Showing posts with label http://www.eucouncilfiles.eu/. Show all posts
Showing posts with label http://www.eucouncilfiles.eu/. Show all posts

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Germans don't want to be Greeks; Greeks don't want to be Germans.

The NEWS... Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Euro Group, has released a statement following the EU finance ministers conference call.... He says substantial progress on Greece has been made and is confident decisions will be made at a Euro Group meeting on Monday. Greece's Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos says his country has met all prior actions with the Euro Group and all the issues on 2012s €325m fiscal gap have been decided. He adds that those arguing for a Greek euro exit do a disservice, and hopes for a plan on Monday, including debt swap. However, he says some technical issues are still to be resolved. Venizelos says implementation of bail-out plan depends on the country's two main parties. The full statement for Jean-Claude Juncker reads: As announced yesterday, I convened the Eurogroup to a conference call today in order to discuss the outstanding issues regarding the second adjustment programme for Greece. Substantial further progress has been made since yesterday. "First, we received the strong assurances provided by the leaders of the two coalition parties in Greece's government. Second, the Troika finalized and presented its analysis on the sustainability of Greece's public debt. Third, further technical work between Greece and the Troika has led to the identification of the required additional consolidation measures of €325m and the establishment of a detailed list of prior actions together with a timeline for their implementation. "Further considerations are necessary regarding the specific mechanisms to strengthen the surveillance of programme implementation and to ensure that priority is given to debt servicing. This will strengthen debt sustainability further. "On the basis of the elements that are currently on the table and the above-mentioned additional input, I am confident that the Eurogroup will be able to take all the necessary decisions on Monday 20 February. "I am confident that the Euro Group will be able to take all the necessary decisions on Monday," he said. The troika has finalised and presented its Greek debt report and has received strong assurances from Greek political leaders. Juncker says "further considerations are needed on specifics", and European finance minsiters see a need for stronger surveillance of Greece.

Several comments ...:
- Greece agrees to all conditions
- 70% Haircut issue 'fudged' (IMF/ECB secretly bail them out)
- Bailout given to Greece
- Greece pays debts due 20 March 2012
- April Elections in Greece
- New Greek Gov breaks all promises and blames past Gov
- New Bailout required for next debt(s)
- EU issues new conditions for NEXT bailout
- Repeat ad nauseum until Greece finally goes Bankrupt in 2013

The Heart of problem: Germans don't want to be Greeks; Greeks don't want to be Germans. The Greek default is coming, the rest of the Eurozone is merely buying time to shore up their capital reserves so they can bail out the Greek debt being carried by their own financial institutions. In the long run, it'll probably be cheaper than continually topping up the Bail Out fund.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

European Union negotiators have yet to settle key elements of a complex bailout and debt-restructuring package for Greece

Tomorrow's meeting to discuss the second Greek bail-out has been called off amid accusations that a top politician in the debt-stricken country has failed to sign off agreed austerity measures....Tomorrow, Samaras is expected to deliver a letter agreeing to adhere to the Troika (German) plan. And pigs may fly!

Which will it be:

1.- The letter does not arrive in time (lost in the mail)
2.- A further letter is dispatched but to the wrong address
3.- The letter arrives but is ambiguous and is rejected by the EU - (my most likely outcome)
I think the letter is not ever written but there is enough talk about it for the can to travel down the road for another day......
The head of the eurozone countries has downgraded an eurozone finance ministers meeting on Wednesday, saying Greece has not yet given the necessary assurances about its austerity plan. Ministers, who had demanded Greece find an extra 325m euros of savings, had been set to meet in Brussels. But Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said the talks would be replaced by a conference call. He said technical work with Greece was still needed "in a number of areas". .... Finance ministers had not received assurances from leaders of Greek political parties on a programme of proposed cuts, Mr Juncker was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency. He said that "against this background, I have decided to convene ministers to a conference call tomorrow in order to discuss the outstanding issues". There is pressure on Greece to make progress, as the country will not be able to pay debts due on 20 March unless it can qualify for more bailout funds by satisfying its European partners. By that date Greece needs to repay 14.5bn euros to lenders. When and if eurozone ministers are convinced Greece is making progress on cuts, and if the German parliament agrees to the bailout (as it must under national law), then any new bailout could be signed off in early March. Meanwhile, an official report on Tuesday showed that the decline of the Greek economy accelerated in the final three months of 2011.

Monday, February 13, 2012

IT'S OVER, GREECE FELL UNDER THE GERMAN BOOT - Democracy ended where it started - The IV Reich is upon EUROPE NOW!!!

IT'S OVER THIS MORNING ...GREECE FELL UNDER THE GERMAN BOOT ...the IVth. Reich recorded it's first victim - Greek MPs pass an unpopular austerity bill crucial for a 130bn euro ($170bn; £110bn) bailout, as protesters clash with police outside parliament.---The eurozone bloc (Germany in fact) wants a further 325m euros in savings for this year and also insists that Greek leaders give "strong political assurances" on the implementation of the packages. Greece cannot service its huge debt, and there are fears that a default could endanger Europe's financial stability and even lead to a break-up of the eurozone. But many Greeks feel they are already squeezed almost to breaking point and cannot take any more cuts, our correspondent says. Some are even saying Greece should leave the eurozone to be able to devalue its former currency, the drachma, and ease the debt stranglehold. Are you in Greece? Have you been protesting in Athens? What is your reaction to the austerity plan? You can send us your views and experiences using the comments link - I than you for that!

The Germans seem to be coming around to the idea of jettisoning the Greeks, but unless they can isolate that country, the whole house of cards will come down. If that happens, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and maybe Spain will renege on their debts, and the Germans will find themselves bailing out their own banks for a change. They'll also assume a share of the ECB liabilities currently being created, and their state will be as indebted as any other. There's a German word for how the rest of us will feel when that happens, but I can't spell it. ..... "Germany may, however, decide that the moral of this story is that it is suffering too high a price for keeping the single currency together – and that the stragglers need to be cut loose, perhaps once the French presidential election is over". Don't count on it. Germany will fight this to the bitter end, even if it means the ultimate financial ruin of their country. Unless Germany changes direction soon, and makes moves to pull out of the Euro soon, irrespective of the howls of horror from the French, Germany could soon be on the road to the break up of Germany itself into its 16 Lander. Merkel must have been told a million times to put Germany's self interest first, but once she gets into the company of French politicians in the Elysee, her logical mind goes to pieces.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

I don't...I wouldn't...I do...but...

I don't have a problem with the Greeks borrowing money at a rate and amount that two hundred years of their grandchildren would never be able to repay....I don't have a problem with the Greeks not collecting taxes to fund their nation. I wouldn't have a problem with the retirement age for Greeks being 24 years of age with a pension double the UK average wage (so long as it is Greece alone which is funding it). I don't have a problem with the EU for intentionally stripping each and every vestige of legitimate democracy from any nation idiotic enough to take its lies and deceit. I don't have a problem with the undeniable fact that the EU is - de facto - creating extremism across the continent by means of its own misplaced and malign grandiloquence. I don't have a problem with the possibility that those nations in such severe debt have recently been nations under dictatorship and military rule, and that such a status might once again shortly become incumbent within those borders. I do have a problem with the Government of my own nation being complicit in the practice, and that Government withholding any facet of input into the phenomenon from the electorate. I do have a problem with the Government of my own country pretending that everything is rosy in the garden, and that stripping just a wee bit more wealth from its electorate to throw into the bottomless Euro pit will improve its image among self-satisfied EU leaders at the next well-victualled continental jamboree. I do have a problem with the prostrate supplicants who worship at the altar of the EU, and the ignoramuses who justify the ambivalence of the UK political party tribes insulting those who rail against these practices as being racist xenophobes. I do have a problem in being compelled to fund, by compulsorily extracted taxation, the levers by which the entire disaster will be choreographed. I don't understand why the gutless drones who staff the major parties in Parliament have no problem dropping undefined future generations into limitless penury - at the whim of effete party leaders incapable of rational thought. Maybe in two hundred years time, someone might be able to piece it all together.....But it will be too bloody late then.

Friday, February 10, 2012

What amounts to a referendum on euro membership will be held in Greece this weekend as the parliament there votes on the austerity measures agreed by the country's leading politicians yesterday. Hopes the package of cuts and other austerity measures would be enough to persuade European finance ministers to release a new tranche of financial aid to meet the country's next debt repayment were dashed over night. Instead, eurozone politicians refused to make the €130bn payment until the new cuts had been passed into law by the Greek MPs, effectively holding a gun to the country's legislative. Europe also wants another €300m plus of cuts and a promise reforms won't be unwound after elections. Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, summed up the hardline stance of eurozone leaders fed up with Greece's failure to deliver on fiscal reforms. "In short: no disbursement without implementation," he insisted. So with a second general strike planned today in Athens in opposition to the cuts in wages, pensions and state spending, it's going to be another frantic few days in the eurozone crisis. Greece is well established on the road to a disorderly default and is playing a game of chicken with eurozone leaders over whether they will be willing to see Greece leave the euro. The emerging sense is that, actually, Germany and France would be willing to see Greece exit (and Portugal for that matter) so they could circle the wagons around Italy.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Greek unions and employers' associations have blocked a critical element of a rescue deal put forward by the European Union, accusing negotiators of crippling the economy with wage cuts and tax rises that will undermine growth. In a joint letter to the Greek prime minister, Lucas Papademos, the employers and unions said a cut in the minimum wage was non-negotiable and the focus of talks should switch to the tax system, the complexity of regulation and corruption. Athens is under pressure to wrap up talks on a bond swap and a €130bn (£108bn) bailout to avert a chaotic default. But hopes of an imminent deal faded after eurozone finance ministers put off a meeting expected on Monday to finalise the rescue. The ministers may meet later next week instead, said its head, Jean-Claude Juncker. The unions' and employers' statement undermined efforts by the coalition government to agree a package of reforms as demanded by the country's international lenders if Athens is to receive the crucial €130bn second rescue package. The three main parties in the coalition will meet on Saturday to discuss the situation, though sources close to the talks said a quick resolution was unlikely. The refusal of unions to accept further wage cuts and the discovery earlier in the week of an extra €15bn hole in Athens's accounts are expected to force negotiators to rethink their tactics over the weekend. The troika of officials from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and EU want Greece to agree a package of spending cuts and reforms before they release the fresh €130bn of funds.



MEANWHILE :


Snow and ice hits Britain as Europe freezes over Heavy snow and ice has raised fears of transport chaos on Sunday, with hundreds of flights cancelled and disruption expected on the roads.At Heathrow 350 flights - a third of today's total - were called off on Saturday even before the forecast snow began, while Gatwick also warned it could have to cancel services. The Met Office predicted up to six inches of snow and ice would fall overnight and early this morning, with temperatures falling to 10.4 Fahrenheit (-12C) and windchill making it feel significantly colder. It urged people to be prepared for heavy snowfalls.

Monday, January 30, 2012

The Summit = "the hot air baloon"

Summit finished - WHAT A JOKE !! WHAT A PILE OF B.S !!! - So, Sarkozy is off to Paris, turning his attention no doubt to other worries, like fighting an election. The big thing to come from his statement is that a deal on new balanced budget rules has been signed. By everyone except the UK and the Czech Republic, that is. So it's a treaty of 25... Sarkozy added that it would be unreasonable to put Greece in "wardenship", where all of its budget decisions must be given the OK by Germany and/or France. He's been asked if the treaty will be ratified in France before the election. He points out that during an election the Parliament doesn't sit, so it could be tricky. Sarkozy hopes for a deal on Greek debt, which he describes as a "thorn in our side", within days - but points out that it wasn't the aim of this meeting. We've gone to questions already. He sounds like a teacher, criticising the press pack because the same journalists always put their hands up first. First up is a question about why the Czech Republic felt it couldn't sign the treaty: The Czech PM told us that for constitutional reasons he did not feel he could accede to that future treaty. I'm not sufficiently familiar with the ins and outs of what's going on in Prague to understand why what was acceptable in December is not acceptable now. It will be a treaty among 25.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

GREECE ALREADY HAS A GERMAN GOVERNOR : Horst Rauchenbach is the governor since oct. 2011....

IIF chief executive, Charles Dallara, met the Greek Prime Minister, Lucas Papademos, for the third time in three days on Saturday to continue discussing the deal. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, Mr Papademos said he was still confident. "We made significant progress over the last few weeks and in the last few days in particular," he said. "We are trying to conclude the discussions as quickly as possible. I am quite optimistic an agreement will be reached in the coming days." Sources close to the negotiations said that pressure from the "troika" of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union group of ministers was now the main reason a deal has not been signed. IN CONCLUSION : The EU elite, (but mostly Germany) are using the Euro crisis as an opportunity to create a United States of Europe through the back door in the guise of a new fiscal and political union. The countries that sign up to this will sign away the last remnants of their freedom, independence and sovereignty. Instead of shackling themselves deeper and deeper in the EU straitjacket those countries should have the courage to say no as it is only by being free of the dictates of their EU masters that Europe can resurrect itself. Greek sovereignty is now for sale...GREECE ALREADY HAS A GERMAN GOVERNOR : Horst Rauchenbach is the governor since oct. 2011....
Note to reporters: Mr. Dallara and Mr.Lemierre will be leaving Athens tomorrow and will remain in close consultation with Greek and other authorities.


January 28, 2012 — Mr. Charles Dallara and Mr. Jean Lemierre, Steering Committee Co-Chairmen of the Private Creditor-Investor Committee for Greece, stated: “We continued discussions today with Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos over the elements of a voluntary debt exchange. Further progress was made, building on the understandings reached yesterday on the key legal and technical issues. We are close to the finalization of a voluntary PSI within the framework expressed publicly earlier this week by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker in his capacity as Chairman of the Eurogroup. We expect to conclude next week as discussions on other issues move forward.”

Saturday, January 28, 2012

How long the rest of Europe will tolerate Germany's stealth pseudo-Nazi plan

Fitch downgraded Italy, Spain and Slovenia by two notches and Belgium and Cyprus by one notch. Fitch took no action on France's AAA credit rating despite S&P downgrading the country two weeks ago. The rating agency warned that the eurozone crisis would only be resolved "as and when there is broad economic recovery" and with "greater fiscal integration". It was also being reported last night that the German government wants Greece to hand over control of tax and spending decisions to a 'budget commissioner' appointed by the rest of the eurozone, before the country gets its second bail-out. The budget commissioner would have to power to veto decisions made by the Greek government, according to a proposal seen by the Financial Times, marking a significant step-up in the EU's powers over the sovereign governments of member states The Greeks are going to fall out of the euro whether the Germans appoint an economic Gauleiter or not. Anybody who lent them money is not going to get any of it back from the Greeks. If they took out insurance then maybe but it won't be from the Greeks. Any company that insured that debt should take a good look at its management. How long will it take until people realize that the 4th Reich is just around the corner and the politicians in Germany are getting bolder and bolder. Talk about a jackboot on a face , we're nearly there.


I wonder how long the rest of Europe will tolerate Germany's stealth pseudo=Nazi plan to take over the continent and make it a big Deutschland. Merkel doesn't look like Hitler but underneath her aims are similar.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Merkel's floating of the idea of raiding the existing EU structural funds to create a new growth fund has already been dismissed by the EU Budget Commissioner (Hahn? Huhn? Something like that) as impractical. So that money is unlikely to suddenly become available in Brussels. I think it'll take a few more meetings to wear down her resistance. And they most definitely won't be called "fiscal transfers". (The phrase is absolute poison in german political terms, because everybody knows how much the reconstruction of east germany cost. And that was just 18 million basically hard-working and frugal germans, whose industrial base had just imploded). Doing a "solidarity surcharge Mark 2" for the eurozone periphery is simply beyond germany's capacity. But Monti and most german economic commentators, and the IMF, are all essentially saying the same thing. Austerity and reform, yes. But growth packages are essential too. And the money for that is presumably going to have to come from either EU or Eurozone states. So she'll presumably be presenting another package in the Bundestag soon, is my guess. I suspect to set up a new EU fund. As regards waiting until the elections. No, I don't think so - she's invested so much political capital in the eurozone crisis diplomacy that she can't put it on the backburner now.
DAVOS - Hopes that Germany might crumble, and agree to the sort of things that would help resolve the crisis – a bigger firewall, some form of debt Maturalization, bolder central bank intervention – have been further dashed here. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has been as defiant as ever. Of course, any kid with an O level in economics will know that if you lend countries money so that they can buy from you, sooner, or later, you will come unstuck. And the euro and Germany is coming unstuck big time. So much so, the last I heard was that no German banks were lending to any country other than Germany - nice!
Therefore, why Germany is refusing to accept the inevitable outcome of its failed economic practices is beyond any reasonable comprehension. I guess, the only reason could be that, if it agrees the countries can't pay back their debt and the troikas are not that stupid to bailout Germany's debtors so that they can pay their debts to Germany giving it an unfair advantage over us (who are also owed), then Germany itself will have to give one hell of a Barber of Seville haircut to its euro zone debtors - basically all the euro (and non-euro) using EU member states which were all practically bankrupt when they were admitted to the suicide pact called the EU.

The question we have to ask is what happens after Greece defaults, it's never going to be able to pay off it's loans no matter how many times the money markets threaten to break someone's legs. There will come a point where people will turn around and say no and then those put in power by the money markets will be run out of town.It also doesn't make a whole bit of difference if the whole of EuroZone is rated below AAA by Standard and Poor. The crisis is too deep and will be too long lasting for any of the measures now being talked about to effective. I am wondering what will their approach be after Obama is re elected, probably more of the same I expect. As this recession continues into a long term depression I am wondering how long it will take for Joe public to realize they have been had over all the deficit, debt reduction bull. Because any QE here or in the US doesn't kick start the economy but goes into the pockets of the very people who caused the crisis in the first place.

Headlines ...lies and stupid "IDIOTS" like Rehn blowing wind !

• Spanish unemployment reaches 5.3m, or 22.8%, raising the prospect that Spain could ask Brussels for a softening of its deficit targets
• EU commissioner Ollie Rehn says a Greece deal is 'very close' with another meeting of the Greeks and creditors tonight
• A sharp fall in business lending in the eurozone has increased fears of a second credit crunch
• Portuguese bond yields have continued to rise on fears that the indebted country may need a second international bailout

Sunday, January 22, 2012

It appeared that Greece had secured a deal to pay an interest rate of 3.1%, rising to 4.75%, on new 30-year bonds created from its outstanding €360bn (£300bn) debt burden. With compound interest at these levels, the Greek government is paying over the odds. Effectively the debt doubles every 23 years at 3.1% or very 15 years at 4.75%. So for a thirty year bond, the Greeks will be paying back over double the amount they borrowed. However, it will be interesting to see how much inflation or loss of purchasing power the Euro loses over this period. An outline deal, hurriedly endorsed by Brussels, came after a frantic three days of negotiations that at one time appeared to be heading for deadlock. It appeared that Greece had secured a deal to pay an interest rate of 3.1%, rising to 4.75%, on new 30-year bonds created from its outstanding €360bn (£300bn) debt burden. The effect would be for creditors to accept write-downs of up to 70% on many of their loans. Sources close to the Greek government said it was still possible that major lenders could walk away if there was a failure to get agreement on some of the fine detail, but Athens was confident that further talks over the weekend would bring a comprehensive deal. Before the news, trading on world stock markets was subdued, indicating the importance attached to a Greek deal as investors waited for the outcome before committing funds. The FTSE 100 finished the day down 12 points at 5728.55, closing before speculation surfaced that a Greek deal was imminent. The French CAC and the German Dax were also down 7 and 11 points respectively. The Dow Jones followed a more positive path closing up 96.5 points at 12720.48. Greece has become the focus of tension in the euro-zone for the third time in as many years after first announcing it was in trouble in the spring of 2010.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Will Europe's industrial ambition be accomplished thanks to specific structuring action?

EUROPA - Cradle of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, industrial Europe has gradually been caught up and then taken over by other geographic areas - yesterday it was North America, tomorrow it will be Asia. Is this an inevitable development?... Should we fear it, resign ourselves to it or fight it? What should we do so that Europe's industrial ambition comes to full fruition? In the light of past major successes the recipe seems to be quite simple: we have to choose the appropriate industrial sectors; we have to stop comparing competitiveness and industrial policy in the ilk of the USA; we have to strengthen national industrial policy coordination and put an end to protectionist behavior on the part of the Member States; develop coordination work between the Commission and the States with major programs and by introducing poles of technological and industrial excellence that bring together public authorities, industrial players, research centres, as well as the universities; we must step up the supervision of standards, industrial property rights, the supervision of key technologies; finally we need to develop an intelligent, coordinated, reciprocal policy in extra-European international trade. Hence in an extremely pragmatic manner and in the way Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman would have done, Europe's industrial ambition will be accomplished thanks to specific structuring action.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

S&P delivers it's verdict on the European Central Bank's long-term refinancing operation

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered the 'AAA' long-term issuer credit rating on the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the short-term issuer credit rating at 'A-1+'. We removed the ratings from CreditWatch, where they had been placed with negative implications on Dec. 6, 2011. The outlook is developing. When we announced the placement of the ratings on the EFSF on CreditWatch on Dec. 6, 2011, we said that, depending on the outcome of our review of the ratings of the EFSF's guarantor member sovereigns, we would likely align the issue and issuer credit ratings on the EFSF with those of the lowest issuer rating we assigned to the EFSF members we rated 'AAA' (as of Dec. 6, 2011), unless we saw that sufficient credit enhancements were in place to maintain the EFSF rating at 'AAA' (see "European Financial Stability Facility Long-Term 'AAA' Rating Placed On CreditWatch Negative," published Dec. 6, 2011). On Jan. 13, 2012, we announced rating actions on 16 members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone; see "Standard & Poor's Takes Various Rating Actions On 16 Eurozone Sovereign Governments," Jan. 13, 2012). We lowered to 'AA+' the long-term ratings on two of the EFSF's previously 'AAA' rated guarantor members, France and Austria. The outlook on the long-term ratings on France and Austria is negative, indicating that we believe that there is at least a one-in-three chance that we will lower the ratings again in 2012 or 2013. We affirmed the ratings on the other 'AAA' rated EFSF members: Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, and The Netherlands. Germany and Finland, the remaining AAA-rated countries in the single currency, are expected to come under pressure to increase their commitments to bolster the EFSF's funds to prevent a further downgrade and the likelihood that lenders will demand higher interest costs. The blow to the EFSF came as bankers poured cold water on hopes for an early deal between Greece and its creditors after they accused Athens of making "completely unreasonable" demands for debt payment cuts. Charles Dallara, head of the Institute of International Finance which represents Greece's private creditors, said talks had yet to reach agreement on any aspect of a deal following demands from Greek negotiators for ultra-low interest rates on its outstanding debts.

Monday, January 9, 2012

At it after 20 years ...unconditional support for the IVth Reich

Germany has sold €3.9bn of six-month bills at a negative interest rate. The Bundesbank just announced that it sold the debt, repayable in July, at a average yield of - 0.0122%. That means that investors agreed to receive less than they lent to Germany, when the bills are repaid. According to the Bundesbank, this is the first time that investors have agreed a negative yield at an auction of German debt. So why would anyone accept a negative interest rate? Typically, this happens for two reasons. Either buyers want protection from deflation, or they fear that there is nowhere better to place their money. In this case, the rush for Safe Havens is probably to blame. In contrast, Hungary's borrowing costs have been driven even higher today, as the country's political crisis continued to fuel fears that it could default. Hungary sold 40bn forints (£18m) of six-week debt (repayable in late February) this morning, but was forced to agree an interest rate of 7.77% (up from 7.24% at the previous auction of this kind).

In other news, Der Spiegel has reported that Greece may be heading for a disorderly default, which has sent the cost of insuring against non-payment on European sovereign debt upwards. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit-default swaps on 15 governments rose as much as four basis points to 386, and was trading at 383 earlier this morning. In other, simpler words: the perception of credit quality is deteriorating.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

The latest draft of a new pact on the financial crisis, focusing on how the European Commission can sanction debt-sinners and how to merge the new treaty with EU law despite a UK veto. According to this draft version of the new pact sent to national governments on Thursday, the commission "may, on behalf of contracting parties" bring a legal case before the European Court of Justice if the countries subscribing to the pact break the so-called golden rule of keeping balanced budgets which are to be enshrined in national constitutions. In a first version of the text drafted last month, only member states could take fellow countries to court for breaching the debt-brake rule. But getting the commission - which represents all 27 member states and is bound by the EU treaties - involved in an intergovernmental arrangement at 26-level poses legal challenges which could be attacked in the EU court. The problem arises after the UK in December vetoed writing the new measures into the EU Treaty directly because it was unhappy over upcoming legislation which might affect the City of London. The legal trick to get around the issue could be mandating the commission to act "on behalf" of member states, one EU diplomat said. LET'S NOT FORGET : The Commission is not an elected body and the Parliament has no legislative power ! British Prime Minister David Cameron pledged to do "everything possible" to stop signatories of a new fiscal treaty from using the European Commission and the European Court of Justice. "You can't have a treaty outside the EU that starts doing what should be done within the EU," he told BBC.

The perfect ‘storm scenario’ for the euro in 2012:

• Widespread downgrades, including of the eurozone’s remaining Triple A countries, by credit rating agencies. Serious questions would be raised over the viability of the eurozone’s bailout funds as they rely on an ever thinner list of Triple A eurozone states, leaving the euro with little more than a paper tiger as a backstop.


• Spanish banks could hit the iceberg as households fail to pay their mortgages and the level of non-performing loans pile up. If it gets bad enough, the Spanish government wouldn't afford to recapitalise these banks on its own and must seek a potentially huge bailout from the EU/IMF.


• In addition to those in Spain, one or more banks in Italy or France could sink due to large exposure to weaker euro states - following a hard Greek default for example. As in Spain, there are doubts as to whether these governments could afford to bail out their banks without outside help.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

France sells 2041 bonds at average yield of 3.97pc versus 3.94pc in December. Sells 2021 bonds at an average yield of 2.29pc against 3.18pc in December. But id-to-cover drops significantly to its lowest since October 2010. Some reaction to France's semi-successful €8bn bond auction. Overall it's a pretty solid auction. When you look at things like bid cover and particularly the price action going into the auction, where quite a concession was built in, it's nothing to get excited about. But, at the same time it should be enough to dispel concerns with regards to France's funding capacity for the time being. The French auction results are in. The good news is that France managed to sell nearly €8bn of debt, as planned. The bad news is that demand for its 10-year bonds fell sharply, while the interest rate demanded by investors rose. France sold €4bn of 10-year bonds at an average yield of 3.29%, up from 3.18% at the last auction of this type. The bid-to-cover ratio (measuring the amount of bids tabled versus the debt on offer) fell to just 1.643%, down from 3.046%. In comparison, Germany managed to sell 10-year Bunds yesterday at a yield of just 1.93%.

Monday, January 2, 2012

2012 - More "more" than less "LESS"

* More transfer of power from nation states to the EUSSR and less democracy .
* More EU/ NUJ censored press .
* More anti-Truth-Speech legislation and less freedom of speech .
* More Sharia compliant Blasphemy Law and Anti-Racism EUSSR show-trials .
* More EU Cultural Marxism and Political Correctness .
* More illegal immigrants, criminals, murderers , fraudsters , peadophile groomers , jihadists and other bandits not being deported to protect their human rights .
* Higher unemployment and more jobs going to foreigners .
* More mosques .
* More ghettoes .
* More Islamification .
* More immigration ( cultural ethnocide )
* More cultural diversity and enrichment (balkanization)
* Fewer European people .

* Israel attacks Iran. Russians and Chinese intervene with 'Sunburn' nook missiles. Tel Aviv becomes a glass car park which gets bought for a token 1 Shekel by a British sovereign wealth investment fund. Ron Paul wins election. Closes all USA bases around the world. Shuts down the Fed and links the US$ to the gold price. He then audits Fort Knox and finds no gold there. Records indicate that all the 8,000 tonnes of gold had been spirited away to ... Tel Aviv. They start digging in that carpark.... find the gold and Germany becomes the richest country in the world as gold is now valued at $10,000 an ounce.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Contingency plans ...

LONDON - The Treasury is working on contingency plans for the disintegration of the single currency that include capital controls. The preparations are being made only for a worst-case scenario and would run alongside similar limited capital controls across Europe, imposed to reduce the economic fall-out of a break-up and to ease the transition to new currencies. Officials fear that if one member state left the euro, investors in both that country and other vulnerable eurozone nations would transfer their funds to safe havens abroad. Capital flight from weak euro nations to countries such as the UK would drive up sterling, dealing a devastating blow to the Government’s plans to rebalance the economy towards exports. Earlier this year, Switzerland was forced to peg its currency to the euro to protect the economy after a massive appreciation in the Swiss franc due to spiralling fears over Europe. The plans emerged as Spain’s new finance minister Luis de Guindos warned the country’s economy was set for negative growth in the last quarter.

Monday, December 26, 2011

BANKS, Banks, banks and Swift

EuroZone BANKS - As the euro-zone debt crisis intensified in recent months, at least two global banks took steps to install back-up technology systems that could handle trades in old European currencies like drachmas, escudos and lire. That, the banks quickly found, is not so easy in a financial world that is trying to both exhibit confidence in the ailing euro and—just in case—plan for its possible demise. Technology managers at the banks contacted Swift, the Belgium-based consortium that manages the network used in financial transactions, said people familiar with the matter. The banks wanted Swift's technology support and the currency codes that would be necessary to set up the backup systems. But Swift declined to provide some information for such contingency planning, including whether old codes could be used in the system, said the people familiar with the matter. That is partly because officials there feared that releasing the information could fuel further doubts and instability in the euro zone, these people said. It is a relatively minor setback for banks, as they look at everything from loan agreements to the safety of their branch staff in the event of one country's withdrawal from the euro currency. But it illustrates the road blocks that politicians, banks and companies in Europe face as they attempt to simultaneously prepare for a euro-zone break up while assuaging market fears.