QUATRO REICH = THE EUROPEAN UNION

EUROPEAN UNION —The European Central Bank should police the more than 6,000 banks in the euro zone, the European Union's executive said Friday, setting itself up for a clash with Germany, which wants to retain oversight over smaller lenders.  A proposal from the European Commission, to be finalized in coming days, will call for the central bank to set up an agency to take responsibility for supervision of all banks in the 17-nation currency area. The proposal follows a June decision from euro-zone leaders who wanted the supervisor created as a step to break the "vicious circle" between weak banks and governments with strained finances that have eroded confidence in the euro zone. The proposal, however, falls far short of creating the true "banking union" that the ECB and the commission have called for. It doesn't set up a regional fund for guaranteeing bank deposits or give powers to euro-zone agencies to wind down or restructure shaky banks and distribute losses among investors. The ECB would, however, be able to take operating licenses away from unstable lenders. The supervisory agency would be run by a separate decision-making panel at arm's length from the ECB, in an effort to prevent conflicts of interests with the central bank's main role of fighting inflation and to allow EU states that don't use the euro to join.   As the supervisor, the ECB would have to make sure banks build up sufficient capital levels to absorb economic and financial shocks—such as the real-estate crashes that triggered the Irish and Spanish problems or over-investments in shoddy products like the U.S. subprime mortgages that sank banks across Europe in 2008.The threat to withdraw a license would be the ECB's most potent enforcement tool. "That's the first crucial element: to empower the European supervisor with the right to withdraw the license," said Guntram Wolff, deputy director of Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. But other powers and responsibilities that are central to creating a unified banking framework for the euro zone would remain in national hands. Proposals that would force private investors to share the burden—for instance by converting debt into equity once a bank's capital falls below are certain level—aren't set to come into force until 2018. In a sign of possible movement, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, in an opinion piece in the Financial Times Friday, said the so-called bail-in mechanism should already come into force in 2015. (WSJ)

Current EU behavior isn't going to achieve what either side wants.

Even if Greece sticks to its reform path, the country will need fresh money this summer, according to Die Zeit's information. If a state insolvency is to be avoided, then the Europeans will need to jump in again. The Bundestag (lower house of parliament) may possibly have to discuss a third Greek package again. A double-digit billion euro amount is being discussed. Greece has already had two bailouts: €110bn in May 2010 and €130bn this year. Worryingly for Greece, the article suggests that the new rescue would come with further economic targets to meet. Greek have been withdrawing €800m a day from the nation's banks, reports CNBC, and stocking up on pasta and canned goods ahead of the weekend's elections. CNBC also claims that a host of biased and widely contradictory polls are being leaked - polls are not allowed this close to the election under Greek law. One apparently puts Syriza way ahead. But a "reputable pollster" told CNBC that this was "nonsense". The polls show that the picture has not changed much since the last polls were published. Parties may be leaking these numbers on purpose to boost their standing....

The EU method of economic reform is like sending in the panzers to stiffen up their army. The ultimate aim is undoubtedly what both sides want, but heaping economic penalties on the poorer members of Greek society will create misery and ultimately lead to political extremism. Either way it appears that the EU has no solution, and no ability to come to one. Current EU behavior isn't going to achieve what either side wants.

The International Monetary Fund is likely to offer minimal funds for a second Greek aid package

A dangerous development (for the whole Europe) - the faith of Greece is decided in the German Parliament - (is this the IVth. Reich ?) - Government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis, speaking to AFP: --We have a very, very good cooperation with the German government and it has contributed a lot in finalising the accord. Greece relies on this cooperation and hopes this will be borne out by the vote of the German parliament...The Greek Parliament meanwhile, has just passed a law on the debt swap with private bondholders. To complicare the issues, the IMF has consistently underestimated the depth of the Greek recession. At some point, it becomes rational for Greeks to ask, is the euro worth this kind of punishment? The new law - just passed by the Greek Parliament - is a key piece of the Greek plan and will help push through €107bn in debt write downs. The Government hopes that 66% of private creditors will agree to the haircut, allowing Athens to impose a Collective Action Clause to force the rest to follow. AFP points out that the Parliamentary vote was not in doubt as the two coalition government partners, the Socialists in PASOK and the conservative New Democracy party, have 193 of 300 seats in parliament. Three leftist parties as well as the extreme right opposed the bill, saying it would "be profitable for banks and monopolies and not the population," according to deputy Thanassis Pafilis. The package is no guarantee that the problems in Greece will be solved. Greece will have to take extensive measures and show that it implements the necessary reforms. By the way, it is uncertain when Greece will again get market access, making it therefore impossible to rule out that Greece needs extra public sector support.

Die Griechen sollen ihr Defizit 2009 falsch ausgewiesen haben - allerdings nicht zu niedrig, sondern zu hoch. Die angeblich falsche Zahl bekam allerdings den Segen der EU. Das Parlament untersucht den Fall. Ein parlamentarischer Untersuchungsausschuss soll in Athen untersuchen, ob die Zahlen zum griechischen Staatsdefizit 2009 manipuliert worden sind. Die Einsetzung des Gremiums beschloss das Parlament in der Nacht zu Donnerstag. Ermittlungen des Athener Staatsanwaltes Grigoris Peponis brachten die Affäre ins Rollen. Er verdächtigt den Chef der griechischen Statistikbehörde Elstat, Andreas Georgiou. Aber auch der frühere Ministerpräsident Giorgos Papandreou könnte in Misskredit geraten.

La récession frappe à nouveau les pays de l'euro, pour la seconde fois en trois ans. La zone monétaire verra son PIB se contracter de 0,3% en 2012, d'après des prévisions de la Commission européenne qui ne paraissent épargner que les deux plus grosses économies: la France et l'Allemagne. La révision en baisse - Bruxelles tablait encore à l'automne sur une hausse de l'activité de 0,5% - s'étend à l'ensemble de l'Union européenne. La France échappe au retournement avec un pronostic de croissance de 0,4%, à peu près en ligne avec les dernières prévisions du gouvernement Fillon (+ 0,5%). À défaut d'être une locomotive, l'Allemagne permet à l'UE d'éviter le pire. Avec une croissance attendue de 0,6 %, la première économie européenne tire ses voisins directs de l'enlisement, à l'image de la France, de l'Autriche (+ 0,7%), du Danemark (+ 1,1%) ou encore de la Pologne (+ 2,5%). Il existe deux exceptions de taille à l'effet d'entraînement: les Pays-Bas qui plongeraient de 0,9%, et la Belgique de 0,1%.

Debts imposed by "fiat", by governments or foreign financial agencies in the face of strong popular opposition may be tenuous...

Addressing the German parliament on Friday morning, Merkel insisted treaty changes and tighter regulation of erring eurozone members were the only way out of what she described as "the most difficult chapter in the history of the euro, if not the most difficult in the history of the European Union". To a packed Bundestag, Merkel said it was "absurd" to claim Germany was trying to "dominate" Europe – an accusation which has become ever more widespread after one of her MPs made goading comments that "Europe was now speaking German". Despite criticism that her indecisiveness is accelerating the possibility of a collapse of the single currency, Merkel preferred to focus on what had been agreed in recent months. "It's no exaggeration to say that we have achieved an incredible amount," she said. "In Europe we are now arguing and wrestling over the fine print, not about the plan as a whole," she added. "Anyone who, a few months ago, had said that at the end of the year 2011 we would have taken very serious and concrete steps towards a European stability union, a European fiscal union with powers of enforcement, would have been considered crazy," she said. On the euro zone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Merkel said: "I don't think we should talk ill of the EFSF, but think we should be realistic about what the EFSF can do." Germany was not trying to take over Europe, she said. "It's important for me to say to you this morning that you don't need to worry about the fears you hear or read about at the moment – that Germany wants to lead or dominate Europe or similar. It's absurd. It's true that we are pushing for a certain stability and growth culture, but we're doing this in the European spirit of Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl. European and German unification were and are two sides of the same medal and we will never forget it."...And I say : It is becoming more and more obvious that the financial sector is using successive financial crises to convince governments that that the economy will collapse if they do not “save the banks.” In doing so, the financial sector is consolidating its control over policy by way of financial proxies called technocrats.

Germany is thought to be pushing hard for banks to take a 60% write-down on their holdings of Greek government bonds, but France had been insisting the cut shouldn't be much higher than 40%, EU officials have said in recent days. WSJ's Brian Blackstone reports that while European leaders are scrambling to strike a deal to rescue ailing economies, a new business survey paints a pessimistic picture of economic strength. The banks are signaling that a 60% cut wouldn't be deemed voluntary and could trigger a raft of claims for insurance contracts, known as credit-default swaps, to cover bond losses, according to senior euro-zone and International Monetary Fund officials. Late Monday, Charles Dallara, the head of the IIF, warned of "severe contagion" if the euro zone imposes a non-voluntary deal. He said there are "limits" to what can be called a voluntary deal. While euro-zone national governments—and the commission—are saying officially that they want a voluntary deal, one euro-zone official said it is clear that some in Germany would rather impose a "brutal" restructuring and that Greece's private creditors are aware that if they don't compromise, a large Greek haircut will be unilaterally imposed. "The bankers know that if they don't play ball the risk of a hard restructuring is still there," the person said. Failure to pin down specifics on the future of the EFSF at the EU summit could keep pressure on the fund's borrowing costs, which have climbed over the last few weeks amid the uncertainty.

Investors flooded into the safe arms of German bonds Monday, and European banks dialed back lending to their riskier peers, in a clear sign that fears of a destabilizing collapse in Greece persist despite fresh efforts over the weekend to shore up the troubled country's finances. The alarm sounded across Europe's beleaguered periphery. Early in the day, Italy paid a steep price to issue short-term treasury bills, borrowing for three months at the same rate the U.S. commands for 10 years. Bond yields in Spain and Portugal rose, too. Greek bonds were at panic levels: more than 20% for 10-year lending and 75% for two, though few buyers were willing to take the plunge. The big mistake by design (Germany is also in dire straights - it is NOT a strong economy since it has no assets or resources) -German government-bond yields meanwhile fell to record lows—1.72% for 10-year bonds—as investors sought the security of the Continent's strongest economy. The action was a disquieting response to a furious bid by Greece to raise fresh cash. Sunday, the country's finance minister outlined a plan to cover a €2 billion ($2.73 billion) shortfall with a special property tax—to be collected on property owners' electric bills, the better to be assured it is actually paid.

FRANKFURT — Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on Sunday re-emphasized her opposition to issuing bonds backed by all the euro zone countries, a position that will be greeted enthusiastically by many of her fellow citizens but could unsettle investors at the beginning of what could be another difficult week in global financial markets. Mrs. Merkel told ZDF television in an interview broadcast Sunday that the so-called euro bonds would be an option only in the distant future. “It will not be possible to solve the current crisis with euro bonds,” she said. She added that “politicians can’t and won’t simply run after the markets.” “The markets want to force us to do certain things,” she added. “That we won’t do. Politicians have to make sure that we’re unassailable, that we can make policy for the people.” The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, echoed Mrs. Merkel’s comments, saying that common debt would make it easier for governments to avoid pursuing responsible fiscal policies. In any case, he told the newspaper Welt am Sonntag, it would take too long for countries in the euro zone to amend the treaty on monetary union, which would probably be required to allow the issuance of such bonds. “We have to solve the crisis within the existing treaty,” Mr. Schäuble said. The statements by the German leaders are in tune with public opinion in Germany as well as in other countries, like the Netherlands. The Dutch finance minister, Jan Kees de Jager, told the magazine Der Spiegel in an interview published Sunday that Mrs. Merkel should remain firm in her opposition to euro bonds.

The recent Franco-Prussian, upssss, Franco-German summit in Paris between Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy, the latest in a series of failed attempts by the deluded duo to overcome the sovereign debt crisis, ended with ringing tones of a "true European economic government". Cue alarm bells this side of the Channel at the prospect of the 17-strong eurozone at the very least being transformed into a fully-fledged fiscal union, nay a united federal state, with headquarters in Berlin. Germany would dictate the terms of its creation, oversee it and severely punish those which failed to live up to its own standards of Disziplin und Ordnung, Sparsamkeit und Stabilität.This paranoid fantasy was expressed most crudely in yesterday's Daily Mail by Simon Heffer, whose lengthy rant, not only eurotoxic but virulently anti-German, ended with the phrase: "Welcome to the Fourth Reich." Pitiful if it were not so perniciously poisonous.Even the notion that Merkel and Sarkozy are talking about an "economic government" is wholly erroneous. When the German chancellor talks of Wirtschaftsregierung or the French president of gouvernement économique the Brits would say "economic governance". In Paris it's shorthand for reining back politically the European Central Bank's independence; in Berlin for fiscal probity. The Franco-German pair did little more on Tuesday than rehearse arguments and notions that date back to at least earlier this year for improved economic governance in the wake of the initial Greek crisis. This means turning the EU's discredited stability and growth pact into a more effective mechanism for preventing excessive budget deficits, imposing stricter debt ceilings and resolving economic imbalances.

End of the Wirtschaftswunder? - Carsten Brzeski of ING said that the German data was a "growth normalisation" rather than a "disappointment" on its own, as Germany should still grow by at least 3% this year. He warned, though, that the German economic recovery is clearly slowing. "Looking ahead, the million-dollar question is whether a solid second quarter is the beginning of the end of the German Wirtschaftswunder [economic miracle] and whether recent market turmoil could push the economy back into recession," said Brzeski. "While German politicians are currently racking their brains on the pros and cons of common eurobonds, the luxury of having an economy running at 'wonder' speed is fading away." Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities, said the German data will "only add to the concern of the market that we are running into headwinds that are going to make a difficult situation even worse". French and German officials have already indicated that Merkel and Sarkozy will not discuss the idea of issuing eurobonds – debt backed by the whole eurozone rather than individual countries. Jenkins believes that eurobonds appear to be the "least worst option at this stage". He said: "A temporary fiscal union may be the endgame, where you have common bond issuance for five years that replaces all individual sovereign bond issuance, after which time that is phased back in over, say another five years. Thus you retain a modicum of moral hazard." Stock markets across Europe fell in early trading, with the FTSE 100 dropping 73 points to 5277. The euro lost ground against the dollar, as traders reacted to the news that Germany had reached near-stagnation. "Following on the back of weak GDP data announced by France this will further undermine any efforts to resolve the eurozone debt crisis," said Max Johnson, a broker at forex specialist, Currency Solutions. But he added: "Looking around the global economy, at least there will be few, if any, cases of schadenfreude."

LONDON—Europe's financial markets plunged after a volatile, nervy open Tuesday, following another wave of stock selling in Asia, with investors focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the global day. To say that the market will be watching closely "would go down as a great under-statement," said analysts at Rabobank, especially given Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's belief that the effectiveness of past quantitative easing can be seen in the buoyancy of stock prices. By 0830 GMT, London's FTSE 100 index was down 4.8%, the CAC 40 in Paris was down 3.8% and the DAX in Frankfurt had lost 7%; all had risen soon after the open. Despite a torrid Asia session Tuesday, which saw the Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo end down 1.7%, there was some relief, especially in the Australian market. There, stocks made a dramatic recovery from over 5% down to close 1.2% higher, while the Australian dollar climbed off a four-month low of $0.9927 to $1.0167 at 0810 GMT. Traders said that some profit taking on short positions in Asia, in currencies such as the Australian dollar, had led to some buying of risk currencies in Europe. The euro was at $1.4233 at 0810 GMT, well above the Asian low of $1.4152. Elsewhere, yields on Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds fell further early Tuesday after the European Central Bank bought the bonds of both countries for the first time Monday and then did so again Tuesday. Spanish 10-year yields dropped to 4.995%, according to Tradeweb, 0.21 percentage point tighter versus safe-haven German bunds. Italian 10-year bonds tightened 0.20 percentage point versus bunds to yield 5.14%. The ECB was widely expected to maintain its presence in the market to stop Italian and Spanish yields drifting higher again.

The ECB's U-turn on buying Spanish and Italian bonds may suggest that the eurozone's financial establishment is edging towards fiscal union. But don't confuse a shuffle, performed over a weekend in the midst of a crisis, with the real thing. German public opinion will continue to dictate chancellor Angela Merkel's freedom to act. Will the ECB “sterilize” its purchases?... So far, the ECB has said it isn’t printing euros to run its secondary-market bond buying program (which has been going for more than a year for Greece, Ireland and Portugal). That’s because for every euro it spends on government bonds, it vacuums up a euro–thus there’s no net increase in liquidity. Up to now, the ECB has done this every week by taking in deposits; the volume is now at €74 billion. Can the ECB continue to do this if the volume is several times bigger? We are somewhere in Act IV or V of the euro-zone debt drama, but, lo!, the European Central Bank has descended, deus ex machine, to buy Italian and Spanish bonds. This is a major, major development. Here are three things to consider. How long will it last?.... The ECB very much did not want this role of crisis-fighter of last resort. For months, it had agitated for euro-zone governments to seize the mantle. The governments’ attempt, at the July 21 summit, was judged too little by markets, and the rout of Italy commenced. The governments then made clear they weren’t interrupting their August holidays to do anything else before the fall, and so the crisis was left to the folks in Frankfurt. Look for them to try hard come September to hand it off to Paris, Berlin and Brussels. This is the crux of the euro-zone tug-of-war: Do the governments of the strong countries tax their citizens to pay for the rescue? Or does the ECB create euros to pay for it?

The European Central Bank will hold a conference call of its governing council to discuss its response to the debt crisis, an ECB source said. Italy's pledge to speed up austerity measures and whether the ECB should buy Italian government bonds are expected to be discussed. S&P's downgrading of the US credit rating on Friday added to fears over debt levels and economic growth in the world's biggest economy and in large European nations, such as Italy and Spain. As the effect was felt across the globe, China, the largest foreign holder of US debt, issued an extraordinary demand that Washington change its economic ways and address its "debt addiction". It said the rating reduction would be followed by more "devastating credit rating cuts" and global financial turbulence if the US failed to learn to "live within its means". "China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," it said. It also insisted the US should slash its "gigantic military expenditure and bloated social welfare costs", and repeated its demand for a new global reserve currency to replace the dollar. In London, opinion was split between those who believed the markets would take the US credit decision in their stride and others who believed it could trigger a series of events that would do untold damage to the global financial system. "The US government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone," the statement continued.

America did receive some support yesterday, with Francois Baroin, France's finance minister, insisting that he had total confidence in the US economy, while Russia said it would keep the current level of its US investments in national reserve funds.

Eurozone - Remedy won't be available soon - Faced with the prospect of the Eurozone crisis spreading to Spain, Italy and Cyprus, "Eurozone governments are accelerating efforts to bolster their €440bn rescue fund", reports the Financial Times. On July 21, "they agreed to equip the EFSF with the ability to repurchase the bonds of stricken governments on open markets, provide them with short-term lines of credit and cash to help recapitalise ailing banks." With Spanish and Italian risk premiums on the rise, "the ability to repurchase Spanish or Italian bonds at distressed prices would be one way to help stabilise the markets". "Yet European diplomats and officials acknowledged that it would be weeks – and possibly months – before the EFSF’s new powers could be put to use", notes the FT, reporting that officials of the Eurozone are accelerating their work to produce a draft document. The final text would then have to "be signed by the 17 Eurozone governments, and then undergo a ratification process that includes parliamentary approval in most of those countries."

EURO-ZONE - Fears that the eurozone crisis is escalating and further evidence of the weakness in the US economy drove stock markets lower on Wednesday as policy makers failed to restore confidence in global markets. The FTSE 100 index closed at its lowest level since November, after its biggest one day fall for nine months of 133 points. After a nerve-racking day Wall Street narrowly avoided its ninth consecutive day of falls – a losing streak unseen since 1978. A much anticipated speech by Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, was delayed until European markets closed but failed to calm the storm on international financial markets that threatens to engulf his country and imperil the entire eurozone. Italy and Spain – whose prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has cut short his summer holiday – are now at the centre of the eurozone debt crisis that began with Greece more than a year ago and has enveloped Ireland and Portugal. European commission president José Manuel Barroso tried to inject calm into the markets by insisting that record high yields – interest rates – on Spanish and Italian government bonds were "unwarranted". "Developments in the sovereign bond markets of Italy and Spain are a cause of deep concern," Barroso said.

European politicians had hoped their deal on 21 July to bailout Greece for a second time and impose losses on bond holders would restore confidence in the eurozone. Their efforts have failed, particularly as US debt crisis compounded the febrile atmosphere in the markets. In France, shares in the second largest bank Société Générale were temporarily suspended – they eventually closed 9% lower in heavy turnover – after it took a €395m (£345m) hit on its exposure to Greece because of its contribution to the bailout plan. Concerns were also mounting that banks across the eurozone were finding difficulties in funding themselves on the markets. Huw van Steenis, banks analyst at Morgan Stanley, said: "Investors, we and some banks are increasingly concerned that funding markets won't reopen with sufficient depth or at good enough terms for Italian and Spanish issuers, requiring banks to take offsetting measures". Berlusconi's statement to the lower house of parliament faced immediate criticism for failing to tackle the problems facing the Italian economy even though he promised to work with unions and employers on a reform of Italy's notoriously rigid employment laws. He drew attention to the fact that his government had earlier given the green light to €9bn of infrastructure projects which he said would promote growth, especially in the poorer south.

Germany staged an impressive recovery from the 2008/2009 global economic crisis, but there are increasing signs that the boom is now coming to an end. After almost two years of strong growth, its economic outlook is starting to deteriorate, due to a slowdown in major emerging markets including China and fears of a possible United States recession caused by $2.4 trillion in spending cuts linked to the debt ceiling deal. Various indicators released in recent weeks point to a deceleration of Europe's largest economy. The Ifo business climate index for July fell sharply to its lowest level in nine months, and analysts say it is likely to keep dropping. The ZEW investor sentiment index showed the weakest level since January 2009. And the Markit/BME purchasing managers' index for the German manufacturing sector fell 2.6 points in July to 52 points, its lowest level since October 2009. "New order levels went into reverse in July, as fewer export sales helped end a two-year period of sustained growth," Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said. German engineering orders in June rose by just 1 percent year-on-year, after having jumped 21 percent in May, the VDMA engineering industry association said. "There are initial indications that demand for investment goods has become less dynamic in Germany and in the other euro member states," said VDMA economist Olaf Wortmann. In addition, top German firms have given more cautious outlooks for the remainder of 2011. Analysts have been paying particularly close attention to what is being said by the chemicals industry, which is regarded as a bellwether for the general industrial outlook because it supplies many different sectors.

Begining with 2006 International credit rating agencies were paid billions of dollars to bundle junk debt for international financiers. All the international credit rating agencies bundled the junk debt and then rated all this junk as AAA+ risk free investments, and having paid the credit rating agencies to do this on their behalf, crooked financiers then sold these junk investments to European banks - making them go bust. Then European politicians decided - the banks can't crash - we must let each state go bankrupt and each state crash instead and take on all this debt from the private sector - (miss-rated by the credit rating agencies and miss-sold by international financiers). And then what happens - the same credit rating agencies start waging war on Europe on behalf of the same international financiers that stole our money - to force Europe to sell all their assets - and the international financiers are using the money they stole from European banks to now buy up the European state assets that we are being blackmailed into selling. This is war - just because there are no bullets, bombs or tanks on our streets - the result is the same These financiers are using the money they stole from Europe to buy up our assets and European companies to ensure they control everything and that the people of Europe have to work longer without pensions, have no state benefits, have no national assets and no armies, navy or air force to defend our selves. While our governments wage war on Libyan people our politicians are too cowardly to wage war right back on the international financiers and the credit rating agencies on our behalf . Why are our governments not investigating this financial war being waged on us and why did they force our states to take on this private sector debt. We should all stand together in Europe and tell the financial sector - every single penny of banking debt is being put into one pot and we are not paying a penny of it until every single transaction and credit rating decision on every penny of the debt is investigated. And if the credit rating agencies were found to be fraudulent in their ratings - then the credit rating agencies take on the debt and also has to pay compensation and punitive damages for each bundle of debt they miss-rated and miss-sold to European banks. This is war and it is time our politicians took the war straight back to the people that are causing it.

Personally, I don’t trust the banks to even get their hair cut to the extent they’re promising. They remain the spivs and dissemblers they’ve always been – and bank accounting is the most surreal (as in open to every trick in the book) of any business with which I’ve ever worked. To count obviously bad debts as assets is, let’s face it, a truly Swiftian idea. So probably, S&P is right to be saying Greece won’t make it. I mean that in the sense that it will be proved right with little or no risk to its reputation. For a commonsense "southerner" like me, it’s glaringly obvious Greece will default: it won’t make the asset sales targets it needs, and it won’t make the growth targets either.The ratings agencies agree with The Slog – not a position I’m that happy with, because on the whole they’re just as mad as the lenders and borrowers they monitor. However, there is no point in shooting the messenger, and one or two players in this mess are in touch with reality: German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble admitted yesterday, in a circular to his Christian Democratic Party colleagues, that ‘the euro-zone debt crisis isn’t over, and that more discipline is needed’. Er ist eine gute Eier, Herr Schäuble. The Treasury had to pay sharply higher rates to sell off €8bn in bonds including 4.80pc on bonds due in 2014 that had last sold for 3.68pc, and 5.77 percent on bonds due in 2021 compared with 4.94pc before. Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB index fell as much as 2pc, while the difference between the rate of return on Italian and German 10-year sovereign bonds - a key measure of the financial risks as perceived by investors - rose to near-record highs of around 330 basis points. The euro also fell by a cent against the dollar to $1.4269 and by 0.7cents against sterling to £0.8745. Investors are concerned that the Italian economy, suffering from high public debt, low growth and growing infighting in the government could follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal into a debt spiral that has thrown the eurozone into crisis. Tensions on the Italian bond market went down after a second bailout for Greece was agreed at a summit in Brussels last week but have returned on concerns over the details of the Greek rescue plan and US debt fears...I say..through away the phony currency - euro!!

With unemployment officially nudging 790,000 – although believed to be far bigger with the closure of some 150,000 small and medium-sized businesses over the past year – there are fears that Greece, the country at the centre of Europe's worst financial debacle in decades, is slipping inexorably into political and social crisis, too. Rising racist tensions and lawlessness on the streets this week spurred the soft-spoken mayor of Athens, Giorgos Kaminis, to describe the city as "beginning to resemble Beirut".With unemployment officially nudging 790,000 – although believed to be far bigger with the closure of some 150,000 small and medium-sized businesses over the past year – there are fears that Greece, the country at the centre of Europe's worst financial debacle in decades, is slipping inexorably into political and social crisis, too. Rising racist tensions and lawlessness on the streets this week spurred the soft-spoken mayor of Athens, Giorgos Kaminis, to describe the city as "beginning to resemble Beirut".

ATHENS—Greece was paralyzed by a nationwide general strike Wednesday as hundreds of thousands of workers, shopkeepers and civil servants walked off the job in a 24-hour protest over the government's austerity program. The strike affected public services, with government ministries, local government offices, courts and schools all closed, and hospitals and many state-owned enterprises running with reduced staff. Mass transit around the capital ground to a halt as bus, trolley, tram and subway operations were suspended, and Athens's electric rail operated on a reduced schedule. More than four dozen domestic flights were canceled ahead of a four-hour walkout by air traffic controllers, and ferry operations to Greece's islands were also suspended. "The austerity measures are beginning to affect all of society even more now. The economic situation is becoming very difficult for both Greek businesses and for workers," said Anthony Livanios, an independent political economist and commentator. "Even so, the government appears determined to continue with its policies." Recent public opinion polls showed seven out of ten Greeks expect the austerity program to continue even beyond 2013 when the current bailout deal with the EU and IMF ends. The ruling Socialists have seen their popularity drop sharply in the past year, although they still retain a 3.5 percentage-point lead over the center-right opposition.

BERLIN - The succession of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will not be a topic at this week's Group of 20 meeting and will be dealt with after March, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday. "We will then see (if there will be a German candidate). The important thing is that we will have a good candidate," Schaeuble added in an interview with German radio channel Deutschlandfunk.BCE,EURO,Dollar,RON,Crisis Agerpres, Mediafax
FRANKFURT - Emergency borrowing from the European Central Bank remained exceptionally elevated for a second straight day on Friday, intensifying speculation that one or more euro zone bank might be facing new funding problems. ECB figures showed banks borrowed more than 16 billion euros in high-cost emergency overnight funding, the highest amount since June 2009 and well above the 1.2 billion euros which banks were taking before the figure first jumped on Thursday. The ECB gives no breakdown of the borrowing figures and declined to comment on Friday when asked for an explanation for the jump. Traders remained unsure whether the spike was due to a serious funding issue or whether a bank had simply made an error earlier in the week by not borrowing enough at the ECB's regular weekly funding handout. If a bank, or number of banks, did not get enough funding, and were unable to make up the difference in open markets, they would be forced to use the ECB's emergency facility until the next ECB tender came around. The next ECB offering is on Tuesday, banks get the money on Wednesday, meaning any change would evident in figures published early on Thursday. "As no bank or banking group from any euro zone country is aggressively seeking money in the interbank market at the moment, it is likely that something went wrong at the main refinancing operation," said one euro zone money market trader. "The bank or banking group needs to tap the ECB for the money whether they like it or not, or they are doing that so as not to appear active on the money market and to thereby be stigmatized," he added

European bank shares were down 1 percent by 1100 GMT while the euro fell against the dollar and other major currencies for much of the morning. Money markets showed little reaction, however. Key euro bank-to-bank lending prices remained on a downward trajectory, a direction traditionally at odds with rising tensions. The theory that the spike was due to human error appeared to be supported by data from the ECB's latest weekly funding operation. Banks borrowed the lowest amount since June at the tender, 19 billion euros less than the previous week and well below expected demand of around 160 billion euros.

However, a monetary source in Italy, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the increase in borrowing was not a technical problem and was a sign that money markets were still not functioning correctly and geographically split in the wake of the global financial crisis. The source said the Italian banking system continued to have good access to money markets, while high-level Spanish financial source said the jump was not down to Spanish banks. The borrowing jump added extra complexity to the question of whether the ECB will scale back, or extend, its money market support measures at its next meeting on March 3.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in a recent interview that the health of money markets had improved, although Belgium's Guy Quaden said this week liquidity support remained necessary. "If the increased use of the marginal borrowing facility is due to new problems in the banking system this would call for an extension of the ECB's liquidity support," said UniCredit analyst Luca Cazzulani. "The ECB knows exactly who is borrowing the money and why they are doing it. If it is due to a mistake then it should not influence their thinking at all." The extra 0.75 percent which banks have to pay for overnight funding from the ECB normally means it is used only as a last resort. The last time before this week that overnight borrowing exceeded 10 billion euros was on June 24, 2009, when it was 28.7 billion euros, the highest ever. This year, emergency overnight borrowing has been above 1 billion euros only twice. Traders said while mistyping the required amount or missing the ECB's tender altogether would be an unlikely mistake, it could happen. "It would be a huge oversight and pretty unlikely but it is possible if a lot of things conspired against you," said one London-based money market trader. "If it is a mistake then someone's boss is not going to be very happy." A number of banks, mainly from the euro zone's most debt-strained countries but also troubled banks in core countries, remain barred from open money markets and almost completely dependent on the ECB for funding.