning that they are thinking of trying to locate where they are in the tunnel but they haven't got a clue what to do. Euro is just a shamble the biggest political failure of all times, the biggest wealth destroyer the humanity has ever known. Congratulations to the europhiles for making the world a poorer place. You're in a big hole and you're still digging.... There is a need for the europhiles for an apology for all the misery they piled onto the people and start urgent negotiations on how to get rid of the euro. We will forget all your sins. It is up to you to put your hands up and say sorry. wELL :The elephant in the room is losing it's grip on the ceiling light flex? Stand by for the mass stampede through doors and windows and walls. The IMF is as informed as manuel as to the whole picture, the truth is nobody can know the extent of the desolation bankers and financial whizzkids have visited upon us and anyone who can be convinced otherwise has little appreciation of the shortcomings of human nature. It's likely that from top to bottom they were all behaving with the mindset of the shoplifters during the riots, driven mad in their bonus rush, many also under the influence of cocaine?
Over four years some of the known truth has been drip fed out, it's rumsfeldt's unknown unknowns (as it were) that will lock in the longest depression yet, as we especially seem stuck with the present establishment using the austerity argument totally dishonestly for dogmatic gains and repression.... I SAY :
The economic shock from the eurozone crisis has not yet hit said the IMF- AND That's because it ISN'T a "eurozone crisis", it's a crisis of western consumer 'growth' capitalism, mainly caused by a bubble stoked by profligate bank lending activities, reckless and stupid corporate borrowing and a disastrous corporate 'globalisation' process which saw the biggest transfer of wealth across the globe in human history - oh, and diminishing conventional oil reserves.
Top bankers messed up, top business leaders gave away the wealth of the west for short term profit and dumb politicians didn't understand what was going on. Those that did, were easily 'persuaded'.  They're all sliding down the mountain side, using ice picks for brakes but kicking the Eurozone ahead of themselves, so that they have someone to blame....it called for a "policy game changer"
I bet even the IMF has no idea how much the game is going to change.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

As the Eurocrats toy with “Grexit”, Spain is trying to plug holes in regional budgets

If the World goes into a nose dive there will still be top dog countries or safer heavens. The time to worry is when people start to starve then civil war breaks out. AS long as they can keep bellies full then civil unrest will be held at bay.
Back in the 1970s, the eurozone economies, then among the most dynamic on earth, generated 20pc of global growth. Over the past decade, this growth share has fallen to 5pc. Yet the single currency area still accounts for more than a fifth of the global economy. More fundamentally, the region’s banking sector is so distressed, and many of its governments so close to insolvency, that “eurogeddon” could spark a worldwide shockwave every bit as damaging as Lehman. And this time, of course, there is far less scope for fiscal and monetary bail-outs – not only in Europe, but in the US and elsewhere, too. Of course, the UK, already in recession and reliant on the eurozone to buy more than half its exports, is among the most seriously exposed. In May, Britain’s manufacturing PMI index nosedive to 45.9, the weakest reading since May 2009, down from 50.2 the month before. This marked the second biggest one-month drop in 20 years. Global markets are clearly skittish. The only thing that has stopped asset prices falling further, perhaps, is the belief that escalating market turmoil could push central banks into action – not just the ECB, but the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, too. That’s why gold prices are firming up once again. It’s also why the dollar index, typically inversely correlated with investor risk appetite, has lately shown signs of reversal.... - Well, the week past, brought worrying signs, though, that while the eurozone’s woes are not easing, ongoing concerns about monetary union are now having an impact on alternative growth centers, too, imposing real damage on commercial activity in other parts of the globe.....There is no talk of firewalls, or of simply letting Spain go, or of the European banking system being re-capitalised to compensate for the losses that it would suffer. Nope. This is it. The cancer has now spread to the vital organs of the EU. Spain is not a peripheral Mediterranean country. It is not an insignificant player in the political project. It is not a marginal going-along-for-the-ride-and-the-free-money passenger on the euro train. Not only is its economy so large as to be indispensable, but its ties with Italy mean that the Italian economy (which is the third largest in the EU) would be fatally compromised by its fall. “Itexit” is almost unpronounceable, so perhaps it’s fortunate that it will never be required: after Spexit, there would be nothing left to exit from.

Friday, May 13, 2011

With unemployment officially nudging 790,000 – although believed to be far bigger with the closure of some 150,000 small and medium-sized businesses over the past year – there are fears that Greece, the country at the centre of Europe's worst financial debacle in decades, is slipping inexorably into political and social crisis, too. Rising racist tensions and lawlessness on the streets this week spurred the soft-spoken mayor of Athens, Giorgos Kaminis, to describe the city as "beginning to resemble Beirut".With unemployment officially nudging 790,000 – although believed to be far bigger with the closure of some 150,000 small and medium-sized businesses over the past year – there are fears that Greece, the country at the centre of Europe's worst financial debacle in decades, is slipping inexorably into political and social crisis, too. Rising racist tensions and lawlessness on the streets this week spurred the soft-spoken mayor of Athens, Giorgos Kaminis, to describe the city as "beginning to resemble Beirut".

Thursday, February 24, 2011

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Italy has been forced to shut down the Greenstream pipeline from Libya, losing 13 percent of its daily gas imports. But regional experts warn worse is to come. The Greenstream move on Tuesday (22 February) was made due to safety concerns for Italian energy firm ENI's Libya-based workers, which help to operate the 520-km-long pipeline out of the Libyan port of Mellitah to Gela in Sicily. Italy's economic development minister Paolo Romani told reporters Rome will hold a crisis meeting on Wednesday but said there is no risk of energy shortages. ENI said it can draw on extra supplies from Algeria, Norway and Russia. A European Commission spokeswoman added: "There's a lot of gas on the market ... There is enough gas to supply to households and also to companies." Several other energy companies, including BP, Repsol, Shell and the Netherlands' Royal Bam, are also making arrangements to get their workers out of Libya. Spain is the only other EU consumer of Libyan gas. But the EU is more heavily dependent on Libyan oil. The Paris-based International Energy Association says Libyan oil in 2010 accounted for over 20 percent of imports to Austria, Ireland and Italy, around 15 percent to France and Greece, over 10 percent to Spain and Portugal and around 8 percent to Germany and the UK.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

ATHENS—Greece was paralyzed by a nationwide general strike Wednesday as hundreds of thousands of workers, shopkeepers and civil servants walked off the job in a 24-hour protest over the government's austerity program. The strike affected public services, with government ministries, local government offices, courts and schools all closed, and hospitals and many state-owned enterprises running with reduced staff. Mass transit around the capital ground to a halt as bus, trolley, tram and subway operations were suspended, and Athens's electric rail operated on a reduced schedule. More than four dozen domestic flights were canceled ahead of a four-hour walkout by air traffic controllers, and ferry operations to Greece's islands were also suspended. "The austerity measures are beginning to affect all of society even more now. The economic situation is becoming very difficult for both Greek businesses and for workers," said Anthony Livanios, an independent political economist and commentator. "Even so, the government appears determined to continue with its policies." Recent public opinion polls showed seven out of ten Greeks expect the austerity program to continue even beyond 2013 when the current bailout deal with the EU and IMF ends. The ruling Socialists have seen their popularity drop sharply in the past year, although they still retain a 3.5 percentage-point lead over the center-right opposition.