IMF warns it could hold back bail-out cash without assurances that Greece will fulfil its commitments, but Papandreou is 'unable to give that', while EC President urges Greece to back eurozone package.

Eurozone chairman Jean-Claude Juncker is at the Cannes meeting, and he is not happy with Greece's decision to stop the bail-out process to give the public have a chance to vote. He said: "We took a decision last week as 17 (member states), we can't allow anyone to disassociate himself from that decision." But a pragmatic French official, also at the summit, said there was little chance of stopping them. The best they could hope for was to get the vote out of the way quickly. It is too late to persuade them to go back on the decision to hold a referendum. The idea is that they hold the referendum as quickly as possible and make it about being in the euro.Ben Bernanke said it was "a bit frustrating" to have to watch the Euro debacle from the sidelines and listed it in the run of "bad luck" that had held back US recovery alongside the nuclear accident in Japan and high oil prices. But he didn't give much insight into the Fed committee's thinking on the impact of European woes on the US or on what, if anything, the US can do to help the situation. Sadly he may have been silent because really there isn't much the US can do at all.The US markets seem to be having an unusually normal day. They started mildly up and have stayed there. There's almost a sense of "normalcy" as Americans like to say. No doubt there'll be a huge sell off or rally soon. For the record, the Dow Jones index is up 183 points, or 1.5%, with around half an hour to go.

Meanwhile, back in Europe, tensions are running high... A European Union official has given an interview to a small group of reporters in Cannes, appearing "angry and frustrated", according to the Wall Street Journal. The anonymous official said: I have no words to describe how I feel about Greece. Uncertainty is exactly what we don't need right now. If Greece were going to war tomorrow, they would establish national unity. Well, we are at war. The crisis is that bad. And it's time that Greece put party politics aside and demonstrate national unity. Greece as a country has to make it clear that they want to make the kind of effort that is necessary. If not, they have to bear the consequences. Papandreou, whether consciously or not, has called Europe's bluff. With a potential NO from the Greek people he could bring the European house of cards down. He is in a unique position, in my view, to renegotiate a bailout package with much more favourable terms for his people. And this is something that could benefit many other countries (Italy, Portugal etc). Truly, there can't be no growth in an economy - especially that of Greece - when what is imposed by the troika is no less than a reduction of people's real income by 1/3. Imagine what would happen to us here if the same conditions were imposed. I for one would not be able to pay my mortgage. And, what's more, the Left in Greece could play a vital role if in the end Pap's government falls (they would have to form an interim "national unity" government put together by their president). The New Democracy party (conservatives) are truly responsible for this mess in Greece and its current leader is really a laughable fellow. Let's just hope that it's the people who are favoured this time round and NOT the international markets and/or the banks.

...Greek papers this morning are saying the famous 6th tranche of aid (the €8bn euro needed to cover public sector payments by Nov 10th when the government has admitted it will run out of cash) is now in question following Prime Minister George Papandreou's deeply controversial decision to put last week's latest EU/IMF rescue package for the country to popular vote. Prominent commentator Ioannis Pretenderis, in the usually pro-government Ta Nea, wrote that: The prospect of a referendum is catastrophic. First because it throws the agreement struck on October 26th up in the air and will lead the country to bankruptcy. At this moment, in the general European uproar, not even the sixth aid installment is guaranteed. Secondly, because it cunningly turns the question of the governance of the country into one about its European perspective. Third and worst of all, because it turns the European future of Greece that was always a given into something that is questionable. Already, the damage is huge almost irreparable. I don't know the motives or thought process that lead Papandreou to make this decision. Already, the damage is huge, almost irreparable. Such stinging rebukes are being much echoed in the ranks of Papandreou's ruling Pasok party which has been in melt-down since the surprise announcement was made. An emergency meeting of the entire cabinet, called by the embattled leader after the defection of an MP showed all the signs of becoming a full-on mutiny, went on into the early hours as ministers voiced their shock and disgruntlement over the decision. With tensions running so high Pasok insiders say it' far from assured that the government will receive a make-or-break vote of confidence that Papandreou has called for midnight Friday...

Band-aid for the Eurozone - nothig else !

Brussels deal is another sticking "band-aid" to patch up a brocken eurozone - First, it is woefully short on detail. The euro bailout fund (the EFSF) is to be leveraged up to €1 trillion (£878bn) but we are not told how. Greek bond holders will take a haircut of 50pc but we don't know how this will work or even that Greece's creditors will accept it. European banks will need to raise an extra €100bn to recapitalise themselves, but we don't know whether they will be able and willing to raise this money from the markets. (They might instead react by cutting their lending, which would be catastrophic for the economy.) So the deal may yet disintegrate, but let us assume it holds together. Will it work? Apparently, after the haircut, the Greek debt to GDP ratio will be brought down to 120pc by 2020. Supposedly, creditors of the Greek government can then sleep easy. Come off it! Most observers put the danger point for sovereign indebtedness at about 90pc-100pc of GDP. And, by the way, all these numbers rest on forecasts that the Greek economy grows reasonably well. That looks hardly likely. Similarly, if the eurozone economy is weak then bad debts will rise and European banks will need more capital. Moreover, the sum of €1 trillion for the EFSF is rather low. Just a few weeks ago, the talk was of the fund needing to be €2 trillion, which is about the size of Italian government debt.

China has stressed it will not be a "savior" to Europe as President Hu Jintao embarks on an official visit to the continent that will take in this Thursday's crucial G20 summit in Cannes The warning came as European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy urged G20 leaders to use the meeting of major economies to address Europe's debt crisis, saying measures proposed last week were not enough by themselves. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said Beijing had a "major role to play" in proposals to expand the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to €1 trillion (£877bn), possibly through a special purpose investment vehicle that would attract backing from sovereign wealth funds. The head of the bail-out fund, Klaus Regling, was dispatched to Beijing to discuss terms, but traveled on to Japan at the weekend without an agreement. China, holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves at $3.2 trillion, said it wanted more clarity before investing. The official Xinhua news agency, used to communicate Communist Party policy, said Europe must address its own financial woes. "China can neither take up the role as a saviour to the Europeans, nor provide a 'cure' for the European malaise," it stated. "Obviously, it is up to European countries themselves to tackle their financial problems."

NOTES about EFSF - I've read before that the EFSF is permitted to issue bonds denominated in currencies other than the euro, but the governments of the euro zone states have promised to provide guarantees denominated in euros, and I doubt that all 17 national parliaments have passed laws authorizing their governments to provide guarantees denominated in any other currency and laying down conditions for them to do that, especially regarding the applicable exchange rate“We have so far only issued euro bonds but we are authorised to use any currency we want if it seems efficient,” Klaus Regling, chief executive of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), said. "It also depends on the Chinese authorities, whether they would approve that. I think it is probably more difficult. But I could imagine that over the years it might happen," he added. China has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world, valued at $3.2 trillion (£2 trillion) . Mr Regling also said that investors may be protected against a fifth of any initial losses. “The EFSF will take a certain tranche that will be a junior tranche, which means if something goes wrong, the first loss will be carried by the EFSF. It could be around 20pc,” Mr Regling said in a speech at Tsinghua University.

"To fulfill its mission, EFSF issues bonds or other debt instruments on the capital markets. EFSF is backed by guarantee commitments from the euro area Member States for a total of €780 billion and has a lending capacity of €440 billion."

Therefore if I was the responsible person in the Chinese government, or indeed any other investor who might be interested, I would be looking ahead to how the yuan-euro exchange rate might change during the lifetime of the bonds denominated in Yuan. To the extent that I anticipated that the yuan would strengthen against the euro, I would also anticipate an effective weakening of the euro denominated guarantees of yuan denominated bonds. To take a simple illustration, if I anticipated that the value of the yuan would double against that of the euro then I would calculate that if the EFSF only issued bonds denominated in yuan then the effective value of the €780 billion total guarantees would be halved, meaning that its effective borrowing and lending capacity would be halved from €440 billion to €220 billion. And if the EFSF is expected to provide guarantees to assist a second SPV or SPIV to borrow much larger sums, anything which erodes the effective value of the guarantees provided to the EFSF by the eurozone state governments must also erode its capacity to provide guarantees to that larger SPIV.

How fortunate for governments that the people they administer don't think-.A.H.

An astonishing outburst from Silvio Berlusconi, the embattled Italian prime minister, being reported on Bloomberg. Here's a taste of the flashes we are seeing:

• The euro 'hasn't convinced anyone'.
• The euro is a strange currency.
• Italy is the 'most solide' EU country after Germany
• Austerity measures won't work without growth
• Financial markets 'don't forgive' Italy for its large public debt

In the mean time
• Markets slip as euphoria over EU summit deal fades - it's all a fraud, the deal is fake!
• Italian bond yields close to danger levels despite crisis plan (the plan is a fake)
• German court suspends bail-out fund decision committee
• Eurozone bail-out fund chief warns, no quick China deal

Euro was invented to facilitate the taking over of the European energetic capacities as well economic resources in general by Russia. It was hard to do so having 27 different currencies! Now, Germany is taking over the administration of governments just as it happened before WW 2. Long live the 4th. Reich !

THE RIBBENTROP - MOLOTOV PACT - IMPLEMENTED - the second pillar.

THE RIBBENTROP-MOLOTOV PACT - IMPLEMENTED - the second pillar. Germany takes over the administration of Europe. In Berlin, the new epicentre of political as well as economic Europe, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, was putting the finishing touches to her government statement to the Bundestag on the broad shape of the new "bazooka" – the enhanced bailout fund, or EFSF, that would save Europe from any reprise of the sovereign debt crisis that has overtaxed the powers of EU leaders to assert the primacy of politics over the naked short-sellers of financial markets. The letter – which Berlusconi hopes will give him a respite from humiliating criticisms of his country's €1.9tn debt and stagnant economy – was in Rome, being touched up by his advisers, but it was one of three key elements to a day destined to determine Europe's future. Down the road in Brussels from the marble-clad Justus Lipsius building, the current home of the council of ministers, EU officials – marshalled fittingly enough by an Italian treasury official, Vittorio Grilli – began a new session of their tortuous, often aggressive talks with leading bankers over how to reduce Greece's debt burden and allow a second bailout package to go ahead. Later the negotiations over the "haircuts" for holders of Greek debt moved from the Lex building to Justus Lipsius so they could be closer to Europe's political leaders. The overnight news from Rome was that Berlusconi had cut a deal on pensions reform with the Northern League, but that did not pacify the Italian press corps, the biggest national contingent in Brussels and the best-paid. At the midday news conference in the Berlaymont, the European commission's headquarters, that letter was the sole topic. "Can't we interest you in anything else?" Olivier Bailly, the spokesman, asked plaintively. He could not.

As Donald Tusk, the Polish premier whose country holds the rotating presidency, set out the achievements so far, a leak of the draft eurozone summit communique began doing the rounds. It again contained no figures, preferring instead to talk of boosting the bailout fund's firepower "severalfold" and strengthening the role of the European commission as Greece's debt and budget inspector. No word of those "haircuts" for the banks. Merkel and her team had spent all day lowering expectations of breakthroughs, big bangs, full-range bazookas; as dinner for the eurozone 17 loomed it looked pretty clear they were right.

Resque - Europe's leaders are claiming a victory in the eurozone crisis after agreeing new deals that halve Greek debt and increase the firepower of the main bailout fund to around €1trn. Athens will be handed a new €100bn bailout early in the new year. The accord was reached in the early hours of Thursday after hours of fractious debate. At one stage talks broke down with holders of Greek debt but they ended up accepting a loss or "haircut" of 50% in converting their existing bonds into new loans. Investors are likely to welcome the breakthrough. Sharp gains are predicted for European markets on opening, with the FTSE 100 being called up 75 points and similar rises expected on the German and French stock markets. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, helped broker the deal in talks with the bankers that also included the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde. Merkel said the swap would take place in January. Sarkozy said private sector investors would refinance Greek's remaining debt at preferential rates while governments would find €30bn to go alongside €100bn from the private sectors. The French president and German chancellor both insisted that the €440bn bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), could find its firepower increased by four to five times. Since the fund has about €250bn left this could amount to €1trn – or US$1.4trn in Sarkozy's words. "We have reached an agreement which I believe lets us give a credible and ambitious and overall response to the Greek crisis," Sarkozy told reporters as the meeting broke on Thursday morning. "Because of the complexity of the issues at stake it took us a full night. But the results will be a source of huge relief worldwide."

Welcome back to my live blog, which will be covering the euro-zone leaders’ crucial meeting today where they will attempt to reach a definitive agreement to tackle the bloc’s spiraling debt crisis and market movements. There are worries that a deal will not be agreed, despite the urgency of the situation. The euro-zone leaders need to reach a deal on a second Greek bailout, including agreement on how much Greek bondholders will have to write off in so-called haircuts. They also need to confirm final details of a deal to boost the euro zone’s rescue fund–the European Financial Stability Facility. Meanwhile, the EFSF needs to be ratified today by the German parliament and Italian policy makers wrestle to come up with a solution to its debt mountain which satisfies both the EU and, perhaps more importantly, the markets.

The Italian Treasury paid higher yields Wednesday than a month ago to sell the planned €10.5 billion short-term debt, as markets remain tense over Italian political and economic prospects, and over the outcome of the European Union summit later in the day. The Treasury, which faces a further two debt sales this week, sold €8.5 billion in six-month Treasury bills and €2 billion of the September 2013-dated CTZ, a zero-coupon bond. It paid an average yield of 3.535% on the six-month T-bills, up from 3.071% previously. It paid a yield of 4.628%, up from 4.511%, on the CTZ. Demand was in line with previous auctions.
"The rising yields reflect increasing political uncertainty in Italy," said Tobias Blattner, director for economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. "They also reflect uncertainty over tonight's summit, as hopes for a solution to the debt crisis seem now fading." Italy is at the forefront of euro-zone concerns with €1.9 trillion in debt, said Société Générale analysts. The country is facing simultaneous headwinds, including a cyclical slowdown which, in SocGen's view, will "almost certainly" lead to a recession in 2012 and 2013 and a structural loss of competitiveness, as well as an electoral system that prevents a clear-cut improvement in establishing economic policy.

EUROPE - The Polish finance minister appears to have dashed hopes that a big package will be decided tomorrow. Jacek Rostowski gave this indication in a letter to Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker last night, according to the FT Brussels by Peter Spiegel. Since Poland holds the rotating presidency of the EU, Rostowski is charged with calling meetings of the Ecofin, comprised of finance ministers from the 17 countries that use the euro. Here's what he said: As things stand at present, I understand that the full package may not be ready by Wednesday, 26 October. Were this the case, the presidency would need to postpone the Ecofin council meeting by a day or two. Therefore I would like to ask you to keep me informed on when the remaining elements of the package will be completed by the Eurogroup so that I can convene the Ecofin meeting as promptly as possible. Stock markets have turned negative after comments from German chancellor Angela Merkel and rumours that tomorrow's meeting of eurozone finance ministers has been cancelled. The FTSE has tumbled more than 30 points to 5515, a 0.6% fall. Spain's Ibex is down 1.1%, Portugal's PSI 1.4% and Italy's FTSE MIB 1.2%. Merkel said Germany was opposed to a phrase in the draft EU summit document that calls for support for the continued use of 'non-standard measures' by the European Central Bank. EU sources told Reuters said the phrase referred to the ECB's purchase of bonds from countries like Italy and Spain. Greek prime minister George Papandreou hopes Wednesday's EU summit will draw a line under Greece's economic crisis. He appealed for unity in his Socialist party to approve the latest round of austerity measures. He said the deal, which could include a reduction of up to 60% in the face value of Greece's debt of more than €200bn, would help reduce the burden on ordinary Greeks. Papandreou told Greek president Karolos Papoulis in a televised discussion before leaving for the summit: Tomorrow we want to be able to turn the page, so that we, as Europe and as a country, can move forward. We have been fighting a great battle... for these burdens and responsibilities to be shared, so that the Greek people can breathe and move forward with the country's rebirth. It takes a sense of calmness and unity from all parties.

Europe is facing "clear and present danger". Europe: not the eurozone, not the subcontinent south of the channel, but the society that after triggering two world wars has finally learned to peacefully build on a wonderfully diverse cultural heritage. That Europe is now in danger of being sucked into a black hole of mistrust, in the course of a long-lasting series of economic and political failures. As Europe grapples with financial instability and its leaders hold a series of summits to try to agree a rescue plan, free-floating financial capital keeps shunning entrepreneurial investment, maintaining that instability. In the present world, only a green growth strategy – currently spearheaded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developement – offers the opportunity to turn sufficient amounts of financial capital into entrepreneurial investment. Transforming the cities, businesses and homes of Europe so as to increase welfare while reducing damages to the environment is widely seen as a desirable goal, and it can trigger the investments needed to overcome the present crisis.

Merkel's spokesman Steffan Seibert told journalists that further changes to Europe's bailout fund would require the agreement of the Bundestag, the German parliament. The eurozone's efforts to solve its escalating debt crisis plunged into disarray Thursday, when Germany and France called a second emergency summit after it became clear that they would not be able to bridge their difference in time for a first crisis meeting Sunday. Merkel's address to parliament scheduled for Friday was cancelled, and Seibert said it would take place next week. Sunday's summit was supposed to deliver a comprehensive plan to finally get a grip on the currency union's debt troubles by detailing new financing for debt-ridden Greece, a plan to make Europe's banks fit to sustain worsening market turbulence and a scheme to make the eurozone bailout fund more powerful. The announcement came from the offices of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel after it became clear that the currecy union's two biggest countries could not agree on the main points of the plan. Both governments said that all elements of the eurozone's crisis strategy would be discussed on Sunday "so it can be definitively adopted by the Heads of State and Government at a second meeting Wednesday at the latest." It also said that the two leaders would meet Saturday afternoon ahead of the summit in Brussels in the hope of making progress.

The European Union's executive may ask for powers to censor credit ratings for countries in crisis, its financial reform chief said on Thursday, describing a ban as one way of stopping fallout from "ill-thought-out" ratings. The proposal, which officials cautioned may be impossible to police, would be the most stringent curb yet on rating agencies and highlights frustration in France, which was this week warned by Moody's that its top rating was under threat, and Germany. "These rating agencies should probably be considered one of the causes of this crisis," said Michel Barnier, the former French foreign minister who is now the EU commissioner in charge of regulating finance.

Whatever the outcome of this weekend's on - off, on again summit, it seems unlikely the 17 euro countries will get what's needed, given Germany's entrenched reluctance. As we predicted after the July 21 summit, Europe's leaders continue to fall behind the problem they're trying to solve. That's a constantly evolving debt crisis that gets bigger by the day. It doesn't stop and wait, its morbid momentum reflected in markets since early summer. What we'll see revealed in Brussels this weekend is that the euro zone is not just a flawed currency system, but it is also a flawed political system incapable of being led and incapable of making the difficult, often painful decisions required. Could it, for instance, ever impose the sort of fiscal discipline being attempted in the UK or the bank overcapitalization already complete here? I doubt it. That's not to be complacent about our own parlous position. We may be implementing fiscal and monetary policy decisions, but are they working? This crisis, whether elsewhere or in the euro zone, is like a virus mutating against a vaccine. Europe isn't using enough medicine while rest may have already administered what they can without any meaningful effect. The patient remains ill and the drugs aren't working.Markets slide on reports of deadlock between France and Germany in talks over how to expand the eurozone bailout fund, making a resolution by this weekend's crucial summit increasingly unlikely. Silvio Berlusconi has named Ignazio Visco as the new head of the Bank of Italy. He wasn't one of the favourites in the running for the job, which won't be an easy one at the moment. He's the existing deputy director general of the bank. Visco will take over from Mario Draghi, who is taking over from Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the European Central Bank.

ATHENS—Greece was paralyzed by a massive two-day strike Wednesday as groups ranging from civil servants to pharmacists and bakers walked off the job ahead of a key parliamentary vote Thursday on new austerity measures. Across the country, public services were frozen, with central and local government offices closed, schools and courts shut, and hospitals operating at bare minimum staff levels. A couple walks by pilling garbage during the second week of a strike by municipality workers and garbage collectors in Athens on Wednesday. Transport services were disrupted as ferry operations were suspended by a dockworkers' strike, while national rail services ground to a halt, and Greece's two major airlines—Olympic Air and Aegean Airlines canceled dozens of flights owing to a 12-hour walkout by air traffic controllers. Tens of thousands of Greek retailers and small businesses joined in, shutting their shops in protest over recent tax hikes and government cuts that have pushed the country deep into recession and led to a dramatic rise in the number of businesses declaring bankruptcies. The 48-hour strike, called by private-sector umbrella union GSEE and its public-sector counterpart ADEDY, is the second time this year that the two unions have called a two-day walkout over government austerity measures. It follows weeks of almost daily strikes, demonstrations and sit-ins, as well as a two-week-long protest by municipal workers that has left uncollected garbage piling up on the streets of Athens and other cities. "We have reached the limits of our endurance and, what is worse, is that there is no ray of hope," said Stathis Anestis, spokesman for GSEE. "We want to send a message that these austerity policies have been a catastrophe for Greece." Under pressure from its international creditors, Greece's government this month submitted legislation that would further cut public-sector jobs and wages, slash pensions for high-income earners, curtail collective-bargaining rights for workers and enact a new levies on taxpayers, among other things. On Thursday, Parliament will vote on the bill just days before a Sunday summit of European leaders that is expected to produce a comprehensive solution to the bloc's debt crisis, and which will also decide whether to release badly needed aid for Greece. At stake is an €8 billion ($11.0 billion) tranche of aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund that Greece needs in the next few weeks. The government has said that without the funding, it will run out of money by mid-November.

France and Germany have reached an agreement to boost the eurozone's rescue fund to €2tn (£1.75tn) as part of a "comprehensive plan" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, which this weekend's summit should endorse, EU diplomats said. The growing confidence that a deal can be struck at this Sunday's crisis summit came amid signs of market pressure on France following the warning by the ratings agency Moody's that it might review the country's coveted AAA rating because of the cost of bailing out its banks and other members of the eurozone. The leaders of France and Germany hope to agree a deal that will assuage market uncertainties or, worse, volatility, in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes early next month. France would now have to pay more than a percentage point – 114 basis points – over the price paid by Germany to borrow for 10 years as the gap between the two country's bond yields widened to their highest level since 1992. The news cheered US investors. All the major stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 250 points, or 2.2%, to 11,651, after earlier falling by 101 points earlier in the day. US markets have previously reacted uneasily to any new news from Europe. Earlier in the day Goldman Sachs reported third-quarter losses of $393m, only its second loss in 12 years.

The news from Brussels is that the European Financial Stability Facility is likely to be increased through means of a guarantee system. Eurozone officials are briefing that the EFSF will promise investors who buy Spanish, Italian or other debt that it will cover a portion of losses, potentially allowing it to guarantee a lot more debt than the fund is worth - €440bn. The guarantee idea is not new, but suggestions that it is the most likely solution is interesting. "This idea is the main contender," an unspecified eurozone official told Reuters. Some more poor statistics, this time from Germany. The ZEW Institute's monthly survey of German analyst and investor sentiment shows confidence falling to its lowest level in nearly three years. ZEW economist Michael Schroeder said he thought the country may already be in recession. he September figure should represent a peak in the rate of inflation, with petrol price rises and January's VAT hike falling out of the year-on-year comparisons in the fourth quarter and the new year respectively. Commodity prices, which tend to lead consumer prices, have fallen just over 10% from the peak seen in February, which also suggests we should see some further downward pressure on inflation.

Moody's, the ratings agency, issued a warning to France last night that it could face the loss of its coveted status as one of the world's most creditworthy nations after saying the euro debt crisis and slowing world economy left the country's AAA rating under pressure. It said that while the French economy remained able to absorb normal shocks, "the government's financial strength has weakened, as it has for other euro area sovereigns, because the global financial and economic crisis." The warning will come as a shock to many in France and is likely to unnerve markets already anxious at the prospect of the euro debt crisis spreading to the US and Asia. Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, added to the uncertainty earlier in the day when he said detailed talks to solve the crisis were likely to go beyond a self-imposed deadline set for this weekend. He also hinted that a rescue deal will fall short of the "big bazooka" that markets believe is needed to prevent the currency club breaking up. Schäuble said a final package would not be in place until the G20 world leaders' summit in Cannes next month. His comments dismayed investors concerned that Berlin and Paris have failed to grasp the magnitude of the eurozone's debt crisis. Stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt fell, while in New York the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 247 points by the close of trading. A two-month flight of cash from European banks accelerated, according to analysts, while fears grew earlier that ratings agencies were poised to downgrade French sovereign bonds, increasing the difference between France's borrowing costs and those of Germany to the highest level since 1995. Oil prices, which had steadied after recent falls, turned downwards again and the euro fell against the dollar as investors sought safe havens. David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index, said: "German officials clearly decided that a degree of expectation management was needed, and a statement was made warning that if anyone expected a package to be in place by next Monday then they were setting themselves up for disappointment." Markets were at fever pitch after the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said at the weekend that they would reveal a rescue plan this Sunday at a crucial European council meeting. The US treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, warned at the weekend it was crucial to agree a package of measures that would reassure markets and end 18 months of wrangling over how to deal with Greek debts. EU policymakers are due to meet this weekend in Brussels ahead of the G20 conference in Cannes on 4 November hosted by Sarkozy. The chancellor, George Osborne, said the Cannes meeting would be crucial in determining whether the global economy could maintain growth. "The biggest boost to growth across the world – and for Britain – would be a resolution to the crisis in the eurozone. Maintaining the momentum towards that will be the focus of my discussion with my international counterparts." Britain has ruled out participating directly in funding any scheme, though it is likely to become involved in a broader backstop plan put forward by the International Monetary Fund.

Berlin’s DIW institute, one of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s five official advisers, said attempts to boost the €440bn (£384bn) EFSF bail-out fund – possibly to €2 trillion – with guarantees to shore up southern Europe would be “poisonous” for France’s credit worthiness. Dr Ansgar Belke, the group’s research chief, said the leverage proposal emerging as part of the EU’s “Grand Plan” to restore confidence is self-defeating. “It counteracts efforts made so far to stabilise the eurozone debt crisis, which are premised on the AAA rating of a sufficiently large number of strong economies. In extremis, it would probably cause the break-up of the eurozone”, he told newspaper Handelsblatt. Berlin yesterday played down hopes of a major breakthrough as EU leaders rush to complete their plan before a deadline next week. Mrs Merkel’s spokesman said “dreams that everything will be resolved and dealt with by next Monday cannot be fulfilled”. European stock markets slid as traders took profits on the October rally, digesting Chinese data showing a sharp fall in new loans. Germany’s DAX fell 1.8pc, Italy’s MIB was off 2.3pc and the FTSE 100 eased 0.5pc. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, said there would be no “definitive solution” but expected a deal to use an enhanced EFSF in “the most efficient way”. It is unclear whether such plans breach last month’s ruling by Germany’s top court, which said the Bundestag may not transfer “fiscal responsibilities” to EU bodies or take on “incalculable” liabilities beyond German control. Any change would need a new constitution and a popular vote.

Lot's of "smoke" again ...

Jose Manuel Barroso has said he will this week propose “individual criminal responsibility for financial players to be recognised in European law”. The plans for an EU-wide directive would focus on curbing high frequency trading. “We have seen abusive behaviour, and some of this caused the current crisis. We are going to clamp down on these practices,” Mr Barroso told Le Parisien. “Those who violate the rules will face criminal penalties. This will be a first in European legislation and a strong signal.” The Commission will invoke new powers under Article 83 of the Lisbon Treaty allowing the EU to impose minimum rules and sanctions on member states when needed “to ensure the effective implementation” of EU policies. The clause allows the EU to broaden the European Arrest Warrant beyond limited areas such as terrorism, drug-trafficking, and money-laundering to softer crimes if they have a “cross-border dimension”. G20 finance ministers praised Europe’s efforts to “maximise the impact” of the EU’s €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF) and ensure that the region’s banks are “adequately capitalised”, but there were heated exchanges behind closed door as the Anglo-Saxon states, and India rebuked Europe’s leaders for failing to grasp the nettle and mobilize the full lending power of the European Central Bank. “They clearly have more work to do on strategy and details,” said US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. “In financial crises, it is more risky to act gradually and incrementally than to act with bold force”. Diplomats say Mr Geithner’s plan to use the ECB as a guarantor of eurozone sovereign bonds was dismissed out of hand, while the EU failed to offer clear assurances that bank recapitalisation would be carried out with sufficient speed and scale to halt an incipent run on the system. Olli Rehn, the EU’s economics commissioner, said Brussels will announce a “very serious plan” over come days to beef up banks and strengthen the firewall against contagion. German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle politely told the US to mind its own business. “I cannot understand some of the comments of our American friends. You can’t solve a debt crisis with more debt,” he told Bild Zeitung. Germany's finance minister says private holders of Greek government bonds must accept bigger losses to achieve "a durable and sustainable solution" for Europe's debt crisis. Wolfgang Schaeuble told German public broadcaster ARD on Sunday that an agreement struck in July when banks and other investors agreed to renounce on 20 percent of their Greek debt must be renegotiated. He says the private sector's contribution to a reduction of Greece's debt burden "will probably have to be higher." The Institute of International Finance, a global bank lobbying group, says its managing director Charles Dallara is in talks with officials from the 17-nation eurozone about the July agreement. Spokesman Frank Vogl declined to elaborate, but the group's leadership has so far rejected accepting bigger losses.

The EU will this week launch plans to invest €50bn (£44bn) in modernising digital, energy and transport networks, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs over the next few years. The European commission scheme envisages the use of bonds backed by the European Investment Bank (EIB) to fill funding gaps left by cash-strapped governments and leverage up private investment. The plans, due to be revealed on Wednesday, are designed to pay back taxpayers for the aid and guarantees of €4.6tn given to the financial sector in the past three years. Despite this taxpayer funded support, venture capital investments in Europe slumped last year to just €3bn. EIB president Philippe Maystadt said: "Infrastructure finance in Europe has suffered since the financial crisis and banks face new constraints on long term lending. Project bonds could be a way to attract capital from other investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, and be a useful addition to traditional financing options." The EC says developing smart infrastructure could require up to €1.5-2tn for trans-European transport networks, the energy sector and information and communication technologies. That equates to the putative size of the eurozone bailout fund discussed by G20 finance ministers at the weekend. The bulk of the funds to be announced this week (around €32bn) would go to transport infrastructure projects, with €9bn each earmarked for energy, including smart grids, and for broadband infrastructure and digital public services. Kroes said the money would be largely in the form of equity, debt or guarantees provided by the EU and EIB, thus improving the credit rating of projects. These would be proposed not only by telecoms operators but water and electricity utilities, co-ops or construction firms.